1. Order From Strength GECAFS Scenario Workshop November 23, 2005

2. Order From Strength Scenario Outline of Presentation Brief Introduction Brief Introduction Draft Storyline Draft Storyline Global Context Global Context Caribbean Context Caribbean Context Global and Caribbean Environmental Changes Global and Caribbean Environmental Changes Caribbean Food System Caribbean Food System Focus Focus

3. Introduction

4. Order From Strength Scenario To sketch plausible future changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions that will affect food systems To sketch plausible future changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions that will affect food systems This scenario depicts a reactive regional perspective of the future This scenario depicts a reactive regional perspective of the future It is a scenario of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) It is a scenario of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA)

5. The Scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

6. Order From Strength Scenario This scenario puts Food Security First over to Markets and Policies (Global Orchestration) and Sustainability (Techno Garden and Adapting Mosaic) This scenario puts Food Security First over to Markets and Policies (Global Orchestration) and Sustainability (Techno Garden and Adapting Mosaic) In developing the scenario: examined historical events over past 50 years that had major impacts on Food Systems In developing the scenario: examined historical events over past 50 years that had major impacts on Food Systems

7. Order From Strength Scenario Then grouped : Then grouped : Demographic Demographic Economic Economic Socio-political Socio-political Cultural Cultural Science and Technology Science and Technology Biophysical (GEC) Biophysical (GEC)

8. The Storyline

9. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Global Context Multiple terrorist attacks in 2010 Multiple terrorist attacks in 2010 USA and EU: Decreased immigration and open trade – negative impacts on individual nations USA and EU: Decreased immigration and open trade – negative impacts on individual nations Oil prices increase Oil prices increase

10. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Caribbean Context CSME given a stronger hand. Move to strengthen role for stronger regional trade and mitigate future trade shocks CSME given a stronger hand. Move to strengthen role for stronger regional trade and mitigate future trade shocks 2010-2015: new regional planning system for countries – some give up sovereignty to allow more regional governance 2010-2015: new regional planning system for countries – some give up sovereignty to allow more regional governance GDP moves from 1.4% in 2000 to 1% in 2050 GDP moves from 1.4% in 2000 to 1% in 2050 Technological some paces behind global levels Technological some paces behind global levels

11. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Caribbean Context Pressures from consumers Pressures from consumers Failure to compete – heavy fallout Failure to compete – heavy fallout A “Food First” Policy focusing on Food Security is implemented A “Food First” Policy focusing on Food Security is implemented Some public technology available. Formal technology transfer from other regions reduced Some public technology available. Formal technology transfer from other regions reduced Local citizen pressure force policy-makers to try to create stable economies Local citizen pressure force policy-makers to try to create stable economies Stronger state control of resources realized Stronger state control of resources realized

12. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Caribbean Context GMOs dominating, agric sector bombarded. Governments forced to implement systems to enable proper monitoring. There is need for increased testing using a multi-faceted approach. Relevant authorities being asked to assess: GMOs dominating, agric sector bombarded. Governments forced to implement systems to enable proper monitoring. There is need for increased testing using a multi-faceted approach. Relevant authorities being asked to assess: Direct health effects Direct health effects Tendencies to evoke allergic reactions Tendencies to evoke allergic reactions Specific components thought to have nutritional or toxic properties Specific components thought to have nutritional or toxic properties Stability of the inserted gene Stability of the inserted gene

13. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Global and Caribbean Environmental Changes By 2015 have further degradation of the ozone layer; increased salinization in GUY and SUR By 2015 have further degradation of the ozone layer; increased salinization in GUY and SUR By 2020: Increased frequency and severity of hurricanes – difficult to recover; fear of risks; detrimental effect on agri systems; still no concrete plans in place to address By 2020: Increased frequency and severity of hurricanes – difficult to recover; fear of risks; detrimental effect on agri systems; still no concrete plans in place to address

14. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Global and Caribbean Environmental Changes Still abundant food availability but more countries having difficulty accessing foods Still abundant food availability but more countries having difficulty accessing foods Oil prices soaring but ability of the ecosystem to support pharmaceuticals and biochemicals decreasing Oil prices soaring but ability of the ecosystem to support pharmaceuticals and biochemicals decreasing Air quality, climate regulations, water regulations erosion control, pest and disease control (plants and animals) cannot be sustained Air quality, climate regulations, water regulations erosion control, pest and disease control (plants and animals) cannot be sustained

15. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Global and Caribbean Environmental Changes Global and Caribbean Environmental Changes Inability of the ecosystem to provide the services to ensure material well-being, health, freedom of choice Inability of the ecosystem to provide the services to ensure material well-being, health, freedom of choice Increased AIDS and crime – reduction in productive years of life Increased AIDS and crime – reduction in productive years of life

16. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Caribbean Food System Increased pressures on land and fisheries – increased natural resource degradation Increased pressures on land and fisheries – increased natural resource degradation Increased agriculture – more attention to proper cultivation or less involvement – more erosion and degradation Increased agriculture – more attention to proper cultivation or less involvement – more erosion and degradation OR may have fallout of agriculture with GMOs and so preservation of land, wildlife etc – more ecotourism OR may have fallout of agriculture with GMOs and so preservation of land, wildlife etc – more ecotourism Shocks will hit harder Shocks will hit harder

17. Order From Strength Scenario: The Storyline Focus Food security and Food safety: Food security and Food safety: Countries still battling with outdated legislation and the ability to monitor food safety particularly with respect to GM foods Countries still battling with outdated legislation and the ability to monitor food safety particularly with respect to GM foods Major Challenges Major Challenges Demonstrating to the consumer that the foods available are safe Demonstrating to the consumer that the foods available are safe Surveillance systems Surveillance systems Epidemiological investigations and outbreaks Epidemiological investigations and outbreaks Advanced lab capabilities Advanced lab capabilities Standardized reporting Standardized reporting

19. Thank You