1. South Africans’ Views of Parliament and MPs: A Comparative Perspective Presentation to Panel for Assessment of Parliament 12 February 2008 Robert Mattes Co-Founder and Senior Adviser, Afrobarometer Director, Democracy in Africa Research Unit Centre for Social Science Research, UCT

2. Today’s Presentation 1.Review of relevant data from the Afrobarometer –Knowledge About Parliament and MPs –Contact With MPs –Role Expectations of Parliament and MPs –Evaluations of Parliament and MPs –Key Determinant of Public Attitudes 2.Explaining public views of Parliament and MPs 3.New data and projects

3. Afrobarometer A comparative series of national public attitude surveys in Africa on Democracy, Markets and Civil Society Scientific project dedicated to accurate and precise measurement of nationally representative samples of publics Policy relevant project that inserts results into national and global policy discussion Ultimately, advancing democracy in Africa by promoting the voice of public opinion

4. When and Where In “reforming” African countries (generally, multi party regimes that have had a founding democratic election, or a re- democratizing election) Round 1 (12 countries, mid-1999 to mid 2001) in West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria in East Africa: Uganda and Tanzania in Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe Round 2 (16 countries, mid 2002-late 2003) –repeats original 12 (Zimbabwe in early 2004) –Adds Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, and Senegal Round 3 (18 countries, 2005) –Adds Madagascar and Benin

5. Sampling Random Clustered Stratified Area Probability Proportionate (some exceptions: e.g Tanzania, South Africa) Multi Stage Nationally representative Minimum Sample Size of 1200 gives a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points (2.8 points)

6. Interviewing Personal, face-to-face interviews Questionnaires translated in to local languages Interviewers fluent in local languages Strong emphasis on interviewer training

7. South Africans’ Knowledge of Parliament and MPs

8. Opinionation

9. Opinions On MP Performance

10. Has View on MP’s Most Important Responsibilities

11. Knowledge of Incumbent Identity

12. South Africa: Knowledge of Incumbent Identity

13. Knowledge of MP Identity

14. Knowledge The vast majority of South Africans are –able to offer a definite view on parliamentary performance (though at significantly lower levels than other Africans) –Able to state their expectations about what they want from MPs They are far less likely than other Africans to know who their MP is supposed to be They have far less awareness of MPs than other elected incumbents

15. Public Contact With MPs

16. Public Contact With Officials

17. Public Contact With Members of Parliament

19. South Africa: Public Contact With Leaders Over Time

20. Contact Public contact with MPs is as much as three times lower than many other, poorer African countries There is no sign that it is increasing (in contrast to contact with local councilors)

21. South Africans’ Role Expectations of MPs and Parliaments

22. Most Important Responsibilities of an MP? (Round 2) “In your opinion, what are the most important responsibilities of a Member of Parliament?”

23. Most Important Responsibilities of an MP (Round 2 - South Africa)

24. Constituency Service

25. Law Making

26. Elected Leaders Should Listen to Voters

27. Desired Level of Constituency Service

28. Responsibility for Holding Elected Leaders Accountable

29. Responsibility For Holding MPs Accountable

30. Role Expecations South Africans see the major role of the MP as: –representing specific constituencies (areas, or types of people) –Representing people’s opinions in the political process They want their MP to listen to their opinions and regularly visit their identified “constituency”, though far less regularly than other Africans They are far less likely than other Africans to see themselves as responsible for holding MPs accountable

31. South Africans’ Evaluations of Parliament and MPs

32. Trust in Institutions

33. South Africa: Trust In Political Institutions Over Time

34. Trust: President Vs. Legislature

35. Perceptions of Corruption

36. South Africa: Perceptions of Government Corruption Over Time

37. Perceptions of Corruption: President Vs. Legislature

38. Job Approval of Elected Leaders

39. South Africa: Job Approval of Elected Leaders Over Time

40. Job Approval: President Vs. Legislature

41. Perceived Ability to Make Representatives Listen (Round 2)

42. Responsiveness of Elected Officials

43. South Africa: Government Responsiveness Over Time

44. Responsiveness of MPs

45. Desired Level of Constituency Service

46. Perceived Level of Constituency Service

47. Constituency Service Deficit

48. Performance Public trust in Parliament has been increasing, but it has been increasing for all institutions. Parliament consistently lags behind the President in terms of public trust and job approval MPs seem to have shed a significant degree of public perceptions of their involvement in corruption People generally see MPs as uninterested in their opinions, distant, and do not feel they could make MPs listen to them There is a “representation gap” between what citizens want and what they say they are getting

49. What Explains These Attitudes? Individual Characteristics Individual Values Individual Evaluations National History –Colonial legacies –Post colonial legacies Political Institutions –Type of Executive (e.g. Presidential vs. Parliamentary) –Powers and Capacity of Legislature –Electoral Systems

50. Electoral Systems A set of rules and incentives that affect both elite and mass rational calculations of costs and benefits A conduit of information about the political system A device that teaches both leaders and citizens about their roles

51. Electoral Systems From the Standpoint of the Voter Single Member Plurality Constituencies –Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe Mixed / Hybrid Systems –Benin (MMD PR) –Lesotho (Mixed Member: SMDs + Top Up PR List) –Madagascar (Parallel: SMDs & MMD PR) –Mali (MMDs, Two Round Majority Run Off) –Senegal (Parallel: SMD + MMD Plurality + Top Up PR List) National / Regional List Proportional Representation –Cabo Verde, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa

52. Key Finding Citizens in African countries that use large (national / regional) list proportional representation are consistently different from others. –Less active citizens –Less knowledgeable citizens –Less citizen agency –More alienated citizens / higher protest Both SMD and Mixed systems have various strengths and advantages over List PR in terms of democratic citizenship

53. Electoral System As A Conduit of Information

54. Know Identity of MP (by Electoral System)

55. Electoral System and Elements of Political Information (Measures of Association) Eta Identity of MP.339 (SMD) Identity of Councilor.297 (Mixed) Identity of Deputy President.290 (SMD) Which party has most seats.189 (SMD) Number of terms President can service.098 (SMD) Who can declare laws unconstitutional.112 (PR)

56. Political Knowledge (Correct Answers Provided To Questions on Incumbent Identity and Key Political Facts)

57. Citizen Awareness of Incumbent Identity and Key Political Facts (Eta =.223)

58. Electoral System As A Source of Cost-Benefit Calculus

59. Public Contact With MPs in Past Year (Eta =.060)

60. Attended a Protest or Demonstration March (Eta =.115)

61. Electoral System As A Source of Political Values

62. Elected Leaders Should Listen to Voters (Eta =.187)

63. Constituency Service

64. Law Making

65. How Much Time Should MP Spend In Constituency? (Eta =.133)

66. Responsibility for Holding MPs Accountable (Eta =.332)

67. Predicting Information Electoral System –PR---- –Mixed--- Cognitive Awareness –Formal Education++++ –Cognitive Engagement+ Participation –Party Identification++ –Contact Councilor++ –Community Participation+ Social Structure –Female-- –Age++ N=20,062 Adj. R 2 =.378

68. Predicting Demand for Democracy Electoral System –PR-- –Mixed++ Cognitive Awareness –Political Information++ –News Media Use++ –Formal Education+ –Cognitive Engagement+ Values –Hold Bureaucrats Accountable++ –Demand Rule of Law++ –Demand Freedom of Speech++ –Support Equality+ Performance Evaluations –People Less Free to Speak Mind_ Social Structure –Female- N=20,315 Adj. R 2 =.244

69. Predicting Protest Electoral System –PR++ Cognitive Awareness –Cognitive Engagement+ –News Media Use+ Participation –Community Participation+++ –Contact Govt Official+ Performance Evaluations –Victimization+ Social Structure –Age- N= 20,054 Adj. R 2 =.107

70. In Large List PR Systems (e.g. South Africa) Rational Choice Argument –Less Contact Between MPs and Constituents Cognitive Argument –Less Awareness of MP –Less Awareness of other incumbents and key facts about political system –Less Engagement With Politics Learning Argument –Citizens les likely to believe they have active role to play in criticizing, holding leaders accountable

71. In Sum Large (national / regional) List PR brings these three effects together with disastrous effects. –It reduces incentives for people to remain mentally engaged with democratic politics –It takes away the means for them to do so if they wanted to –It re-orients them toward a less active role as citizens And most importantly for the topic at hand, has an extremely negative impact on citizens’ relationship with their elected representatives and with the institution of Parliament

72. New Studies and Data Afrobarometer Round 4 –18-20 Countries, 2008 African Legislatures Project –18-20 Countries, 2008-2009

73. African Legislatures Project Based at DARU University of Cape Town Purpose –Describe legislative performance in broad areas of Law Making Oversight Representation –Attempt to explain performance in terms of constitutional powers, legislative rules, legislative capacity, MP values, public support

74. African Legislatures Project Collect data from Constitutions, Standing Orders and relevant legislation on powers of the legislature and executive (done) In country observational research to collect data on legislative rules, procedures, capacity and performance (beginning) MP surveys to measure MP values and preferences (beginning) Compare with Afrobarometer data on public values and preferences