1. DEQ Water Supply Planning Integrating Monitoring, Modeling, and Scientific Study with Adaptive Management and Planning

2. DEQ-WSP Research Goals  Projecting the impact of future water use on surface water availability, and subsequent impact on instream resources (1,3,4)  Determining the extent of hydrologic alteration as a result of past, present, and future water use patterns (1,3)  Integrating water supply planning with water quality implementation – TMDL (2,6,7) 1.Stream and groundwater flow interactions 2.Levels of GW pollution 3.GW budgets by local area 4.Underground watersheds in Karst areas 5.Deepwater reservoirs 6.Air quality & water quality 7.Soil quality, water retention, water quality

3. DEQ-WSP Research Goals, cont.  Modeling water use alternatives to minimize the impact of withdrawals on instream resources, and maximize the availability for on/off-stream beneficial uses (1,2,6,7)  Developing decision support systems to integrate monitoring, modeling and scientific investigation with water supply planning (All) In areas of significant impacts, to enhance/restore beneficial flow patterns (where possible) 1.Stream and groundwater flow interactions 2.Levels of GW pollution 3.GW budgets by local area 4.Underground watersheds in Karst areas 5.Deepwater reservoirs 6.Air quality & water quality 7.Soil quality, water retention, water quality

4. Current DEQ-WSP Research  VA USGS to perform low-flow analysis in un-gaged streams (follow on to recently completed study to characterize low/base flows in gaged watersheds)  DEQ groundwater characterization group is expanding GW monitoring network: Expanded real-time well monitoring sites (Bath and Shenandoah county sites added this year, Page county site pending) Developing updated spring location inventory (last update was in 1928) Adding selected springs to monitoring network All expanded monitoring data is integrated with USGS NWIS system  Developing online water use reporting and planning application for creation and evaluation of long-term regional and state-wide water supply plans  Design of DSS prototype based on “Stream Habitat Modeling to Support Water Management Decisions in the North Fork Shenandoah River, Virginia” (VT-FWS 2004)

5. Prototype DSS – North Fork

6. DSS Components  USGS Real-time and Historical data Stream gage flow Groundwater well level (from adjacent basin)  NOAA gridded precipitation (4 km 2 grid)  Model of habitat response to stream flow Fish guild approach: riffle, fast generalist, pool-run, and pool-cover fishes Conditions conducive to “nuisance” algal blooms Drought flow levels defined for normal, watch, warning, and emergency  Hydrologic models Land-use effects on flow DEQ point source discharge data (quantity and quality) VWUDS water withdrawal data  Web-based DSS interface GIS components for navigation, visualization and analysis Software libraries for data retrieval from USGS NWIS system, and NOAA gridded precipitation data Software framework for generating model data inputs, executing models, and returning model output to the decision support system

7. Perceived Data/Analysis Gaps  Need to develop tools that facilitate the application of previous scientific, monitoring and modeling data/models into usable decision support systems Short to mid-term forecasting of stream flows for drought management Need to develop greater data sharing protocols, to bring data such as aquatic resource surveys, and implementation/response monitoring to the level currently exhibited by USGS monitoring data Need to develop criteria for evaluating the uncertainties in the data and models informing the DSS, and their appropriate range of application  Understanding historical surface and groundwater use impacts on stream flows (what is a “pre-development” flow, and is it necessary to know this)  Better understanding of the magnitude of agricultural water use, and the consumptive nature of all uses in general  Impact of groundwater withdrawals on base flows (short term and long term)