1. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIANA BAT MATERNITY RANGE Susan Loeb and Eric Winters USFS, Southern Research Station

2. WinterSummer

3. Gardner and Cook 2002

6. No Records Hibernacula Maternity Colonies Hibernacula & Mat Colonies

8. Gardner & Cook 2002

9. Given: 1)Northern maternity distribution 2)Restriction to mountains in SE 3)Sufficient habitat Questions: 1)Does climate affect summer MYSO distribution? 2)How will warmer temps affect summer distribution in the future?

10. Methods 183 Summer maternity records Maxent – Maximum entropy model – Presence only – 75% training, 25% test

11. Methods Current distributions – County level PRISM climatology – 1970-2000 monthly means Tmax Avg across May-Aug Precip May-Aug Elevation Future distributions – 4 Future climate forecasts – 2021-30, 2031-40, 2041-50, 2051-60

12. Current Distribution Training data (AUC = 0.83) Random pred (AUC = 0.50)

13. Important Variables AvgTmax = 41.5% Elevation = 24.8% May Precip = 27.6%

14. Important Variables AvgTmax = 41.5% Elevation = 24.8% May Precip = 27.6% 74.1-81.3 °F

15. Current Distribution

17. AvgTmax

18. May Precipitation

22. Change in Area

24. Some Caveats Correlative study Does not consider land-use changes – Maternity roosts urban to forested areas Does not consider CC effects on hibernacula

25. Research & Management Implications Role of heat in Indiana bat roost site selection? ?

26. Management Implications Importance of Appalachians – Restore pine-oak habitats – Maintain large dbh snags – Change in micro-habitat selection?

27. Management Implications Interactions with WNS?

28. Management Implications Interactions with WNS?

29. Questions?