1. University Admissions Professor David Eastwood, Vice-Chancellor, University of Birmingham, Chair of the Russell Group HEPI – HEA Conference, 15 May 2013

2. University Admissions What is shaping the environment? What is happening in the market place? What next?

3. 1. What is shaping the environment?

4. 1.1 What is shaping our environment? An improvised government policy Evolving patterns of student choice The economic cycle Fragility of the PG market Fragility of the part-time market An increasingly challenging international environment Employability Global citizenship

5. 1.2 What is shaping our environment? Partial deregulation of the home market Novel patterns of competition between institutions Few institutions are only in one market; and increasingly few are wholly selecting institutions Fee levels and fee discounting New providers Market concentration, notably of high-cost subjects

6. 1.3 What is shaping our environment? Changing expectations of students New modes of delivery Challenge of online provision Need to generate increased cash for reinvestment Fees will fall in real terms for the foreseeable future

7. 2. What is happening in the market place? What has happened since the introduction of higher fees? Trends from the UCAS End of Cycle Report 2012

8. 2.1 What has happened since the introduction of higher fees? At the close of the 2013 UCAS applications cycle 34.8% of the 18 year old age cohort had applied for university This is the second highest on record (35% in 2011) There has been an increase in the number of applicants from the lower socio-economic quintile There has been a decrease in the number of applicants from the higher socio-economic quintile

9. 2.2 Trends from the UCAS End of Cycle Report 2012

10. Applicants by domicile group (2004-2012) Source: UCAS End of Cycle report, 2012

11. Acceptances by domicile group (2004-2012) Source: UCAS End of Cycle report, 2012

12. Acceptances by acceptance route (2004-2012) (logarithmic scale) Source: UCAS End of Cycle report, 2012

13. Acceptances by POLAR2 quintile (UK domiciled only, aged 19 and under 2006-2012) Source: UCAS End of Cycle report, 2012

14. Acceptances by sex (2006-2012) Source: UCAS End of Cycle report, 2012

15. Institutions that improved performance in 2012 (Number of Degree Accepts - UK domiciled only 2010-2012) Source: UCAS End of Cycle report, 2012

16. Institutions with decreased performance in 2012 (Number of Degree Accepts - UK domiciled only 2010-2012) Source: UCAS End of Cycle report, 2012

17. Subject Trends by JACS Subject Group (Number of Degree Accepts - UK domiciled only 2010-2012) Source: UCAS End of Cycle report, 2012

18. 3. What next? Aggregate demand for full-time home undergraduate will hold up There will continue to be complex patterns of redistribution between institutions Demand for HSS will stabilise High cost subjects will suffer if they remain underfunded The fee cap will constrain quality

19. 3. What next? Student support will be reformed (again), though the impact on demand will be limited Part-time numbers will fall until the economy picks up PGT home demand will remain soft and strongly price sensitive International recruitment will be challenging Strategy must be to know what youre good at, invest in it, and aspire to best in class

20. Questions Professor David Eastwood, Vice-Chancellor, University of Birmingham, Chair of the Russell Group HEPI – HEA Conference, 15 May 2013