1. Petroleum Economics Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences University of South Carolina January 2002 Source: EIA

2. World Oil Demand Declines: Oil embargo, 1973 Revolution in Iran, 1979 Economic crisis in Asia and FSU, 1997-98 Oil Consumption

3. World Oil Demand Increments in Oil Consumption by Region Largest increase: Asia

4. World Oil Demand Oil Consumption per Capita by Region Declines: Industrialized countries: oil price crises EE/FSU: collapse of communism Developing countries: no decline

5. World Oil Demand Oil Intensity by Region Continuous decline

6. World Oil Demand Oil Consumption by Sector Industrialized countries: Transportation Developing countries: Other uses Main area of growth:

7. World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in the Developing World China: 6.1 MBD South Korea: 1.2 MBD India: 3.9 MBD Middle East: 5.3 MBD Africa: 2.9 MBD Central and South America: 4.7 MBD Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020:

8. World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in the Industrialized World Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020: USA: 6.3 MBD Mexico: 2.2 MBD Canada: 0.3 MBD Western Europe: 1.5 MBD Japan: 0.35 MBD

9. World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in EE/FSU Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020: FSU: 4.1 MBD Eastern Europe: 0.2 MBD

10. World Oil Supply

13. More than 2/3 of increase in oil demand will be supplied by OPEC World Oil Production by Region

14. World Oil Supply Projected growth rate: 3.4% per year OPEC Oil Production

15. World Oil Supply OPEC and Non-OPEC production

16. World Oil Supply Non-OPEC production by Region, 2020

17. World Oil Supply Top World Oil Producers, 2000 CountryProduction Estimates (million bbl/d) 1)Saudi Arabia9.12 2)United States9.08 (5.83 of which was crude oil) 3)Russia6.71 4)Iran3.81 5)Mexico3.48 6)Norway3.32 7)China3.25 8)Venezuela3.14 9)United Kingdom2.75 10)Canada2.74 11)Iraq2.59 12)United Arab Emirates2.51 13)Kuwait2.25 14)Nigeria2.15 15)Indonesia1.56 16)Brazil1.54 17)Libya1.47 18)Algeria1.43 Red: OPEC member Blue: Non-OPEC member

18. World Oil Supply Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2000 CountryNet Exports (million bbl/d) 1)Saudi Arabia 7.84 2)Russia 4.31 3)Norway 3.11 4)Venezuela 2.66 5)Iran 2.59 6)United Arab Emirates 2.18 7)Iraq 2.09 8)Kuwait 2.05 9)Nigeria 1.86 10)Mexico 1.44 11)Libya 1.29 12)Algeria 1.22 13)United Kingdom 1.06 Red: OPEC member Blue: Non-OPEC member

19. World Oil Supply 814 B bbl Total: 1030 B bbl

20. World Oil Trade