1. 1 Hard Choices Ahead Climate Change and Energy ENV-M594 : 27 th February 2009 N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation CRed Carbon Reduction

2. How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change? Background: Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Background:

3. Oil: Comparison of Discoveries and Demand 3 We need to consider alternatives now How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change

4. 4 UK Gas Production and Demand Import Gap

5. 5 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? China 5

6. 6 6 How carbon friendly is the Energy we use? Why is there such a difference between one country and another?

7. 7 Why has France a much lower carbon emission per capita than UK? Why has Germany and the Netherlands a higher factor? How carbon friendly is the Energy we use? Carbon emission factors: –Direct use of fuels: natural gas ~ 0.188 kg/kWh (varies slightly) oil (depending on grade) ~ 0.25 kg/kWh coal (depending on grade) ~ 0.30 kg/kWh –Electricity (including losses in transmission): Coal Generation ~ 1000 g / kWH Oil Generation ~ 900 g / kWH Gas Generation ~ 400 g / kWh Nuclear Generation ~ 5 – 10 g / kWH

8. 8 How carbon friendly is the Energy we use? Luxembourg UK

9. 9 Carbon Emissions and Electricity 9

10. r 10 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

11. 11 Electricity Generation Carbon Emission Factors Coal ~ 1.0 kg / kWh Oil ~ 0.9 kg/kWh Gas (CCGT) ~ 0.4 kg/kWh Nuclear 0.01 ~ 0.03 kg/kWh November December January February Current UK mix ~ 0.54 kg/kWh

12. 12 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 12

13. 13 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 13

14. 14 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

15. 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

16. 16 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

17. 17 Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

20. 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

21. 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

22. 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

23. 23 Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more & close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size

24. 24 If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present. Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

25. 25 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? -the North Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

26. How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change? Background: Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities

27. 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 相当于每人排放 5 个热气球 4 million over Norfolk 400 万诺福克 In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person 在发展中国 家，这一水平低于 1 个热气球 Is this Fair? 这公平吗？ On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. 每一个英国人每年排放 9 吨 CO 2 “Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little.” ‘ 没有人犯的错误比他不做任何事更大，因为他认为他的行动 微不足道 Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

28. 28 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 20 - 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year Filling up with petrol (~£45 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

29. 29 The Behavioural Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. Education/Awareness is important

30. How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change? Background: Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities

31. 31 Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

32. 32 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

33. 33 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy 2007 2008

34. 34 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

35. 35 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. A church not connected to grid e.g. Fishley, with services only once a week PV would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage??????? Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3700 kWh per year

36. 36 Micro CHP Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled. Replace the normal boiler But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat – electrical generation will be limited. Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar photovoltaic? In community schemes explore opportunity for multiple unit provision of hot water in summer, but only single unit in winter.

37. 37 Other Renewable Technologies Micro Wind Vertical Axis Mini Wind

38. 38 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum

39. 39 Throttle Valve Condenser Heat supplied to house Evaporator Heat extracted from outside Low Temperature Low Pressure High Temperature High Pressure Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Compressor Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.

40. 40 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions The Heat Pump Images from RenEnergy Website

41. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community 41 How we as local communities respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change

42. 42 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. 42

43. 43 Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Mini Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed Involve the local Community

44. 44 Involve the local Community The Broadsol Project Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

45. Conclusions (1) Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Global Warming will not only have adverse effects on our brothers and sisters in the developing world, but within the next 10 years we could also be faced with energy shortages unless we act now. 45

46. 46 www2.env.uea.ac.uk/gmmc/energy/env-M594/m594_2009.ppt This presentation is available from at: Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Conclusions (2) Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."