1. 1 Lecture 19: Hypothesis Tests Devore, Ch. 8.1

2. Topics I.Statistical Hypotheses (pl!) –Null and Alternative Hypotheses –Testing statistics and rejection regions II.Errors in Hypothesis Testing –Type I and II errors

3. I. A Statistical Hypothesis.. Is a claim about the value of a single population characteristic, or relationship between several population characteristics. –Examples of Claims: Mean diameter of the engine cylinder is 81 mm. Mean of batch 1 is no different than the mean of batch 2. Variance of batch 1 is different than variance of batch 2. % Defective of batch 1 is less than 5%. In hypothesis testing, we take a sample of data and test a claim.

4. Null and Alternative Hypotheses To evaluate a claim, you identify a null and alternative hypothesis. Null Hypothesis, Ho –Claim that is initially assumed to be true. Alternative Hypothesis, Ha –Assertion that is contradictory to Ho. Null Hypothesis is rejected if sample evidence suggests that it is false. If not false, we fail to Reject Ho. So, possible outcomes of test are: –Reject Ho Or Fail to Reject Ho –NOTE: fail to reject Ho is different from saying that we have proven Ho is true.

5. “Favored Claim” In setting up a test, we typically have a favored claim which is the Ho. –In practice, we typically set Ho as the condition with the “=“ sign, and Ha as the condition with “ ”, or “≠” Familiar analogy: innocent until proven guilty. Practical examples: –Suppose you want to determine if a worker performs his job ok. Ho: worker is meeting the minimum job requirements. Ha: worker is not meeting the minimum job requirements. –Suppose you want to know whether to rework a machine- tool. Ho: machine produces a part feature average on target. Ha: machine does not produce a feature average on target.

6. Sample Null Hypotheses Identify a null and alternative hypothesis for each of the prior examples. –Mean diameter of the engine cylinder is 81 mm. –Mean of batch 1 is not different than mean of batch 2. –Variance of batch 1 is different than the variance of batch 2. –% Defective of batch 1 is less than 5%.

7. A Test of Hypotheses A test of hypotheses is a method for using sample data to decide whether the null hypothesis should be rejected.

8. Statistical Hypothesis Tests Hypothesis tests often involve one of the following: –Comparison of Means Single mean to a standard value Two sample means More than two sample means –Comparison of Variances Single variance to a standard value Two sample variances More than two sample variances. –Comparison of Proportions Single proportion to a standard value Two proportions Of course, they may be applied to any test statistic: e.g., correlation, median, if distribution is normal, etc.

9. Test Procedures To perform a hypothesis test, you need: –Null and Alternative Hypothesis –An assumed data pattern / distribution (e.g., normal, iid) –Test Statistic - function of the sample data on which the decision is based. –Rejection region - set of test statistic values for which the Ho is rejected. (based on error threshold)

10. Example: Cylinder Bore Suppose you take a sample of 25 cylinders and consider a mean to be off target if bore diameter < 80.9. –If X ~ N(  = 81,  x  = 0.30 2 )  x-bar = ? Construct a 95% two-sided CI on the true mean, ,? With 95% confidence, would you conclude that a sample mean of 80.9 is different than a mean = 81?

11. II. Errors in Hypothesis Testing Rejection region of a hypothesis test is based on an acceptance of error when drawing a conclusion. When drawing a conclusion based on a test, four results are possible (hint: think of possible outcomes in a jury trial). TRUTHWhat the Jury Says Innocent / Guilty

12. Outcomes of a Decision Conclude Or Say Not Different Truth Not Different Different 

13. Definitions of Error Types Type I error [also known as alpha (  ) error] - FORMAL: Reject Ho when Ho is true PRACTICAL: Conclude a difference exists when no difference exists. Type II error [also known as beta (  ) error] - FORMAL: Fail to Reject Ho when Ho is false PRACTICAL: Conclude no difference exists when a difference exists. Why might a decision from a statistical test be wrong? Can we eliminate both types of errors?

14. Rejection Region: Suppose an experiment and a sample size are fixed, and a test statistic is chosen. Decreasing the size of the rejection region to obtain a smaller value of results in a larger value of, for any particular parameter value consistent with H a.

15. Significance Level Specify the largest value of that can be tolerated and find a rejection region having that value of. This makes as small as possible subject to the bound on. The resulting value of is referred to as the significance level.

16. Level Test A test corresponding to the significance level is called a level test. A test with significance level is one for which the type I error probability is controlled at the specified level.

17. P(type I error) ~  If we assume that Ho is true, we may calculate the probability of a wrong conclusion. Requirements: need an assumed distribution and estimates of distribution parameters (e.g., expected mean, variance). We do this by finding the probability of some value, X, relative to its underlying distribution (or pdf/cdf). –Value for X given X ~ Bin (15, 0.2) –Value for X given X ~ Normal (81, 0.25 2 )

18. P(type I error) - Example Suppose 1% of books for a particular textbook fail a binding test. You wish to test the hypothesis that p=0.01 when X ~ Bin(200, 0.01). –Test Statistic: X is the number of test failures. –Rejection Region: Conclude the failure rate has increased (reject Ho) if you draw a sample with X >= 5. Accept Ho X<=4 –Identify a Ho and Ha for this situation. –If Ho is true, what is the probability that you will observe 5 or more failures? [Hint: 1 - Pr(X <= 4)] –When Ho is true, what % of the time will you make a wrong conclusion? –If you wanted to be 95% confident in your decision, would you conclude the Ho is true? What is alpha in this example?

19. P(type II error) ~  P(type II error) ~ prob conclude no difference exists, when a difference exists. In other words, failure to detect some difference, . –Example: suppose  shifts some , so  new =  +  –A type II error would be a failure to detect  shift (i.e., conclude no difference exists even though a shift has occurred) Unlike  the  error does not exist for a unique value of test parameter (rejection limit). Rather, it varies based on the value for the amount of difference, , you are trying to detect given some sample size. –Ho: p = 0.01 (single value); Ha: p > 0.01 (many values exist)

20. Binding test example, Find  If the fraction defective, p, equal to 0.01; n = 200. –Rejection Region: X >= 5 What is the probability that you will fail to detect a shift in p from 0.01 to 0.015 (n=200)? What is the probability that you will fail to detect a shift in p from 0.01 to 0.05 (n=200)?

21. Engine Cylinder:  &  Errors Suppose you take a sample of 25 cylinders –If X ~ N(  = 81,  x = 0.30 2 )  x-bar = ? –Suppose you reject batch if sample mean <= 80.9. What is Pr(type I error)? –P(Ho is rejected when Ho is true)? What is Pr(type II error) if true mean shifts to 80.9 mm? What is Pr(type II error) if true mean shifts to 80.75 mm?

22.  /  and Rejection Regions Suppose you wish to reduce type I errors by increasing the rejection region, what happens to  error if you maintain the same test and same sample size, n. In our prior example, what is Pr(type I error) if rejection region is expanded to 80.75? What happens to Pr(type II error) if rejection region is expanded to 80.75 and you try to detect a shift from 81 - 80.75? Identify general statement about ,  and rejection regions given same experiment and fixed n.

23.  /  and Sample Size Suppose you wish to increase the sample size from 25 to 50. If If X ~ N(  = 81,  x = 0.30 2 ) What happens to Pr(type I error) if n increases to 50? What happens to Pr(type II error) if n increases to 50 and you try to detect a new mean = 80.75? Comment about ,  and n.