1. NR 422- Habitat Suitability Models Jim Graham Spring 2009

2. Habitat Suitability Predict the potential distribution of a species based on finding suitable habitat Also known as: –Niche modeling –Predicting distributions

3. Terminology Realized Niche – current distribution –Established species –Late succession (minimal disturbance) Potential Niche – future distribution? –Invasive species –Theatened and endangered species

4. Polar Bear

5. Tamarisk

6. Red Squirrel

7. Arctic Tern

8. Blue Whale

9. Approaches Mechanistic/Experimental –Based on understanding of a species requirements and experiments –Can miss the complexity of environmental conditions and genetic plasticity Statistical –Based on the existing distribution of a species –Can miss the “realized niche” Observational / Anecdotal –Hard to validate

10. Basic Idea Basic idea is to find a correlation between a species and a variable we can measure –Temperature –Precipitation –Surface type: Water, Rock, Soil Type –Distance to human activity –Other species!

11. Process Occurrence Data Parameters and Equations Results Statistical Model Distribution Map Environmental Layers Processing Model Validation Experiments And Observations

12. Correlations Correlations between environmental variables and species requirements

13. Tamarix – Invasive Species

14. Tamarix and Precipitation

15. Tamarix and Temperature

16. Box Model Temperature (degrees C) Precipitation (cm/year) 50 30 5.6

17. Tamarix Potential Habitat

18. Vegetation Layers Minimum temperatures at certain times of the year Amount of sun Precipitation Soil type Elevation Slope Aspect www.geography.hunter.cuny.edu

19. Herbivore Layers Vegetation layers Proximity to cover Distance to water www.ministryofpropaganda.co.ukmedia-2.web.britannica.com

20. Carnivore Layers Herbivore layers Proximity to cover Distance to water www.juneauempire.com

21. Proxy Layers Remotely sensed: –MODIS –LandSat –Aerial Human disturbance DEMs: Elevation, slope, aspect

22. White Tailed Deer Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) = Forage * Cover Log(Deer Density) = a + b (HSI) Roseberry, J. L., Woolf, A. 1998. Habitat-Population Density Relationships for White-Tailed Deer in Illinois, Wildlife Society Bulletin, Vol. 26, No. 2 (Summer, 1998), pp. 252-258

23. Black Bears in Rocky Baldwin, R.A., L. C. Bender. 2007. Den-Site Characteristics of Black Bears in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(8):1717–1724

24. Habitat Suitability Index HIS = –0 for least suitable –1 for most suitable HIS = V1 * V2 * V3 –Where each VX is a raster scaled from 0 to 1 –0 = unsuitable factor –1 = suitable factor –In between values for intermediate suitability

25. Categories Assign each category a value from 0 to 1 based on how suitable it is.

26. Ranges Create mask rasters for area below and above (0 for unsuitable, 1 for suitable) 1.0 0.0 Mask (0.0) 1.0

27. Gradients 1.0 0.0 Mask1.0Gradient

28. Envelopes 1.0 0.0 Mask 1.0Gradient

29. Statistical Approaches Linear Regression (continuous variables) Logistic Regression (presence data) Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production : GARP Classification and Regression Trees: CART MaxEnt (presence)

36. Integrating Climate Change Japanese Honeysuckle

37. Where to go from here Spatial modeling –Robin’s class OpenModeler