Make introductory remarks.

Make introductory remarks.
Mention quickly who the GA Partnership is and what we do. Mention partnership with Georgia Chamber of Commerce and local chamber on this program. We started the Economics of Education 3 years ago with the GA Chamber of Commerce and raised awareness in communities across the state on the impact of quality education on economic development. What has changed in that 3 years – globalization and greater emphasis on workforce development, as well as economic viability for our communities. Georgia Southern helped by providing research and data on community impact of high school non-completion. As we move through the presentation, we will talk about major milestones that lead to academic achievement… School readiness Literacy by 3rd grade Numeracy by 8th grade Slides can be secured from the Partnership website:

Georgia Academy for Economic Development
1 Examine the Data for Education in Georgia 2 Economic Impact of Georgia Non-Graduates 3 Strengthening the Birth to Work Pipeline 4 What Can We Do? Make introductory remarks. Mention quickly who the GA Partnership is and what we do. Mention partnership with Georgia Chamber of Commerce and local chamber on this program. We started the Economics of Education 3 years ago with the GA Chamber of Commerce and raised awareness in communities across the state on the impact of quality education on economic development. What has changed in that 3 years – globalization and greater emphasis on workforce development, as well as economic viability for our communities. Georgia Southern helped by providing research and data on community impact of high school non-completion. As we move through the presentation, we will talk about major milestones that lead to academic achievement… School readiness Literacy by 3rd grade Numeracy by 8th grade Slides can be secured from the Partnership website:

Examine the Data for Education in Georgia
We’ll start with a look at current data.

Academic Achievement Milestones
School Readiness Literacy by 3rd Grade Numeracy by 8th Grade High School Graduation We’ve referenced several times the milestones that lead to work-ready and college-ready students. As communities are looking at the Governor’s Work-ready Initiative, they most begin looking at the data and how their community measures up at each level. One of the key points to become a Certified Work Ready Community is to improve high school graduation rates. Research says we can’t wait until the end of the pipeline, we must address each of these milestones along the way. The AEAH (Alliance of Education Agency Heads) is looking at the entire education pipeline and how each agency can be much more efficient with its resources. NOTE: See page 24 of publication. Workforce and/or College Ready

Percent of Children Age 3-5 Enrolled in Early Education, 2008
Georgia 63% United States 61% This chart shows a different year and a different data base from the previous slide but helps give a comparison of Georgia to other states. States just do not have the same way of calculating high school graduation rates yet. But, of the states that are represented by their governors in the National Governors Association, 20 (including Georgia) have agreed to a common calculation method. The calculations will begin with last year’s freshman class; when that group graduates, we will have a much better number to compare states. Source: The Annie E. Casey Foundation, KIDS COUNT Data Center.

NAEP 2009 4th Grade Reading At or Above Basic
Georgia 63% United States 65% First, let’s look at NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) scores. NAEP is the best test to compare our students against students in other states and to compare school systems in our own state. It is not done in every grade, is a sample and given every other year. We mentioned the milestones that need to be reached with one of them being literacy by 3rd grade. We don’t do NAEP at 3rd grade but do test children in the 4th grade. There are four levels presented in the NAEP scores: Below Basic, Basic, Proficient, and Advanced. For our purposes today, we will only look at the scores for the students scoring Proficient and Advanced, which is where we want our students to be. Here is how we compare with several of our other southeastern states. The red bars are the top 5 scoring percentages, so we can benchmark ourselves against other states. You can see with the green line that Georgia has not quite reached the national average, but the good news is we are improving. Source: National Center for Education Statistics

NAEP 2009 8th Grade Math At or Above Basic
Georgia 67% United States 71% Now, lets look at another milestone: numeracy by 8th grade. The good news is we are improving with 25 % of our 8th graders scoring at or above proficient. But we can think of this as half full or half empty. Look at the top 5 scoring percentages and you will see Ohio. A recent article mentioned that Ohio is sounding the alarm and are concerned about being able to sustain strong economic development and be competitive internationally. Ohio sees a sense of urgency to improved graduation rates and NAEP scores. So, even though we may be improving and doing better than some of our neighboring states, how are we going to surpass Ohio and some of the other states who are doing better. We are going to have to work harder to leap forward. Source: National Center for Education Statistics

SAT 2009 Scores – All States United Georgia States 1460 1509
Now, let’s look at SAT scores, certainly not the best test for measuring student achievement or good for comparison purposes but one used by many economic developers when talking about student achievement. The SAT test has changed recently, which makes it difficult to track data over time. Let’s look a little closer, especially at the top 5 scoring states (red bar). Only 4 – 9% of their students take the SAT and it’s their top of students, compared to 70% of all students in Georgia taking the SAT and 45% nationally. If we had only our top 10% of students taking the test, we would be knocking the socks off of those other states. But, the real story is we still have work to do. Source: College Board, 2009 College-Bound Seniors, State and National Reports.

SAT 2009 Scores – States with Participation Rate At or Above 25%
United States 1509 Georgia 1460 Now, let’s look at SAT scores, certainly not the best test for measuring student achievement or good for comparison purposes but one used by many economic developers when talking about student achievement. The SAT test has changed recently, which makes it difficult to track data over time. Let’s look a little closer, especially at the top 5 scoring states (red bar). Only 4 – 9% of their students take the SAT and it’s their top of students, compared to 70% of all students in Georgia taking the SAT and 45% nationally. If we had only our top 10% of students taking the test, we would be knocking the socks off of those other states. But, the real story is we still have work to do. Source: College Board, 2009 College-Bound Seniors, State and National Reports.

SAT 2009 Scores – States with Participation Rate At or Above 60%
United States 1509 Georgia 1460 Now, let’s look at SAT scores, certainly not the best test for measuring student achievement or good for comparison purposes but one used by many economic developers when talking about student achievement. The SAT test has changed recently, which makes it difficult to track data over time. Let’s look a little closer, especially at the top 5 scoring states (red bar). Only 4 – 9% of their students take the SAT and it’s their top of students, compared to 70% of all students in Georgia taking the SAT and 45% nationally. If we had only our top 10% of students taking the test, we would be knocking the socks off of those other states. But, the real story is we still have work to do. Source: College Board, 2009 College-Bound Seniors, State and National Reports.

High School Graduation Rates: State-by-State Rankings
United States 74.9% Georgia 65.4% Source: NCES (2010). Public School Graduates and Dropouts: School Year

Georgia High School Graduation Rates
Year High School Graduation Rate Number of High School Non-Grads 2007 72% 28,883 2008 75% 27,248 2009 79% 23,567 2010* 80% 22,498 Total 102,196 This chart shows the high school graduation rate. It is the number of kids who started the 9th grade and finished the 12th grad on time. In the packet, you will see a white sheet that shows the graduation rate for all Georgia school systems. Look to see where yours falls in comparison to the state average. If you look at the roll up of the numbers from 2004 – 2007, we have over 123,000 young adults who are not ready for work or college. What are we going to do with them? In communities, we must think about getting them into adult education and literacy programs. When we talk later about other education milestones, we’ll mention readiness for school. When many of these 123, – 19 year-folks don’t graduate, they often become young parents and are ill-equipped to be the best parents. DTAE is providing good literacy programs to help these young people. You might have seen other completion percentages such as 58% by the Manhattan Institute. Regardless of the number, it is too high and we must do something to address it. The real story is to look at how these percentages are doing over time, such as 5 years. Source: The Governor’s Office of Student Achievement, State Report Cards. *2010 data is preliminary.

Economic Impact of Georgia Non-Graduates

Education Pays EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT & EMPLOYMENT Unemployment Rate
April 2010 Median Wkly Earnings (& approx. annual) 15% 10% 5% 0% 200 600 1000 4.4 Bachelor’s Degree & Higher $1, ($59,280) 8.1 Some college/ Associate Degree $738 ($38,376) 10.5 HS Graduates, No College $624 ($32,448) 14.5 Less than a High School Diploma $448 ($23,296) This comparison of the impact of education on income and unemployment rates, shows less education means higher unemployment rates and lower average earnings. When you look at the income for a person with less than a high school compared with income for a person who completes high school and even some college, it adds up to over ½ million dollars over a life time. What does this mean for a person in terms of ability to own a car or a home? And for your community leaders, what does it mean in terms of a person incurring debt? Then, If out of work, can’t pay their debt. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Earnings & unemployment for full-time workers age 25 & older, not seasonally adjusted. Data given are 1st quarter 2010 averages.

Unemployment Rates by Education Level
What does all this mean in terms of unemployment? This map shows about 6% as our average and you can see which counties are falling above and below this average. A recent Wall Street Journal article indicates that the average unemployment is around 4.9% now. Even at that, the colors on the map aren’t likely to change much If you were to overlay this map with the previous one, we would see a direct correlation between unemployment rates and high school non-completion rates, with the same counties and regions being hit hardest. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2010.

Unemployment Rates by County, Feb. 2010
What does all this mean in terms of unemployment? This map shows about 6% as our average and you can see which counties are falling above and below this average. A recent Wall Street Journal article indicates that the average unemployment is around 4.9% now. Even at that, the colors on the map aren’t likely to change much If you were to overlay this map with the previous one, we would see a direct correlation between unemployment rates and high school non-completion rates, with the same counties and regions being hit hardest. Source: Georgia Department of Labor

State Service Delivery Regions
So, as we begin to look at the impact on regions of the state, look at this map to see where your region is as we will be referring to this. You can also look on page 27 of the Economics of Education publication for a larger version. If you could think about raising your region’s high school completion rate, what would it mean for your community?

Economic Impact of High School
Non-Completion Region 1 $2.2 billion Region 2 $1.2 billion Region 3 $4.2 billion Region 4 $1.1 billion Region 5 Region 6 $1.0 billion Region 7 Region 8 $0.9 billion Region 9 Region 10 $2.0 billion Region 11 Region 12 TOTAL $18 billion* How much could YOUR region benefit from this additional income currently being foregone? Let’s look at the region you are in and see what impact high school non-completion has on your community in terms of dollars and cents. The GA Southern study was updated in April, 2007 to use current dollars to estimate the income foregone in your community by not having your high school completion rate at least at the national average. And this is an annual figure which rolls up to have a significant impact on you economy. Supposing you don’t agree with GA Southern’s measures and you think they overshot their metrics, just half the amount and it is still a significant impact on local economic development efforts. Source: Isley, P. & Hill, J. “Updated Economic Impact of High School Non-Completion in Georgia: 2005 Estimate,” Georgia Southern University. April *According to GSU study, totals may not add due to rounding.

High School Non-Completion
Compounded Impacts of High School Non-Completion INDIVIDUALS THE COMMUNITY Lower Lifetime Earnings Reduced buying power & tax revenues; less economic growth Decreased health status; Higher mortality rates; More criminal activity Higher health care & criminal justice costs Higher teen pregnancy rates; Single motherhood Higher public services costs Less voting; Less volunteering Low rate of community involvement Roll those dollars up and what happens to the individual and to the community. Lower Lifetime Earnings – can mean a difference of ½ million dollars or more for the individual Reduced Buying Power – businesses are concerned about this. Think of what it could also man in reduced tax revenues. School systems use the SPLOST to renovate and build schools Decreased Health Status…-- Raises many health issues Higher Health Care…-80% of folks in prison don’t have a HS diploma; contributes to increased cost Higher Teen Pregnancy Rates…- How many 15 – 19 year olds in your community have their 1st baby or even their 2nd baby? Realizing that a mother is a child’s first teacher, they are not always the best teacher, especially when a young teenage mother. Again, you will see some of those numbers in the KidsCount data we will share Higher Public Service Costs – Less Voting and Volunteering – Less Community Involvement – This impacts the infrastructure of a community Source: Levin, H., et al., (2007). The Costs and Benefits of an Excellent Education for All of America’s Children.

Strengthening the Birth to Work Pipeline

KEY ISSUE #1 Early Life Experiences KEY ISSUE #2 Academic Achievement K-12 KEY ISSUE #3 Transitions to Work or College We are now going to look at 3 big buckets that could fix the pipeline, plug the leaks. Early Life Experiences – help healthy mothers have healthy babies. How do we provide good, enriching experiences? Academic Achievement K-12 – We educate all the kids who get off the bus. Some come more prepared than others. Teaching Quality – Can override all other areas.

Family Income Affects School Readiness
Achievement Gap as Children Enter Kindergarten Poverty/low income has been shown to be a particularly strong indictor of future difficulty in schools for students. The chart illustrates the gap in achievement scores for kindergarteners based on variations in family income. Optimally, we would like to raise the academic ability of all. As family income increases, so does academic ability. If kids are behind in kindergarten, they tend to stay behind. NOTE: Additional comments from the publication, but not related to the study covered in the graph above: At age 4, children who live below the poverty line are on average 18 months below what is normal for their age group; by age 10 that gap is still present. Before entering kindergarten, the average cognitive scores of preschool-age children in the highest socio-economic group are 60% above the average scores of children in the lowest socioeconomic group. NOTE: Reference Dalton story. Dalton Tech, Dalton State, school system – concerned with HS graduate rate in carpet capitol. Looked at root causes. Invested $1million to start pre-K program for Hispanic children so they could start school on same level with their peers. Source: National Center for Education Statistics. (2004). Early Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of

Disparities in Early Vocabulary Growth
Professional Families ,116 words Working Class Families words Welfare Families words Source: Hart, B. and Risley, T. R. (2003). “The Early Catastrophe: The 30 Million Word Gap by Age 3.”

Economic Benefits of Early Education:
Perry Preschool Study Investments in the early years are the most cost effective ways to improve students ultimate success in school and Georgia has made just such an investment with its Bright from the Start pre-K program. And the academic gains appear to continue beyond a student’s early grades. In one of the nation's older, more closely documented programs, Perry Preschool, researchers have followed neighborhood children into adulthood and now are able to compare what happened to participants and non-participants from a working-class, low-income area. The results are striking: The middle-aged adults who had the benefits of the preschool are today 4 times more likely than those without the program to earn a good monthly income. They are almost 3 times more likely to own their own home and twice as likely to have never been on welfare as an adult. At one of the Partnership’s recent meetings, a researcher from Northwestern University, reported that studies continue to support these findings and also found that a 12% increase in work attendance was seen in those folks that had quality early learning experiences. Source: Schweinhart, L.J., et al. (2005). Lifetime effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool study through age 40.

Economic Benefits of Early Education:
Perry Preschool Study In the Perry study, students who attended preschool were 3 times more likely to make better grades and significantly more likely to graduate from high school on time than students without high-quality pre-K and less likely to be in special education. Special education is very expensive; fewer students in special ed saves the schools resources. NOTE: See page 9 of Economics of Education for additional strategies. Source: Schweinhart, L.J., et al. (2005). Lifetime effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool study through age 40.

6th Grade Outcomes Can Predict Failure to Graduate High School
Flag in Sixth Grade Percent with this flag who… Attended ≤ 80% Failed Math Course Failed English Course Suspended Out of School Un-satisfactoryBehavior Graduated on time 13 12 16 24 Did not graduate 83 81 82 80 71 Research in 2007 by Robert Balfanz and colleagues at Johns Hopkins University demonstrates the importance of student academic and behavioral success in the middle school grades. The research found that four predictive indicators reflecting poor attendance, misbehavior, and course failures in sixth grade can be used to identify 60% of the students who will not graduate from high school. The five “flags” that had the greatest predictive power of future high school graduation were: Attend school 80% or less of the time during sixth grade Fail math in sixth grade Fail english in sixth grade Receive an out-of-school suspension in sixth grade; and Receive an unsatisfactory final behavior mark in any subject in sixth grade. Source: Balfanz, R. (2007). Preventing Student Disengagement and Keeping Students on the Graduation Path in Urban Middle-Grades Schools: Early Identification and Effective Intervetions.

Cost of Student Retention in Georgia
61,642 X $8,909 = More than $549 million Georgia students retained in 2009 Average annual cost of education per student Total cost of student retention in 2009 for Georgia Example for Washington County School System: 152 X $8,540 = $1,298,080 Source: Georgia Department of Education; Partnership Calculation

Essential Building Blocks of High Performing States
Higher Standards Rigorous Curriculum Clear Accountability System Statewide Student Information System Leadership Training Why are we not performing as well as states with similar demographics? We did not have all of the essential building blocks in place as long as states like NC, TX, VA. We just started this about 6 years ago; other states have been working at putting all the pieces in place longer. Higher Standards and Rigorous Curriculum – Supt. Cox has been putting these in place; some standards are even international level. We are just now rolling out that strong curriculum. In a recent Education Week Quality Counts report, Georgia was given an A- on curriculum, assessments and standards, ranking us 14th in the nation. Clear Accountability System – Statewide Student Information System – Need this in place so we can track cohorts of kids. With a unique student identifier number, we cam follow students' academic progress as they move from grade to grade; we can identify consistently high-performing schools so that educators and the public can learn from best practices; can evaluate the effect of teacher preparations and training programs on student achievement. Leadership Training – 2nd to teacher quality is leadership quality. Many of our principals and superintendents never learned basic piece of business-driven leadership training before. Through GLISI (Leadership Institute) this is a way to focus on student achievement as their bottom line. Some of that training includes… Data analysis Performance management issues Root cause analysis Looking at metrics

3rd Grade Reading Achievement in Georgia:
Closing the Gaps % of Students Meeting or Exceeding Standards How strong is our curriculum? It’s getting better as we look at evidence of improvement in 3rd grade reading. After putting several of those essential building blocks in place we are seeing improvements. Let’s look at Georgia’s data for its Criterion Referenced Competency Tests (CRCT’s). As we look at the percentage of children not meeting standards, we want to see that number go down but we also want to see the gaps in performance among black, Hispanic and white students close. We are seeing general improvements in the statewide test over the last 3 years. Our numbers were improving, then you can see that in 2006 we hit a bump in 3rd grade reading. This was the year the new test was rolled out in reading. Source: Georgia Department of Education.

8th Grade Math Achievement in Georgia:
Closing the Gaps % of Students Meeting or Exceeding Standards When we look at 8th grade math and the percentage of students not meeting standards, we see progress in closing our achievement gaps but we still have progress to make in the number of students not meeting standards. Part of this goes back to how we train our teachers to teach in areas of math and science. Source: Georgia Department of Education.

High School Graduation Rates in Georgia:
Closing the Gaps As we saw earlier, high school graduation rates continue to improve generally, as well as among disaggregated groups. We still have the challenge of continuing to raise the graduation rate higher while also closing the gaps between the demographic groups. Source: Georgia Department of Education.

Are They College Ready? Educational Attainment of Remedial Coursetakers In fall 2008, 25% of first-time freshmen in the University System of Georgia were required to take remedial (learning support) courses. Source: Nat’l Center for Education Statistics. “The Condition of Education: Student Effort & Educational Progress.” 2004

Participation & Performance in AP Courses
Source: College Board, “The 6th Annual A.P. Report to the Nation: Georgia Supplement,” 2010.

The Demands of America’s New Economy
12 of the 20 fastest growing occupations require an associate degree or higher. The number of jobs for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher will increase from 38 million in 2006 to 43 million by 2016 – a growth rate of nearly 15 percent. Source: U.S. Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Middle-Skills Gap Between Jobs & Workers
Persistent shortages of middle-skill workers inhibit industry growth and U.S. competitiveness Source: National Skills Coalition, “The Issues.”

What Can We Do? We’ll start with a look at current data.

Look at the Data for your Community
KIDS COUNT Data Georgia Family Connection Partnership School and System Comparisons Georgia School Council Institute Now that we know were we stand in Georgia and in many of your communities and we know what we need to be doing, what are some action steps we can take immediately? Analyze state and local data – Drill down and get your own data through DOE website, KidsCount Data; use the GSCI website for comparison of similar schools or school systems. Serve as a Community Coach – Governor put graduation coaches in place in every high school. GA Power, along w/GPEE, CIS, Metro Chamber cooperated in getting community coaches to work with each of grad coaches. Relate story – Houston County culinary arts student; middle school coaches are next. Volunteer – Jr. Achievement, FERST Program Bus Trip – Refer to Yellow sheet (highlight best practices in science, technology, and math this year) Teacher Quality Project - Goldenrod sheet – Partnership between GA Chamber, local chambers and school system, and GPEE Local Econ of Ed Session – We will help (page 26 of publication). This can lead to Community Strategic Planning. Already being done in Elbert and Troup Counties and seeing results. NOTE: Refer to page 26 of publication.

2009 CRCT Comparisons: 3rd Grade Reading Washington County Schools
Now that we know were we stand in Georgia and in many of your communities and we know what we need to be doing, what are some action steps we can take immediately? Analyze state and local data – Drill down and get your own data through DOE website, KidsCount Data; use the GSCI website for comparison of similar schools or school systems. Serve as a Community Coach – Governor put graduation coaches in place in every high school. GA Power, along w/GPEE, CIS, Metro Chamber cooperated in getting community coaches to work with each of grad coaches. Relate story – Houston County culinary arts student; middle school coaches are next. Volunteer – Jr. Achievement, FERST Program Bus Trip – Refer to Yellow sheet (highlight best practices in science, technology, and math this year) Teacher Quality Project - Goldenrod sheet – Partnership between GA Chamber, local chambers and school system, and GPEE Local Econ of Ed Session – We will help (page 26 of publication). This can lead to Community Strategic Planning. Already being done in Elbert and Troup Counties and seeing results. NOTE: Refer to page 26 of publication. Source: Georgia School Council Institute

2009 CRCT Comparisons: 8th Grade Math Washington County Schools

2009 SAT Comparisons: Average Total Score Washington County Schools

Improving the Pipeline: RESULT: 4 healthier babies!
Low Birth Weight in 2008 Washington County Georgia Total # of births 291 146,464 # of low weight births 39 14,014 low birth weight rate 13.4% 9.6% 35 12.0% If your efforts are not aligned, whether in business or schools, it’s going to be harder to stay focused and reach your goal. How many of your schools have random acts that compete against each other? If we are all aimed in the same direction with focus on the same goal, it can be reached. In business, that goal is profits; in education, that goal is student achievement. GOAL: Reduce the number of low birth weight babies by 10 percent in Washington County. RESULT: 4 healthier babies! Source: Georgia Department of Community Health 43

Improving the Pipeline: High School Graduation in 2010
Washington County Georgia Total # of Graduates 219 88,003 Graduation Rate 75.8% 78.9% 241 83.4% If your efforts are not aligned, whether in business or schools, it’s going to be harder to stay focused and reach your goal. How many of your schools have random acts that compete against each other? If we are all aimed in the same direction with focus on the same goal, it can be reached. In business, that goal is profits; in education, that goal is student achievement. GOAL: Improve the number of graduates by 10 percent in Washington County. RESULT: 22 more high school graduates! Source: Georgia Department of Education 44

Aligning Educational Strategies
Random Acts of Improvement GOALS Aligned Acts of Improvement If your efforts are not aligned, whether in business or schools, it’s going to be harder to stay focused and reach your goal. How many of your schools have random acts that compete against each other? If we are all aimed in the same direction with focus on the same goal, it can be reached. In business, that goal is profits; in education, that goal is student achievement. GOALS

Insulating the Birth to Work Pipeline
ESSENTIAL COMMUNITY SERVICES Transportation Health Housing Financial Insulating the Birth to Work Pipeline K – 12 System LEARNING & SOCIAL SUPPORTS Childcare Providers Afterschool Programs Academic Supports Job Training Civic Opportunities Early Childhood Post Secondary Work & Career We’ve referenced several times the milestones that lead to work-ready and college-ready students. As communities are looking at the Governor’s Work-ready Initiative, they most begin looking at the data and how their community measures up at each level. One of the key points to become a Certified Work Ready Community is to improve high school graduation rates. Research says we can’t wait until the end of the pipeline, we must address each of these milestones along the way. The AEAH (Alliance of Education Agency Heads) is looking at the entire education pipeline and how each agency can be much more efficient with its resources. NOTE: See page 24 of publication. Source: The Forum for Youth Investment

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