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The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts,

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Presentation on theme: "The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts,"— Presentation transcript:

1 The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts, Tom Saxen and Huaqing Cai

2 Ft. Worth Auto-Nowcaster Demonstration 2 Year Demonstration 2 Year Demonstration Transfer Auto-Nowcaster capabilities to NWS for gridded aviation forecasts. Transfer Auto-Nowcaster capabilities to NWS for gridded aviation forecasts. Demonstrate improved forecast skill incorporating human forecast input. Demonstrate improved forecast skill incorporating human forecast input.

3 Auto-Nowcaster Role Forecaster USER DATA ANC

4 Demonstration Components NWS CWSU DATA ANC

5 NCAR Auto-Nowcaster Routine (5mins) short-term (0-1hour) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation, growth and decay. Routine (5mins) short-term (0-1hour) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation, growth and decay. Uses fuzzy logic to combine observations, NWP and forecaster input to generate nowcasts. Uses fuzzy logic to combine observations, NWP and forecaster input to generate nowcasts. Extrapolation Initiation Forecasts

6 Environmental conditions (RUC) Environmental conditions (RUC) Frontal likelihood Frontal likelihood Layered stability Layered stability CAPE (max between 900 and 700 mb) CAPE (max between 900 and 700 mb) CIN (mean value between 975 and 900 mb) CIN (mean value between 975 and 900 mb) Mean 875 to 725 mb Relative Humidity Mean 875 to 725 mb Relative Humidity Theta-e gradient Theta-e gradient Boundary-layer Boundary-layer Convergence Convergence LI (based on METARS) LI (based on METARS) Vertical velocity along boundary (maxW) Vertical velocity along boundary (maxW) Boundary-relative steering flow Boundary-relative steering flow New storm development along boundary New storm development along boundary Clouds Clouds Clear or Cumulus Clear or Cumulus Vertical develop as observed by drop in IR temps Vertical develop as observed by drop in IR temps Other fields Other fields 3hr precip accum 3hr precip accum Blue Regions - Little chance of storm development Green Regions - Moderate likelihood Red Regions - Areas of forecast initiation Predictor Fields used for Combined Likelihood of Initiation

7 Data Sets Analysis Algorithms Predictor Fields Forecaster Input Fuzzy Logic Algorithm - Membership functions - weights - Combined likelihood field Final Prediction Flow Chart for the Auto-Nowcaster System Boundaries

8 Data Sets Analysis Algorithms Predictor Fields Forecaster Input Fuzzy Logic Algorithm - Membership functions - weights - Combined likelihood field Final Prediction Flow Chart for the Auto-Nowcaster System Boundaries Regime Selection Polygons Nudging &

9 Initiation Likelihood with No Polygon Weight

10 Initiation Likelihood with Polygon Weight

11 Initiation Likelihood Nudging

12 Dryline Initiation Case Forecast: 2030 UTC Radar: 2030 UTC Forecast: 2030 UTC Radar: 2130 UTC April 21, 2005

13 Forecast: 2036 UTC Radar: 2036 UTC Forecast: 2036 UTC Radar: 2136 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

14 Forecast: 2042 UTC Radar: 2042 UTC Forecast: 2042 UTC Radar: 2142 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

15 Forecast: 2048 UTC Radar: 2048 UTC Forecast: 2048 UTC Radar: 2148 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

16 Forecast: 2100 UTC Radar: 2100 UTC Forecast: 2100 UTC Radar: 2200 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

17 Forecast: 2118 UTC Radar: 2118 UTC Forecast: 2118 UTC Radar: 2218 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

18 Forecast: 2142 UTC Radar: 2142 UTC Forecast: 2142 UTC Radar: 2242 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

19 Forecast: 2206 UTC Radar: 2206 UTC Forecast: 2206 UTC Radar: 2306 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

20 Forecast: 2224 UTC Radar: 2224 UTC Forecast: 2224 UTC Radar: 2324 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

21 Forecast: 2236 UTC Radar: 2236 UTC Forecast: 2236 UTC Radar: 2336 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

22 Forecast: 2248 UTC Radar: 2248 UTC Forecast: 2248 UTC Radar: 2348 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

23 Forecast: 2300 UTC Radar: 2300 UTC Forecast: 2300 UTC Radar: 0000 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

24 Forecast: 2312 UTC Radar: 2312 UTC Forecast: 2312 UTC Radar: 0012 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

25 Improvements and Continuing Work User interface transfer to NWS AWIPS system User interface transfer to NWS AWIPS system New regime for elevated convection New regime for elevated convection Fine tuning and evaluation of existing regimes Fine tuning and evaluation of existing regimes Quantitative statistics on overall human impact on forecasts Quantitative statistics on overall human impact on forecasts

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