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Published byHorace Franklin Modified over 9 years ago
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Global warming and Sea Level Rise: Best estimates by 2100 John King
Professor of Oceanography
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Global Warming: What is it? • The increase in the measured temperature
of the earth’s oceans and near-surface air.
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Measured temperature increases since 1860
Global annually averaged surface temperatures, based on NASA GISS surface temperature analysis
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Global Warming: What’s causing it?
• Human activities add CO2 and other gases to the atmosphere. • The increase of these gases causes “The Greenhouse Effect.”
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The Greenhouse Effect Some of the energy is reflected back into space.
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap some of the heat. More gases = more heat. Sun’s energy passes through the atmosphere, warming the earth.
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Indicators of human influence on the atmosphere
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Changes in Temperature, Sea Level and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Global Warming: Why does it matter?
Global warming causes climate changes that will affect: natural ecosystems availability of food and water global economies frequency of extreme weather events human health and lifestyle
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Changes in Precipitation
Increased CO2 emissions = climate change Rising Temperatures Changes in Precipitation Rising Sea Level Increasing CO2
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Global effects of climate change and sea level rise
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Effects of Global Warming:
Rising temperatures
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Rhode Island climate “migration”
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists
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Rising Temperatures Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists
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Global and Continental Temperature Change
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Changes in annual average temperature in the Northeast
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Effects of Global Warming:
Rising sea level
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Four contributions to sea level rise
Thermal expansion of seawater Melting of glaciers and ice caps Ice sheet surface mass balance snowfall - melting Ice sheet surface dynamical imbalance increased flow rate
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Projected globally averaged surface warming &
sea level rise at the end of the 21st century Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Sea Level Rise: Observed vs. Projected
Interval Model Prediction Observed mm/year mm/year
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Sea Level Rise: Observed = Projected
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2007 - IPCC sea level rise estimate
Thermal expansion of seawater cm Glaciers and ice caps cm Mass balance cm Increased flow cm Total: 40 cm Range of Estimates: cm
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> 3 13 - 20 1.6 - 4.6 - - - 2.6 - 6.6 Sea Level Rise: New Estimates
Reference By 2100 (feet) Total Rise Overpeck, et al., 2006 > 3 Rahmsorf, 2007 - - - Pfeffer, et al., 2008
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Additions to global rise predictions
Increased sea level rise estimates for New England Reference Additions to global rise predictions Yin, et al., 2009 + 8 inches Hu, inches Total global + regional feet
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Greenhouse Gases in Ice Cores
Present day From Brook, E. J., Science , 25 vol no. 5752, pp
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What does 3 feet of sea level rise look like?
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Effects of Global Warming:
Rising sea level in Rhode Island
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Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise:
Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI Flooded areas shown with light blue shading
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Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise detail:
Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI Flooded areas shown with light blue shading
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Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise detail:
Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI Flooded areas shown with light blue shading
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Planning Needs for Rhode Island
Seamless digital terrain model LIDAR survey of coastline High-resolution bathymetry of coastal waters Inundation model Storm surge with wave regime superimposed Better understanding of coastal erosion style and rate Expanded Rhode Island sea level and coastal erosion monitoring program
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Possible explanation for why human-induced
global warming is still “controversial”
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