1. APEC EGCFE Workshop March 21-23, 2005 The Grand Hotel, Chinese Taipei Cooperation & Competition in Asia-Pacific LNG Market Cooperation & Competition in Asia-Pacific LNG Market Dr. Boyoung KIM KOGAS

2. 2  Yesterday  Nowadays  Tomorrow in Asia-Pacific LNG Market CONTENTS

3. 3 76.65 10.93 38.31 10.05 22.74 5.36 48.3 12.36 20.07 30.59 8.2 3.7 Source : bp World NG consumption: 2.08b ton International Trade 510m ton (25 % of total consumption) Trade by Pipeline NG : 370m ton Trade by LNG : 140m ton - Japan : 60.0m ton (43%) - Korea : 19.0m ton (14%) in 2003 World Natural Gas Trade

4. 4 World LNG Trades

5. 5 1 st rush hour 2 nd rush hour Source : Clarkson Research Studies When the 3 rd Rush hour of LNG consumption will be ? Coming-up the New Era in LNG Market when? 1,000 ㎥ ships

6. 6 The Restriction of Expanding LNG Market 40.0 46.0 MJ/nm 3 43.0 Oman (45.4) Abu Dhabi (44.6) Qatar (44.3) Malaysia (44.7) Australia (44.4) Indonesia (43.9) Algeria (41.8) Trinidad & T (40.8) Alaska (40.2) Middle-East Asia South-East Asia LNG Quality High Calorie Low Calorie Africa & America Nigeria (43.9)

7. 7 20002005 E2010 E2015 E Japan53.458.367.875.6 Korea15.025.238.148.4 Taiwan4.35.99.013.5 India-2.010.516.0 China--7.113.0 Asia (total) 72.7(71.4%)95.6(63.7%)132.5(48.9%)166.5(44.7%) France9.08.811.814.0 Spain6.915.518.835.2 U.K-2.619.927.2 Europe (total) 23.9(23.5%)37.9(25.3%)72.7(26.9%)103.0(27.7%) US East Coast4.915.045.070.0 US West Coast--5.010.0 Mexico--11.315.8 America (total) 5.1(5.0%)16.5(11.0%)65.5(24.2%)103.0(27.7%) TOTAL101.8(100%)150.0(100%)270.6(100%)372.5(100%) World LNG Demand : Forecasting Unit : mtpa Source : LNG Global 2004, Deutsch Bank

8. 8 2000yr 2010yr 23.9 72.7 132.5 5.1 65.5 Unit : mtpa Europe Asia America World LNG Demand : Forecasting (cont.)

9. 9 - Consumers : Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei  U.S.A, EU (Spain, France, Italy, U.K) - Producers : Indonesia, Malaysia  Qatar, Algeria, Australia, Russia (The Far East) Perspectives of the great Shifting in LNG market

10. 10 Tsunami in Asia-Pacific LNG market

11. 11 LNG Demand 1990199520002004E2005E2006E2007E2010E2015E 04-07 CAGR USA1.70.44.912.715.018.727.750.080.030% JAPAN32.443.553.457.758.360.262.167.875.62% Chinese Taipei0.72.54.35.96.46.97.49.013.58% KOREA2.17.115.020.225.227.830.438.148.415% Source : LNG Global 2004, Deutsch Bank North America ; R/P=9.7 LNG Demand : US, Japan, Chinese Taipei and Korea

12. 12 US ; The Master plan of LNG Terminals The seismic center of Tsunami in Asia-Pacific LNG Market

13. 13 Source : The future relationship between LNG pricing in the Asia-Pacific and the Atlantic-Mediterranean, PFC Energy Average $5.28/mmBTu Average $6.00/mmBTu The price gap ; US East Coast vs. US West Coast

14. 14 Source : Poten & partners, LNG in World Markets Volumes of spot LNG and NYMEX gas price

15. 15 The price gap ; Henry Hub vs. LNG into Japan Source : The future relationship between LNG pricing In the Asia-Pacific and the Atlantic-Mediterranean, PFC Energy $9.13 $7.42

16. 16 Source : Han Wonhee, Quarterly Review of Gas Economics & Management (KOGAS) “Market share of LNG Spot Trade” Trend : The Market share of LNG spot trade

17. 17 4.6mtpa 0 mtpa 17.8mtpa 53.9 mtpa 50mtpa 7.1 mtpa 38.1mtpa 67.8 mtpa China’s Total consumption of NG will be 85mtpa in 2010 USA’s Total Consumption of NG will be 550mtpa in 2010 LNG consumption in 2002 LNG consumption in 2010 0 mtpa 11.3mtpa The Future of Asia-Pacific LNG market Tsunami 5.3 mtpa 9.0 mtpa Winter Season

18. 18 Relationship among Asia-Pacific Economies Cooperation & Competition

19. 19 Tel : +82-31-710-0840 e-mail : kimby@kogas.or.kr Thank You