1. PPC Energy October 2012 THE ANNUAL REPORT Department of Energy Profs Lloyd & Uken Energy Institute Cape Peninsula University of Technology

2. PPC Energy October 2012 How did the Department do? It passed! It scored 31% –That means it got more than twice as much wrong as it got right! –As the Headmaster would say “Could do better – much better!” Let’s look at some examples

3. Our vision A transformed and sustainable energy sector with universal access to modern energy carriers for all by 2014. Improving our energy mix by having 30% clean energy by 2025. Good! But the first is not achievable, AND Something is missing from both ENOUGH ENERGY! PPC Energy October 2012

4. Enough energy? IRP2010 was approved by Cabinet in March 2011 The Department has a clear remit It was presented with a roadmap for meeting the demand forecast PPC Energy October 2012

5. Enough energy? PPC Energy October 2012 ?

6. Enough energy? Rounds 1 & 2 of REIPP have set in motion the 2100MW of installed renewable energy Good - - BUT It will only yield on average about 500MW Our demand goes up by 800MW annually There is progress on 3200MW nuclear OK - - but slow! PPC Energy October 2012

7. Enough energy? No progress on 4320MW of conventional energy Which would yield 3600MW on average Enough for over 4 years growth Give the Department 500MW renewable, 1100MW nuclear, 1600MW total Score 1600/ (1600 + 3600) = 31% PPC Energy October 2012

8. But why worry? Can’t we get by with saving electricity? And can’t we improve the efficiency of use? Yes - - we can, BUT We need to grow the economy And that means more energy PPC Energy October 2012

9. That means more energy There is a DIRECT relation between the wealth of a nation and the amount of energy it uses It is one of the strongest economic relationships known The International Energy Agency uses it to make forecasts Their predictions of 25 years ago are within 10% PPC Energy October 2012

10. That means more energy PPC Energy October 2012

11. That’s why we worry Being short of energy means –Being short of growth –Being short of jobs –Being poor –Being ill-fed –Having a short life That’s why we worry about a Department that only just passes PPC Energy October 2012

12. And the long-term vision? Improving our energy mix by having 30% clean energy by 2025. Good - - but All the Department’s effort goes into producing clean energy We need to worry about HAVING clean energy PPC Energy October 2012

13. Having clean energy Means having clear air over the Highveld in winter –Which means addressing the domestic use of coal –Which means having far fewer dying of CO poisoning –And the Department is making no progress on this PPC Energy October 2012

14. Having clean energy Means being able to cook and heat the home without indoor air pollution –Which means affordable sources of clean energy –And cheap electricity isn’t the answer –LP gas might be –And the Department is making minimal progress on this PPC Energy October 2012

15. Having clean energy Means having less shack fires –Which destroy about 50 000 homes annually Means burning less children –Spend a morning at the Red Cross hospital and you will see the problem And the Department is making no effort in this direction PPC Energy October 2012

16. Having clean energy Means having clean fuels for our cars –And the Department is making slow progress on this Score 1.5 out of 5 – 30% PPC Energy October 2012 ?

17. Is a pass good enough? There is some basis for our marking Could the Department do better? Should it do better? Does it really recognize how important energy is to our development? Does it really understand how important energy is to our people’s wellbeing? You be the judge! PPC Energy October 2012

18. Thank you for your kind attention! lloydp@cput.ac.za ukene@cput.ac.za