1. Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah

3. www.support.smartgrowthamerica.o rg/growing_cooler

4. Climate Change Is the Ultimate Green Issue

5. Chapter 3

7. Climate Change Impacts at 2 to 3°C l More than 1/3 of species at risk of extinction (corals, polar bears…) l Amazon rainforest & Great Lakes ecosystem at risk of collapse l Hundreds of millions displaced from coastal areas, at risk of hunger l Partial deglaciation of Greenland Ice Sheet expected to begin: sea level to increase 4-6 meters over centuries to millennia

8. Global Warming Fingerprints Hurricanes Ophelia, Nate, and Maria were among 15 hurricanes that raged across the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean in 2005.

9. Global Warming Fingerprints

10. J. Madsen and E. Figdor, When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the United States, Environment America Research & Policy Center, December 2007. http://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/oy/ws/oywshWAwZy-EXPsabQKd4A/When-It-Rains-It- Pours----US---WEB.pdf

11. Energy Bill : CAFE & -10% Fuel GHG by 2025

12. VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill Savings

13. Chapter 4

14. Main Questions Addressed 1.What reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the United States with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl? 2.What reduction in CO 2 emissions will accompany such a reduction in VMT? 3.What policy changes will be required to shift the dominant land development pattern from sprawl to compact development?

15. Portland vs. Raleigh

16. 35% Less VMT with Compact Development

17. Southern Village (40% lower)

18. Answer to 1 st Question 20-40% VMT Reduction for Each Increment of Compact Development

19. Doing the Math through 2050 60-90% Compact x 67% New Development x 30% VMT Reduction = 12-18% Reduction in Metropolitan VMT

20. Add Smart Growth -15% VMT  2030 CO 2 is 14% below 1990

21. Chapter 8

22. What Would It Take? l What would it take to reach the 2030 CO2 reduction target of 33 percent below 1990 levels? l Will compact development with supportive transportation policies be enough? l If not, how much VMT reduction must be achieved through pricing, and what price changes would be required?

23. Urban VMT Reduction Elasticities of VMT with Respect to Policy Variables Change in Annual Growth Rates of Policy Variables (% above/below Trend) Effect on Annual VMT Growth Rate (% below Trend) Population density –0.301–7.7% Highway lane miles 0.55–1–11.4% Transit revenue miles –0.062.5–4.6% Real fuel price –0.172.7–14.4%

24. Compact Development + Transit + Road Pricing - Highway Expansion = 38% VMT reduction by 2030

25. No Ballot Measure Can Be Considered Green If It Includes a Lot of New Money for Highways

26. 1995 Report on Induced Travel (with Minority View)

27. Short-Term Supply and Demand

28. Short-Term Increases in Traffic l New Trips l More Distant Destinations l Mode Shifts l Route Shifts* * Most important effect according to Dowling et al., 1994

29. Long-Term Supply and Demand

30. Long-Term Increases in Traffic l Higher Car Ownership l Reduced Transit Service l Activity Location Shifts* * Most important effect according to Cervero, 2002

31. Growth of Traffic Over Time

32. Cervero’s Bottom Lines “…the preponderance of research suggests that induced-demand effects are significant, with an appreciable share of added capacity being absorbed by increases in traffic.” “All that can be said with certainty is that induced-demand effects exist … and they accumulate over time.”

33. Average Elasticities Facility-Specific Studies Areawide Studies Short-Term00.4 Medium-Term0.27NA Long-Term0.630.73

34. No Transit Measure Can Be Considered Green Unless It Is Coupled with Transit-Oriented Development

35. What is TOD? TOD is widely defined as compact, mixed- use development near transit facilities with high- quality walking environments, not necessarily at the expense of automobile access.

36. More Than 100 TODs in USA

37. High Mode Shares for TOD Residents

38. Introducing the 3Ds

39. Density

40. 33 Units per Acre (gross)

41. 15 Units per Acre

42. Diversity

43. Seamless Pattern

44. Design

45. Simple Correlations with Design Variables

46. Pedestrian-Friendly Design

48. Effect of Density – Bay Area Rail

49. Effect of Diversity

50. Effect of Design