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Bharath Chandrashekhar Hui Li Rodrigo Serna Presented March 11, 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Bharath Chandrashekhar Hui Li Rodrigo Serna Presented March 11, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Bharath Chandrashekhar Hui Li Rodrigo Serna Presented March 11, 2014

2  Current Holdings – Current Holdings of AL  Relevant Macroeconomic Trends  Industry Structure Analysis  Company Overview  Financial Analysis  Projections/Assumptions  Valuation  Recommendation 2

3 3

4 400 shares of AL purchased on 12/18/12 @ 22.32 Closed @ 37.09 on 3/10/14 4

5 + Global Airline Market + Global GDP Growth + European & Asian Markets + Budget Airlines + Increase in % of Global Fleet Leased - Emerging Markets +/- Consolidation of Industry 5 Source: CIT Aerospace Aircraft Leasing Industry Overview (p26, p29) Caption: Percentage of Fleets Leased in Geographic Areas

6 Industry Landscape /Competition MEDIUM Bargaining Power of Suppliers HIGH Threat of Substitutes LOW Threat of New Entrants LOW Bargaining Power of Buyers MEDIUM 6

7 Air Lease Boeing Airbus Airlines Financing 7

8  Unsecured Debt (70% of Total Debt): Flexibility  BBB- from S&P, Aug 2013 Source: AL 2013 10K P45 8

9 Source: AL 2013 10K P46 9

10 Source: AL 2013 10K P5-6 10

11 StrengthsWeaknesses  Management Team  Low Composite Interest Rate  Young Fleet Portfolio  Fixed Rental Income vs. Floated Interest Payment  High supplier concentration for commercial aircraft OpportunitiesThreats  Economic Recovery  Companies in emerging markets are in need of leased aircraft  Lawsuit: The “AIG/ILFC Complaint” to Cross Complaint  Emerging Markets  Rising Interest Rate 11

12 2010201120122013 Revenues Rental of flight equipment$57,075$332,719$645,853$836,516 Interest and other1,2914,0229,89322,159 Total revenues58,366336,741655,746858,675 Revenue Growth476.95%94.73%30.95% Expenses Interest11,06244,862130,419168,743 Amortization of discounts and deferred debt issue costs4,8839,48116,99423,627 Extinguishment of debt-3,349-- Amortization of convertible debt discounts35,798--- Interest expense51,74357,692147,413192,370 % of Revenue90.66%17.34%22.82%23.00% Depreciation of flight equipment19,262112,307216,219280,037 Selling, general and administrative24,23244,55956,45371,212 Stock-based compensation24,04439,34231,68821,614 Total expenses119,281253,900451,773565,233 Income (loss) before taxes(60,915)82,841203,973293,442 Income tax (expense) benefit8,875(29,609)(72,054)(103,031) Net income (loss)(52,040)53,232131,919190,411 % Profit Margin-15.8%20.1%22.2% 12

13 20142015201620172018 Fleet Size228263283307338 % Growth28.3%15.4%7.6%8.5%10.1% Income Statement Revenue from rental of flight equipment$1,094,459$1,287,718$1,413,356$1,563,881$1,756,233 Revenue from interest and other31,26639,67246,95856,03464,776 Interest Expense249,221290,353315,557345,742384,460 Depreciation of flight equipment359,563415,174447,192485,602535,171 Selling, general and administrative90,058106,191116,825129,593145,681 Stock-based compensation16,88619,91121,90524,29927,315 Net Income$266,499$322,245$363,242$412,542$473,448 % Growth40.0%20.9%12.7%13.6%14.8% $ of Revenue from rental of flight equipment / Plane$4,800$4,896$4,994$5,094$5,196 % Growth2.0% $ of Revenue from interest and other / Plane137151166183192 % Growth10% 5% $ of Interest Expense / Plane1,0931,1041,1151,1261,137 % Growth1.0% $ Depreciation of flight equipment / Plane$1,577$1,579$1,580$1,582$1,583 % Growth0.1% $ Selling, general and administrative / Total revenue8.0% $ Stock-based compensation / Plane1.5% Balance Sheet Total shareholders' equity2,730,3562,954,2453,196,4933,458,6053,742,211 % Growth8.2% 13

14 GeneralReturn on InvestmentLTM Leverage Ratios ImpliedDebt / Net Debt / ROICROEROADiv. YieldTot. Cap.EBITDA CompanyTickerFYE(%) (x) Air Lease CorpALDec-31 3.62%7.55%2.04%1.32% 69.88%10.2x9.7x AerCap HoldingsAERDec-313.80%12.04%3.10%1.13%72.27%9.6x9.2x FLY Leasing LimitedFLYDec-312.02%8.48%1.52%3.05%79.41%11.4x10.5x Aircastle LTDAYRDec-310.82%1.81%0.48%16.24%69.43%11.5x9.5x Mean 2.21%7.44%1.70%6.81% 73.70%10.839.73 Median 2.02%8.48%1.52%3.05% 72.27%11.409.50 High 3.80%12.04%3.10%16.24% 79.41%11.5x10.5x Low 0.82%1.81%0.48%1.13% 69.43%9.6x9.2x 14

15 20142015201620172018 Net Income266,499322,245363,242412,542473,448 Minus Increase in Shareholders' Equity(206,422)(223,308)(241,575)(261,336)(282,714) Ending Shareholders' Equity2,729,8562,953,1633,194,7383,456,0743,738,788 Terminal Value4,649,523 Equity Cash Flow60,07798,937121,667151,2068,579,046 Present Value of Total Equity4,977,471 Shares Outstanding108,963,550 Implied Share Price45.68 Terminal Growth Rate2.5% Discount Rate12.9% Growth Rate of Shareholders' Equity8.2% Terminal Growth Rate $45.681.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5% Discount Rate 10.9%52.4454.1656.0858.2460.70 11.9%47.6248.9750.4652.1253.97 12.9%43.4444.5145.6846.9748.39 13.9%40.1341.0041.9642.9944.13 14.9%37.1437.8638.6439.4940.41 Growth of Shareholders' Equity 45.686.2%7.2%8.2%9.2%10.2% Discount Rate 10.9%56.4656.2756.0855.8855.67 11.9%50.8650.6650.4650.2550.04 12.9%46.1045.8945.6845.4645.24 13.9%42.3942.1741.9641.7341.49 14.9%39.0938.8738.6438.4038.16 15

16 16

17 400 Shares HOLD 17


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