1. Multimedia Resources: NWP Resources and new WRF Training Dr. William R. Bua, Project Scientist, UCAR/COMET Bill.Bua@noaa.gov

2. Talk Outline Introduction –Demystifying the NWP “black box” as a tool for understanding the atmosphere Training on NWP on MetEd –NWP Model matrix Nuts and bolts of NWP (PCU 1) Specific model “architecture” (PCU 2) Case studies (PCU 3) –Other content Teletraining, webcasts, NWP modules Multiple levels of content available –Introduction to meteorology –NWP/synoptic case study for advanced courses WRF: An NWP infrastructure, not a specific model!

3. NWP Then…. When I was an undergraduate at dear old State (Penn State)…. –Forecasting was an art, supported by science –Existing tools (1970s) Barotropic model (2 layers, 380km) Primitive Equation model (PE), 2.5°, 8 layers ran out to 84 forecast hrs with barotropic ext to 144 hrs, was NH only until 1974, then global domain Limited-area Fine Mesh (LFM, 190.5km, 6 layers) –24 hours in 1974, 48 hours by 1976 No biosphere modeling, soil modeling; fluxes were determined using crude energy balance methods

4. …and NOW Now, forecasting is a science [NWP]; the art is in its use –Global Forecast System (GFS) at T382 (about 50km equivalent), 64 levels run to 384 hours, 4 layer soil model, predicted cloud water; ensemble forecasts based on GFS –Climate Forecast System (CFS) T62 (about 310km equivalent), 28 levels run out 9 months, coupled to a global ocean model –North American Mesoscale (NAM) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM), 12km, 60 levels, 4 layer soil model

5. What May Be Common to Both NWP is a black box to many students (and forecasters, unfortunately) –Meteorological cancer * from unquestioning use of NWP Teaching is not just for meteorologists … –But for the non-meteorological public as well Multimedia is a good tool for demystification –Reaches people through visual, auditory, and even kinesthetic (e.g. VISITView, drawing/ participation by students) methods, “interactions” –Examples of some of these will follow * Snellman, L., National Weather Digest, 16, 1991.

6. Multimedia NWP Training Materials Many hours of training on generic NWP and model-specific architecture –Dynamics –Precipitation microphysics –Radiation and turbulence –Data assimilation –Post-processing Material was developed for training experienced NWS meteorologists rather than students –Assumes knowledge of acronyms, jargon/short hand, concepts that may not hold for students –Material can be parsed out for use in the classroom, especially graphics and some learning objects

7. MetEd NWP Topic: Everything NWP on COMET Special interest column on left –Currently contains WRF, ensembles, marine modules, new on-line lecture on radar Featured materials –Operational model matrix –NWP Distance Learning Course List of Available Modules –Many topics, multimedia methods –Most rated 2-3 in difficulty http://meted.ucar.edu/topics_nwp.php Special interest Featured materials Available modules

8. Case Studies Ready-made Lecture Materials Case studies − Many would be appropriate for advanced topics − Example will be shown later Ready-made lecture materials

9. http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/ NEW ITEMS! Aged “What’s New” PCU-1PCU-2

10. http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2 Other Links of Interest PCU-1PCU-2 Model Post-Processing Model Physics: Radiative Processes Model Physics: Precipitation and Clouds Model Data Assimilation

11. Example of introductory ideas re: NWP Take apart the model diagram (maybe a simplified version of it….) in model fundamentals Example: –The effect of using grid points in NWP models –Example issue: Effect of resolution of feature depiction Effect of resolution on movement of feature

12. Grid point concepts: discretization and horizontal resolution http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu1/ic2/1_4_3.htm

13. Grid point concepts: discretization and horizontal resolution

14. Example of introductory ideas re: NWP Take apart the model diagram in model fundamentals Example: –The effect of using grid points in NWP models –Example issue: Effect of resolution of feature depiction Effect of resolution on movement of feature

15. Introduction to Physical Processes: http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu1/ic1/2_2.htm ∆x Sub-grid scale convection Sub-grid scale convection

16. Processes Required in Convective Parameterization (CP) schemes

17. NWP Model Specifics USGS Vegetation Type, NESDIS Vegetation Fraction

19. Case Studies Good tools for inquiry about NWP from a pedagogical and operational meteorology perspective Possible inquiries: –Why did model not predict the weather event? –Why did model predict a weather event that did not occur? –How will new version of model (or entirely new model, like NAM NMM WRF) perform?

20. Case Study http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/06jan02/frameset.htm

21. What is taught with the case study? Started with a poor forecast Did inquiry as to what went wrong –Brings in initial condition errors –Inquiry results: what did the ensemble prediction system (Short- Range Ensemble Forecast or SREF for this case) forecast? –Brings in importance of the initial SREF perturbations including the true initial state: Did it include what seems to be the true state? –Inquiry results: NO! Why? –Gulf of Mexico had significant convection taking place, unpredictable effects of convection, etc. Use satellite derived winds (and radiosondes over southeast CONUS!) to see initial problems in wind field, convection in Gulf of Mexico. Point: forecasters must (and have the tools to) check the initial conditions in both the deterministic (Eta, GFS) forecast and the ensemble prediction system.

22. Is THIS W(o)RF?

23. WHAT IS WRF? WRF = Weather Research and Forecasting … infrastructure... not model! Used for both research and operations –End-to-end system using a Common Modeling Infrastructure Data assimilation system (including observation ingest, quality control, and analysis) Numerical Weather Prediction model Post-processing, product generation and display Verification and archive Many partners: NCAR, NCEP, GSD [FSL], OU/CAPS, AFWA, FAA, NSF and Navy Shared infrastructure allows research to transition to operations much more rapidly! Common postprocessor allows more ensemble options! WRF plans at NCEP: NAM, RUC, hurricane, SREF

24. The WRF Infrastructure: Plug and Play Compatibility (NCEP in red) DATA ASSIMILATION Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) WRF-VAR Standard Initiali- zationStandard Initiali- zation NWP NUMERICS: Dynamical cores Advanced Research WRF Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) Can opt for hydro or non-hydrost. for both Diffusion and damping options available NWS PHYSICS: Precipitation and cloud physics 9 options: From no ice (Kessler) to 6-moment (rain/snow/graupel) NCEP uses Ferrier scheme Convection Betts-Miller-Janjic Kain-Fritch Grell-Devenyi ensemble Radiation LW:RRTM or GFDL SW:Dudhia, Chou, or GFDL Surface Layer (2 options, both Monin- Obukov based) PBL (1 local, 2 non-local) Land surface (thermal only, NOAH, RUC) http://wrf-model.org/index.php

25. What is G rid-point S tatistical I nteropolation? (GSI) 3d-var Similar to a grid-point version of Spectral Statistical Interpolation in GFS Versions of GSI upcoming for GFS, RTMA, RUC, Hurricane WRF, others What’s in the NAM-WRF? Assimilation cycle example: 12 UTC model run NDAS + NAM AAF3 Analysis (early data cutoff) Analysis (late data cutoff) 3-hour forecast Cycling stays the same! Old NAM-EtaNew NAM-WRF A=Eta 3d-varGSI F3, F84=Eta modelWRF-NMM Input data=poor satellite data usebetter satellite data use, more future types F84

26. What COMET Has Available Two webcasts (short and long) –Short versionShort version http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/NAMWRF_short/ –Long versionLong version http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/NAMWRF Matrix details to come by end of September Teletraining (via VISITView) coming next month

27. Teasers from Teletraining (comparisons of NAM WRF v NAM Eta) Cold Season Examples: –11-12 February 2006 snow storm Warm Season Examples: –Tropical Storm Alberto and Katrina Rerun Other Examples –Phase speed (and overamplification?) problem (late April, early June)

28. Cold Season: NAM Northeast Storm 2/11-12/06 at 00z2006021200

29. Cold Season: NAMX Northeast Storm 2/11-12/06 at 00z2006021200

30. Tropical Storm Alberto: June 2006 1 st named storm of 2006 season NAM-Eta did poor job with development and movement NAM-WRF did better job earlier in the development, but was too strong w/cyclone for awhile. –Note: Two previous false alarms from NAM-WRF … this will likely be a characteristic of model, similar to how GFS behaved in past seasons NAM-WRF had precip. after landfall too far inland for a time NAM-WRF does *not* have vortex relocation like GFS

31. Tropical Storm Alberto: Sea Level Pressure Verification X 996-hPa X 996-hPa 12z 10 Jun 2006 NAM-WRF run 12z 11 Jun 2006 NAM-WRF run Where is it?

32. 12z 13 Jun 2006 NAM-WRF run X 996-hPa x X 996-hPa 12z 12 Jun 2006 NAM-WRF run Sea Level Pressure Verification

33. Hurricane Katrina Rerun (16km) Verification 12z29Aug 36hr fcst 24hr fcst

34. Phase Speed Problems at 500-hPa NAM Eta, NAM Eta minus NAM WRF NAM LOWER NAMX LOWER verification

35. 12 UTC 8 June 2006, 500-hPa height/vort NAM Eta

36. 12 UTC 8 June 2006, 500-hPa height/vort NAM WRF

37. Summary COMET has voluminous NWP training –NWP matrix (generic NWP, operational model specifics) –Case studies –Other multimedia (teletraining, webcasts) WRF modeling infrastructure is (and has been) here –A modeling infrastructure, not a single model Facilitate tech transfer from research to operations Plug and play architecture for choices of WRF components Discussed implementation combination possibilities –Cold and warm season examples –Phase speed problems

38. Where To Go for Materials MetEd web site (http://meted.ucar.edu, click on NWP topic)http://meted.ucar.edu NWP model matrix (http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2)http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2 –One stop shop for generic and model specific NWP E-mail to the COMET NWP Training Team –Bill.Bua@noaa.govBill.Bua@noaa.gov –Stephen.Jascourt@noaa.gov