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Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008
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Page 2 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Content Company introduction. China Passenger Car market 2007. Registration volume since 2002. Parts analysis based on registration data. Our new product developments in 2008.
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Page 3 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Founded in 1870 with more than 80 years’ experience in automotive industry Operating globally in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific with 1,500 employees We provide services to every global automotive brand Our core purpose is: –to collect and interpret data, and apply our automotive business expertise to help our clients make good business decisions and implement change on a global basis R. L. Polk is a global automotive expert
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Page 4 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Selection of our clients worldwide
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Page 5 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Polk China is a Joint Venture between R. L. Polk & Co and the Chinese Automotive Technology and Research Centre (CATARC - 中国汽车技术研究中心 ) Active in the Chinese market since January 1st, 2002 China clients include major OEMs like VW, AUDI, BMW, Honda, Toyota, Ferrari, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot, Foton and Hyundai Finance Beijing Polk-CATARC
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Page 6 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Content Company introduction. China Passenger Car market 2007. Registration volume since 2002. Parts analysis based on registration data. Our new product developments in 2008.
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Page 7 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved 6 year history (2002 – 2007) VIN Origin (imported / domestic) OEM Brand Model Engine displacement Transmission Production date Registration date Body color (from 2007) Vehicle Information National level Province level City level District level (county level city or county) Postal code level Geography Information Property type (personal / company) Purchase type (loan / cash) Gender (from 2007) Age (from 2007) Owner Information Passenger vehicle registration data – Data elements Model and Geography Segmentation Polk model segmentation – Body style and Vehicle size Customized model segmentation Customized geography segmentation
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Page 8 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Data Comparison Registration data can reflect China Passenger vehicle market domestic demand more accurately than wholesale data Note:(1) Passenger Vehicle includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up. (2) Wholesale data includes export and domestic demand, excludes import data. So registration data reflects the domestic demand. Stock increase led to wholesale data higher in Nov and Dec, lower in Jan
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Page 9 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved PV Registration Volume by Year PV registration in 2007 maintained its steady growth, reaching 4,663,245 units, a year-on-year growth of 21.9% Note: PV includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up.
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Page 10 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved PV Registration Volume and YoY Growth by Province Note: PV includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up. 90%
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Page 11 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Market share of Japanese brands grew steadily and accounted for nearly 30% in 2007 Origin Analysis Market Share ( % )
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Page 12 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Body Style Analysis SUVs achieved faster year-on-year growth than any other body styles in 2007 PV Market Growth ( by body style )
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Page 13 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Segmentation Analysis The medium segment accounted for nearly 50% of the total PV market in 2007 Market Share ( % )
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Page 14 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Legend Top 5 Provinces of Jap Brands Market Share **Japanese brands’ weight in provinces’ PV market Japanese Brands Market Share – Total 2007 Jap Brands Total Reg.: 1,392,139 National Aver. Market Share: 29.9% 1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Market Share by Province Prov.Market Share Guangdong49.8% Hainan43.2% Fujian36.9% Zhejiang35.1% Liaoning30.9% Higher than 40% 29.9% -40% 25% -29.9% -25% 0%0%
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Page 15 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved YOY Growth Comparison Jap Brands Vs. Province Market Total 2007 vs. Total 2006 Top 5 Provinces of Jap Brands YOY Growth Legend 1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Japanese Brands YOY Growth Vs. Total Market YOY Growth by Province Jap Brands YOY Growth Higher than Province Market Jap Brands YOY Growth Lower than Province Market Prov.YOY Growth Tibet89.9% Qinghai75.9% Gansu60.6% Henan52.9% Hunan48.8%
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Page 16 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved More new models were released by Japanese OEMs in 2006 and 2007 1. Japanese Brands Analysis - New Models 8 15 25 26 32 Note: “new model” includes models just launched,facelifts and new generation models, excludes small modifications and versions
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Page 17 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved 1. Camry - Winner in Upper Medium Sedan Segment Camry was released in Jun 2006, its market share reaching 20% in the upper medium sedan segment in 2007. Magotan performed below expectation with its market share only reaching 5%. New model release analysis
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Page 18 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved The 7 th generation introduced in Feb 2003 The 8 th generation introduce in Jan 2008 Present analysis Performance forecast 60 66 72 78 88 …… …… …… Average share:18.3% Average share:27.7% Average share:25.4% Average share:19.2% Average share:14.8% The life cycle of the 8 th generation Accord may be similar to that of the 7 th generation, reaching its peak in the second year 1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Accord’s Life-cycle Accord share in upper medium segment ( % ) Accumulated time after release ( month )
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Page 19 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved 2. SUV Analysis - by Province SUV market share in PV was higher in the northwest region, and some other regions like Anhui and Beijing also showed rapid growth SUV Registration YOY% SUV Share in PV SUV Registration Growth ( 2007 ) SUV Share in PV ( National ) 7.2% National YOY% of SUV 39.1%
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Page 20 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved SUV models priced between RMB150,000-250,000 achieved a significant increase Luxury SUV models were hot sellers in Zhejiang and Beijing 2. SUV Analysis - by Price Range
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Page 21 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved In terms of segment, the main driving force for SUVs in 2007 came form the medium segment, with the CRV leading the growth Medium SUVYOY increase ( unit ) CR-V17,186 Tucson14,037 Hover10,699 Zhongtai20089,900 Tiggo5,710 Total62,761 2. SUV Analysis - by Segment CR-V Tucson …… Jimny Terios …… Santa Fe Paladin …… Land Cruiser Q7 ……
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Page 22 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved 2. SUV Analysis - Winner: Honda CRV Released in Apr 2007, the 3 rd generation CRV became the leader in the medium SUV market very quickly with it’s share exceeding 30% The 3rd CRV released in Apr 2007 The 2nd CRV released in Apr 2004 The 2nd CRV’s share is 23.5% in it’s life-cycle.
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Page 23 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Registration Volume of Porsche Cayenne Competitor Set : Beijing( Jan-Dec 2007) Total Cayenne competitor set Registrations: 2,168 units Legend of Registration volume and dealerships locations by brand Beijing Jan-Dec 2007 by Post Code: Cayenne Competitor Set Cayenne competitor set includes : Porsche Cayenne (incl. S and Turbo) Audi Q7 BMW X5 Mercedes-Benz ML Series Volkswagen Touareg AUDI BMW MERCEDES-BENZ PORSCHE VOLKSWAGEN OVER 50 3030 to5050 10 to 3030 5 10 0 to 5
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Page 24 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved 3. Medium Segment Analysis - Body Style Sedans still dominated the medium segment with almost 80% of market share MPV and SUV segments showed rapid growth Market Growth in Medium Segment ( by body style ) Avg.YOY% of Medium segment : 33.1%
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Page 25 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved 3. Medium Segment Analysis - Sedan The top 5 models accounted for 36% of the total medium sedan market, but their year-on- year growth rates were much lower than the average rate. Top 5 Models of Medium Sedan ( 2007 ) Top 5 Medium Sedan Growth on Registration Note : Family II was released on Aug.31, 2006 50 models included in Other medium sedan segment
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Page 26 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved 3. Medium Segment Analysis – Car Buyers Compared to Excelle, Focus is more popular amongst the young and female buyers Car Buyers’ Age Distribution of Excelle & Focus Note: Excelle includes SW, sedan and HRV; Focus includes hatchback and sedan Car Buyers’ Gender Distribution of Excelle & Focus
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Page 27 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved 3. Medium Segment Analysis - Excelle sedan registration by grade and price Excelle sedan registration by price In terms of grade, Luxury 1.6 Excelle dominated the Excelle registration By price, Excelle grades priced RMB117,800 and RMB127,800 were hot sellers Year : 2007 Price : MSRP in Dec 2007 * Models in red color are the discontinued models Grade Price
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Page 28 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Content Company introduction. China Passenger Car market 2007. Registration volume since 2002. Parts analysis based on registration data. Our new product developments in 2008.
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Page 29 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Legend Top 5 Provinces China PV* Registrations 2002–2007 Total: 14,893,274 PV* PARC 2007: 19,577,912 2002-2007 PV* Reg. / PV* PARC: OVER 76% China PV* Registrations by Province (Year 2002-2007) ProvinceRegistrationShare Guangdong1,782,41811.97% Beijing1,419,2219.53% Zhejiang1,357,0779.11% Jiangsu1,304,4238.76% Shandong1,232,6028.28% OVER 1,000,000 500,000 to1,000,000 300,000 to500,000 100,000 to300,000 0 to100,000 Note: PV* includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, excluding SUV, MPV, VAN and Pick-up. PV* PARC 2007 : According to the statistics of MPS published Jan 4, 2008
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Page 30 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Top 5 Cities Legend CityRegistrationShare Beijing1,419,2219.53% Shanghai628,0444.22% Shenzhen473,0233.18% Tianjin430,0542.89% Chengdu380,0282.55% OVER 500,000 100,000 to500,000 50,000 to100,000 10,000 to50,000 0 to10,000 China PV* Registrations by City (Year 2002-2007) China PV* Registrations 2002–2007 Total: 14,893,274 PV* PARC 2007: 19,577,912 2002-2007 PV* Reg. / PV* PARC: OVER 76% Note: PV* includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, excluding SUV, MPV, VAN and Pick-up. PV* PARC 2007 : According to the statistics of MPS published Jan 4, 2008
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Page 31 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved China PV Market Credit Rate Vehicle credit buying started to improve since its low point in 2005 Toyota, GM and VW finance schemes performed well in the Beijing market. Credit rate Average5.8% VW7.2% GM7.3% Toyota11.3% Beijing PV market credit rate Total PV market credit rate PV market credit rate ( % )
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Page 32 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Content Company introduction. China Passenger Car market 2007. Registration volume since 2002. Parts analysis based on registration data. Our new product developments in 2008.
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Page 33 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Rear Suspension Distribution in Registration 2005 - 2007 Rear Suspension Distribution of 5 Hot selling Medium Sedans / Hatchbacks 5 hot selling models accounted for 28% of the total medium passenger car market Market share of cars equipped with double wishbones kept decreasing Note: 5 medium segment models include Hyundai Elantra, Buick Excelle, Nissan Tiida, Toyota Corolla, Haima Family
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Page 34 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Tire Type Distribution of 5 Hot selling Medium Sedans / Hatchbacks 5 hot selling models accounted for 28% of the total medium passenger car market Market share of cars equipped with tire type 195/60 R15 kept decreasing Note: 5 medium segment models include Hyundai Elantra, Buick Excelle, Nissan Tiida, Toyota Corolla, Haima Family Tire Type Distribution in Registration 2005 - 2007
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Page 35 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved Content Company introduction. China Passenger Car market 2007. Registration volume since 2002. Parts analysis based on registration data. Our new product developments in 2008.
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Page 36 © 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved New product development in 2008 Commercial vehicle registrations data. China Passenger vehicle Forecasts, model and regional level. New Price & Specification system with model volume.
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Questions ? Beijing Polk-CATARC 1160 Sunflower Tower 37 Maizidian Street, Chaoyang District Beijing 100026, PR China Tel +86 10 85276955 Fax +86 10 85275782 www.polk.com
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