1. Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde: het einde van het 55 systeem? “ 1993 was a history-making year in Japanese politics. Our people recovered their status as masters of their political situation. I am very optimistic about the future Japanese capability to handle their political problems. ” (Naoki Tanaka, director of the 21 st Century Public Policy Institute)

2. Change …  Japanese politics in the 1990s: a new context End of the cold war Globalization Recession  Architect of the new  political era: Ozawa Ichiro Creates new party 1993 LDP in opposition LDP regains power Ichiro Ozawa in foreign policy making: http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/wpap017.cfm http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/wpap017.cfm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ichir o_Ozawa

3. The LDP desintegrates  Miyazawa Kiichi (1991-1993) Symbol of the old political generation Recruit scandal (‘89) Sagawa Kyubin scandal (‘92)  Kanemaru Shin convicted in 1992 for corruption  the end of a political generation and political culture

4. Miyazawa Kiichi

5. Struggle within the LDP  Obuchi Keizo vs Ozawa Ichiro  Reforming the election system  Ozawa becomes spokesman for reformers: factions and money barrier for normal political role for Japan  Young generation for Ozawa; older for Obuchi  Ozawa and 40 mp’s reach out to opposition

6. Miyazawa stumbles  Fails to reform election system  Economic recession worsens  Motion of no-confidence by opposition on 18-6-1993 accepted because of Ozawa’s support  Miyazawa disbands parliament and feels let down

7. The birth of an anti-LDP coalition: preparations  Masayoshi Takemura also leaves LDP and creates Sakigake さきがけ  Takemura reaches out to Morihiro Hosokawa’s Nihon Shinto 日本新党  Ozawa creates Shinseito 新政党  Ozawa fears coalition between LDP and Takemura-Hosokawa and starts negotiating with socialists for broad coalition against LDP

9. The birth of an anti-LDP coalition  Elections on 18-7-1993 New parties won many seats; LDP lost less than expected (275-223) and main loss with JSP (136-70) Ozawa disappointed because no majority: choice up to Takemura-Hosokawa: LDP or Ozawa?  Why did socialists join forces with Ozawa? New election system badly needed; impossible with LDP  Why did Takemura-Hosokawa choose for Ozawa? Ozawa offered prime minister position to Hosokawa Takemura had no choice and joined 6 parties in major coalition against LDP

10. Hosokawa Morihiro

11. The Hosokawa government  Hosokawa prime minister; Doi speaker; Takemura spokesman  Morihiro Hosokawa: successor of a political dynasty Opposition from the region Agenda:  Reform of the election system Accepted in 3-1994: 300 districts first pasts the post; 200 proportional representation  APL Hosokawa resigned in march 1994 after 9 months Coalition divided on article 9: Ozawa wants to change; Takemura opposed to change  End of the coalition in June 1994

12. Ozawa Ichiro pulls the strings …

13. The LDP regains power  LDP forms coalition with socialists and Sakigake: unlikely alliance in change for socialist prime minister  Tomiichi Murayama prime minister; Takeshita strong person  LDP considers SPJ as a faction

14. Murayama Tomiichi

15. Escalating social crisis  17-1-1995: Earthquake in Kobe Late and inadequate reaction  20-3-1995: Aum Shinrikyo’s sarin gas attack in Tokyo subway Poor control over religious groups  Socialist party under attack in 1995 higher house elections: maintains 16 from 46 seats  LDP regains full control at the start of 1996 but in a different context: coalitions become norm and transparency required

17. The economic engine sputters  Ryutaro Hashimoto (1996-1998) Takeshita faction Strong and nationalistic Reformer in Nakasone government  Deep recession: unemployment, bankcrisis, problem of US army bases in Okinawa and first elections according to new system

18. Hashimoto Ryutaro

19. Opposition inside and outside the government  Kan Naoto (Sakigake) Minister of Health Care Hemophilia patients infected with HIV virus Conflict between Kan and his ministry  Kan disappointed in own party and government: creates DPJ 日本民主党 with Hatoyama Yukio Right wing alternative to the LDP 57 mp ’ s join  LDP 239/500: minority government

20. Hashimoto as a ‘new leader’  Deregulation, reform and privatization Financial system Economy Education Administration (less ministries)  Coalition with Ozawa’s Shinshinto in 9-’97 Many members return to LDP Ozawa creates Liberal Party 自由党 Other members join the DPJ which becomes largest opposition party

21. Hashimoto’s failure: the final end of the miracle?  1997: a turning point East Asian financial crisis Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Yamaichi Shoken Long Term Credit Bank  Hashimoto insecure about which measures to take  Higher House elections in 1998: LDP wins 44 seats in stead of expected 61; DPJ won 47; Com. 23

22. Obuchi: ‘cold pizza’ or wily diplomat?  Obuchi Keizo (1998-2000) Obuchi used media well Wants strong government: coalition with Liberal party  Ozawa’s conditions Less ministries Answers in parliament by ministers  5-1999: 情報公開法 Mori Yohei: 天皇家の財布

23. Obuchi Keizo

24. Another unlikely partner: Komeito  Coalition joined by Komeito in 10-1999 Sokagakkai Against constitutional change For clean government Initially lower incomes but now elder middle class electorate  1-4-2000: Ozawa kicked out of coalition  One day later: brain hemorrhage but Obuchi very popular

25. Nationalism, Russia and blunders  Mori Yoshiro (2000-2001) Emperor is center Change constitution to cope with North-Korea Restore relations with Russia  Nationalism was popular but Mori not  General elections 25-6-2000 LDP loses majority; DPJ from 95 to 127  Mori steps back 3-2001

26. Mori Yoshiro

27. Koizumi: Japan’s Richard Gere?  Election of a new LDP president in front of Media  Choice between old and new Japan  Yasukuni: Yes!  Change the rules to elect the LDP president  Who is Junichiro Koizumi?  New Japan; new LDP with strong and open leadership (Tanaka, Fukuda and Takenaka)

29. Koizumi Junichiro Koizumi and anti-terrorist legislation: http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/sais_revie w/v023/23.1shinoda.html http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/sais_revie w/v023/23.1shinoda.html

30. Real opposition against the LDP  9-2003: unification of DPJ and LP  General elections of 10-2003 predicted to be ‘the day that the Berlin wall fell’.  Manifest  Koizumi faces problems: Tanaka out; conflict with Nakasone

31. The start of a new political era?  General elections 9-11-2003 LDP 247>237 DPJ 136>177 SPJ 18>6 Com. 20>9 Komeito 31>34  Komeito important  DPJ real alternative for LDP

32. Elections in November 2003

33. Vraag en lectuur volgende week (25 november 2009)  Which post-war Japanese Prime Minister was most influential (domestically and internationally)?  Hoofdstuk 5 en 6