1. Danielle Verna Alaska Pacific University Pacific Ballast Water Group - April 16, 2014 Influences of policy and vessel behavior on the risk of ballast-borne marine species invasions in coastal Alaska

2. Vector-based Invasion Risk Ruiz & Carlton 2003 Dose-Response Relationship Wonham et al. 2013 The expected number of species that will establish is the sum of the probability of each species establishing Species Assemblages Holzer 2013

3. Application for Alaska Ruiz et al. 2011  Last analysis of vessel arrival & ballast discharge data in AK was for 2003 – 2004 (McGee et al. 2006)  Hotspots of invasive species along the US west coast  High potential for coastwise transfer of species (secondary spread)

4. US BWM Policy 2004: USCG  Mandatory BWM reporting  Mandatory BWM Exemptions: Crude oil tankers involved in coastwise trade Traveling within one Captain of the Port Zone DOD & USCG vessels 2008: EPA - 2008: EPA - Vessel General Permit  Regulated Pacific nearshore voyages  Mandatory management & record keeping for crude oil tankers involved in coastwise trade

5. Ballast in AK, 2005 - 2012  ~72% of ballast discharge was sourced on the US west coast or British Columbia  Tankers discharged ~88% of all ballast  Only 33% of reported ballast was managed (BWE) 3,773 discharging arrivals 28,213 ballast tanks 7.5 x10 7 MT of ballast 67 ports/bays 910 offshore lat/long

6. Ecoregions of Alaska Spalding et al. 2007 92% 4% 2% Ballast in AK, 2005 - 2012

7. Ballast Discharge Hotspots Valdez Red Dog Southeast Dutch Harbor Afognak Seward Nikiski Ballast Discharge Volume (MT)

8. Reported ballast discharge in AK, 2005 - 2012

9. Supply & Demand? EPA VGP Reported ballast discharge in AK, 2005 - 2012 Risk Assessment

10. Reporting increase, 2008 - 2009 Anchorage Kodiak  99% of the increase was to the Gulf of Alaska region  Coastwise ballast: 1095% increase  Overseas ballast: 17% increase Valdez: 1170% increase in reported ballast discharge volume 47 to 258 reporting tankers

11. Valdez Seward Nikiski Afognak Dutch Harbor Red Dog Vessel Type & Exports

12. Red Dog Sources Managed Unmanaged

13. Dutch Harbor Sources Managed Unmanaged

14. Valdez Sources Managed Unmanaged

15. Model risk as a function of environmental similarity, ballast water age, ballast water volume & species richness  Between source region and top 15 ports by volume Risk Assessment 2009 - 2012  High-latitude risk assessments: Baltic Sea (Leppäkoski & Gollasch 2006) Canada (Chan et al. 2013) Norway (Ware et al. 2013)

16.  Environmental Similarity ‣ (positively correlated with risk) 1) Low  non-adjacent ecoregion 2) Medium  adjacent ecoregion 3) High  same ecoregion A weighted average was applied to the proximity ranking based on the volume of ballast per source ecoregion A weighted average was applied to the proximity ranking based on the volume of ballast per source ecoregion Risk Framework Spalding et al. 2007

17.   Ballast water age   (negatively correlated with risk) Risk Framework Number of days between source and discharge date

18.   Ballast water volume   (positively correlated with risk) Serves as a proxy for propagule pressure 0.1 correction factor applied to managed ballast to represent 90% efficacy rate of BWE (Ruiz & Reid 2007) Risk Framework

19.  Species Richness  (positively correlated with risk) Number of ballast-borne marine invasive species per source ecoregion (Molnar et al. 2008) Number of ballast-borne marine invasive species per source ecoregion (Molnar et al. 2008) Risk Framework

20. Environmental Similarity Age (days) Corrected mean volume of ballast water discharge: ecoregions & ports (log 10 MT) Species Abundance (1) Low < 1> 10< 2.6< 110 (2) Medium 1 – 26 – 102.6 – 5.1110 – 219 (3) High > 2< 6> 5.1> 219 Risk Scale

25.  Valdez, Nikiski, Drift River Terminal & Dutch Harbor may be hotspots for invasion   Risk to all ports was greatest from environmental similarity and ballast water volume  Past policy exemptions hindered monitoring and elevated risk Results & Implications

26.  Analysis of impacts from other management exemptions (i.e. Captain of the Port Zones)  Finer-scale risk analysis  Focused management and survey efforts at source and discharge ports based on relative risk  Ballast water treatment systems  AK regulations? Further Study

27. Increased Arctic vessel traffic Northwest Passage & Northern Sea Route Bering Strait bottleneck Looking Ahead…

28. Port development Offshore oil & gas growth

29. Acknowledgements

30. PortEnvironmental Similarity Risk 2009201020112012All Afognak21112 Drift River Terminal32333 Dutch Harbor22222 Hawk Inlet11122 Hydaburg11212 Ketchikan33333 Kodiak32212 Klawock11111 Nikiski22222 Prince William Sound12102 Red Dog22222 Seward32222 Skagway12122 Tolstoi Bay00111 Valdez22222 Risk

31. PortVolume Risk 2009201020112012All Afognak22222 Drift River Terminal22333 Dutch Harbor22222 Hawk Inlet22222 Hydaburg22222 Ketchikan22222 Kodiak12122 Klawock11122 Nikiski33323 Prince William Sound32203 Red Dog22223 Seward22223 Skagway12122 Tolstoi Bay00122 Valdez33333 Risk

32. PortAge Risk 2009201020112012All Afognak11111 Drift River Terminal22333 Dutch Harbor11111 Hawk Inlet11111 Hydaburg11111 Ketchikan11111 Kodiak31111 Klawock11111 Nikiski12211 Prince William Sound22202 Red Dog11111 Seward11111 Skagway11111 Tolstoi Bay00111 Valdez22222 Risk

33. PortSpecies Richness Risk 2009201020112012All Afognak11111 Drift River Terminal12222 Dutch Harbor22223 Hawk Inlet12112 Hydaburg11111 Ketchikan11111 Kodiak11111 Klawock11111 Nikiski11122 Prince William Sound11102 Red Dog11111 Seward11111 Skagway11111 Tolstoi Bay00111 Valdez22222 Risk