1. Llad Phillips1 Part I Strategies to Estimate Deterrence Part II Optimization of the Criminal Justice System

2. Llad Phillips2 Testing crime control

3. Llad Phillips3 Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ? (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Weak Link

4. Llad Phillips4 Suicide AS A Proxy For Causes of Homicide

5. Llad Phillips5 FBI Vs. Vital Statistics

6. Llad Phillips6 Homicide Rate & Suicide Rate

7. Llad Phillips7 Schematic Model Causes Homicide Controls: Imprisonment rate Clearance ratio

8. Llad Phillips8 The story over time

9. Llad Phillips9 A Control Story: US _ _ Clearance ratio for homicide was falling from 1960 0n _ _ This could explain the rising homicide rate from 1965-1975 _ _ Imprisonment rate was pretty stable until 1980 when it started rising _ _ This could explain the falling homicide rate from 1995-2009

10. Llad Phillips10 Empirical Study of Certainty and Severity

11. Llad Phillips11 Empirical Study of Certainty, Severity, & Causality

12. Llad Phillips12 Outline _ Human Capital & Other News _ Studying for the Midterm _ Deterrence: _ Evidence pro _ Evidence con

13. Llad Phillips13 Human Capital news

14. Llad Phillips14 About 60% Of 9 th graders Get a diploma somewhere

15. Llad Phillips15 The high Hurdle? Algebra

16. Llad Phillips16 Studying For the Midterm _ http://econ.ucsb.edu/ http://econ.ucsb.edu/

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22. Llad Phillips22 Deterrence: conceptual issues _ _ Controlling for causality _ _ Simultaneity

23. Llad Phillips23 Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice Expect Get

24. Llad Phillips24 Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ? (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Weak Link Control for Causality

25. Llad Phillips25 Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ? (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Weak Link Recognize Simultaneity

26. Llad Phillips26 News Over the Weekend _ Deep Recession high Unemployment rate Keynesian Economics drop money from a helicopter? Or invest in infrastructure? TransportationEnergyindependencegreen

27. Llad Phillips27 Greening the Earth _ Greening UCSB _ Rec-Cen

28. Llad Phillips28 Human development Index and Electricity Use

29. Llad Phillips29 Production Function

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33. Llad Phillips33 Policy Comment About Economic Development _ _ An Obama Keynesian strategy: invest in infrastructure _ _ Past investments in infrastructure _ _ Canals _ _ Railroads _ _ Paved roads _ _ Airways _ _ ?

34. Llad Phillips34 Cesare Marchetti “Fifty-Year Pulsation In Human Affairs” Futures 17(3):376-388 (1986) www.cesaremarchetti.org/archive/scan/ MARCHETTI-069.pdf www.cesaremarchetti.org/archive/scan/ MARCHETTI-069.pdf Cesare Marchetti “Fifty-Year Pulsation In Human Affairs” Futures 17(3):376-388 (1986) www.cesaremarchetti.org/archive/scan/ MARCHETTI-069.pdf www.cesaremarchetti.org/archive/scan/ MARCHETTI-069.pdf _ _ Example: the construction of railroad miles is logistically distributed

35. Llad Phillips35 90%10% 1859 1890 1921

36. Llad Phillips36 Cesare Marchetti

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38. Llad Phillips38 Cesare Marchetti: Energy Technology: Coal, Oil, Gas, Nuclear 52 years57 years56 years

39. Llad Phillips39 Cesare Marchetti

40. Llad Phillips40 Theodore Modis Figure 4. The data points represent the percentage deviation of energy consumption in the US from the natural growth-trend indicated by a fitted S-curve. The gray band is an 8% interval around a sine wave with period 56 years. The black dots and black triangles show what happened after the graph was first put together in 1988.[7] Presently we are entering a “spring” season. WWI occurred in late “summer” whereas WWII in late “winter”.

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43. Llad Phillips43 Causality? Misery IndexOffense Rate Mystery Force

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45. Llad Phillips45 Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ? (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Weak Link Control for Causality

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47. Llad Phillips47 1851 1945 1900 1930

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50. Llad Phillips50 Part I Strategies to Estimate Deterrence

51. Llad Phillips51 Questions About Crime _ Why is it difficult to empirically demonstrate the control effect of deterrence on crime? _ What is the empirical evidence that raises questions about deterrence? _ What is the empirical evidence that supports deterrence?

52. Llad Phillips52 Evidence Against the Death Penalty Being a Deterrent _ Contiguous States _ Maine: no death penalty _ Vermont: death penalty _ New Hampshire: death penalty _ Little Variation in the Homicide Rate _ Source: Study by Thorsten Sellin in Hugo Bedau, The Death Penalty in America

54. Llad Phillips54 Isaac Ehrlich Study of the Death Penalty: 1933-1969 _ Homicide Rate Per Capita _ Control Variables _ probability of arrest _ probability of conviction given charged _ Probability of execution given conviction _ Causal Variables _ labor force participation rate _ unemployment rate _ percent population aged 14-24 years _ permanent income _ trend

55. Ehrlich Results: Elasticities of Homicide with respect to Controls Source: Isaac Ehrlich, “The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment

56. Llad Phillips56 Critique of Ehrlich by Death Penalty Opponents _ Time period used: 1933-1968 _ period of declining probability of execution _ Ehrlich did not include probability of imprisonment given conviction as a control variable _ Causal variables included are unconvincing as causes of homicide

57. Llad Phillips57 U.S. United States Bureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

58. Llad Phillips58 U.S. United States Bureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

59. Llad Phillips59 What is the Empirical Evidence that Supports Deterrence? _ Domestic violence and police intervention _ Experiments with control groups _ Traffic Black Spots _ Focused enforcement efforts

60. Llad Phillips60 Traffic Black Spots _ Blood Alley _ Highway 126 _ San Marcos Pass _ Highway 154

61. Llad Phillips61 San Marcos Pass Experiment _ Increase Highway Patrols _ Increase Arrests _ Total accidents decrease _ Injury accidents decrease _ Accidents involving drinking under the influence decrease

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63. Los Angeles Traffic Map

64. Llad Phillips64 Domestic Violence & Police Intervention

65. Llad Phillips65 1993-2005

66. Llad Phillips66 Female Victims of Violent Crime, 1973-2003

67. Llad Phillips67 Homicides of Intimates, 1976-2005

68. Llad Phillips68 Female Victims of Violent Crime _ In 1994 _ 1 homicide for every 23,000 women (12 or older) _ females represented 23% of homicide victims in US _ 9 out of 10 female victims were murdered by males _ 1 rape for every 270 women _ 1 robbery for every 240 women _ 1 assault for every 29 women

69. Victims of Lone Offenders* Annual Average Numbers

70. Llad Phillips70 United States Bureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

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72. Llad Phillips72 Average Annual Rate of Violent Victimizations Per 1000 Females

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74. Llad Phillips74 Declining Trends in Intimate Violence: Homicide

75. Llad Phillips75 Nonfatal Violent victimization Rates

76. Llad Phillips76 United States Bureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

77. Llad Phillips77 United States Bureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

78. Llad Phillips78 United States Bureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

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80. Llad Phillips80 Nonfatal intimate Victimization Rates By Age

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82. Llad Phillips82 Female victimization rates by relationship

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86. Llad Phillips86 Intimate homicides by weapon type

87. Llad Phillips87 Domestic Violence in California http://caag.state.ca.us/

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89. Llad Phillips89 Domestic Violence Rates in California: 1988-1998 1988: 113.6 per 100.000 1998: 169.9 per 100,000

90. Llad Phillips90 Domestic Violence in California 1988: 94% Male Arrests 1998: 83.5% Male Arrests

91. Llad Phillips91 Police Intervention with Experimental Controls _ A 911 call from a family member _ the case is randomly assigned for “treatment” _ A police patrol responds and visits the household _ police calm down the family members _ based on the treatment randomly assigned, the police carry out the sanctions

92. Llad Phillips92 Why is Treatment Assigned Randomly? _ To control for unknown causal factors _ assign known numbers of cases, for example equal numbers, to each treatment _ with this procedure, there should be an even distribution of difficult cases in each treatment group

93. Llad Phillips93 911 call (characteristics of household Participants unknown) Random Assignment code blue code gold patrol responds settles the household verbally warn the husbandtake the husband to jail for the night

94. Llad Phillips94 Part II Optimization of the Criminal Justice System

95. Llad Phillips95 Questions About Statistical Studies of Deterrence _ Do we know enough about the factors that cause crime? _ Can we find variables that will control for variation in crime generation? _ We have better measures for the factors that control crime than for the factors that cause crime. _ Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the effects of crime control.

96. Llad Phillips96 Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ? (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Weak Link

97. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control 1 2 3

98. Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice

99. control Causal factors

100. Expenditures per Capita Offenses Per Capita Crime Control Technology South Dakota North Dakota 2500 Index crimes per 100,000 people $100 $0 0

101. Llad Phillips101 Optimization of the Criminal Justice System (CJS) _ Minimize damages to victims plus the costs of control, subject to the crime control technology _ damages to victims per capita = loss rate per offense * offense rate per capita _ Costs of control = per capita expenditures on CJS _ Total cost = damages + expenditures

102. Expenditures per Capita Offenses Per Capita Crime Control Technology South Dakota North Dakota 2500 Index crimes per 100,000 people $100 Total cost = expenditures per capita $200 $0 0

103. Expenditures per Capita Offenses Per Capita Crime Control Technology South Dakota North Dakota 2500 Index crimes per 100,000 people $100 Total cost = expenditures per capita Total cost = damages to victims $200 $0 0 5000 Index offenses per 100,000 people = 0.05 per capita

104. Llad Phillips104 Expenditures per Capita Offenses Per Capita Crime Control Technology South Dakota North Dakota 0.025 Index crimes per capita $100 Total cost = expenditures per capita Total cost = damages to victims 0.050 Total cost = $200 per capita = damages to victims = loss rate*0.05 so loss rate = $4,000 per Index Crime in South Dakota $200 $0 0

105. Source: Phillips: Lecture One

106. Llad Phillips106 Expenditures per capita Offenses Per Capita 2500 Index crimes per 100,000 people $100 Total cost = expenditures per capita Total cost = damages to victims Family of Total Cost Curves High Low

107. Llad Phillips107 Expenditures per Capita Offenses Per Capita Crime Control Technology South Dakota North Dakota 2500 Index crimes per 100,000 people $100 Total cost = expenditures per capita Total cost = damages to victims

108. Llad Phillips108 Application of the Economic Paradigm _ Specify the feasible options _ the states of the world: Crime control technology _ Value the options _ loss rate per offense _ Optimize _ Pick the lowest cost point on the crime control technology

109. That’s all folks!

110. Crime Generation 1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment 2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors Offense rate per capita Expected cost(severity) of punishment crime generation function

111. Crime Generation 1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment 2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors Offense rate per capita Expected cost(severity) of punishment crime generation function High causal conditions Low causal conditions

112. Production Function for the Criminal Justice System (CJS) 1. Variation in expected costs of punishment with criminal justice system expenditure per capita Expected costs of punishment Criminal Justice System expenditures per capita production function

113. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control

114. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function

115. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0

116. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1

117. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1

118. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1

119. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1

120. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 2 2

121. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 2 2 3

122. per capita expenditures on CJS offense rate per capita expected cost of punishment Crime Generation Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control per capita expenditures on CJS Production Function square 45 0 1 1 2 2 3

123. Llad Phillips123 Female Victims of Violent Crime

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127. Long Swings in the Homicide Rate in the US: 1900-1980 Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice

128. Llad Phillips128 United States Bureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ Long Swings in The Homicide Rate

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