1. Centre for the Study of Public Policy CSPP PROBLEMS OF DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE IN AN EXPANDING EUROPE PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy Istituto Italiano di Scienze Umane Florence 27 April 2009 Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

2. 2. WHAT WAS EUROPE WHEN? ALTERNATIVE 20th CENTURY DEFINITIONS OF EUROPE 1900: UNDEMOCRATIC MULTI-NATIONAL EMPIRES. E.g. Tsarist, Prussian, Habsburg, etc. 1919: VERSAILLES TREATY: Undemocratic nation-states. 1948: IRON CURTAIN. Democratic nation-states = Western Europe Socialist "democracy" = Eastern Europe in Soviet bloc Mitteleuropa disappears 1989: BERLIN WALL FALLS. Central Europe re-appears. More nation-states recognised. Democracy remains. Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

3. 3. WHAT PROBLEMS? WHAT SOLUTIONS? *People: Vote out leaders, change coalitions. *Institutions: Amend one or more features of constitution *National income: Increase Gross Domestic Product *Legacy of a Communist past: Celebrate freedom. Inter-generational change *National culture: Wait hundreds of years *Governance--relation between government and citizens. Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

4. 4. THE EUS COPENHAGEN STANDARDS OF GOVERNANCE Democracy Rule of law Human rights and protection of minorities Functioning market economy Bureaucracy can administer acquis communitaire CRITERIA ARE: Consensual ideals Multiple Decided by external elites Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

5. 5. THE STANDARD OF PUBLIC OPINION A bottom up view from the grassroots vs. A top down view from Brussels Realistic differences vs. Consensual ideals Quantified, reliable vs. Imprecise DATA: CSPP New Europe Barometer/ Turkish Election Study 2007 See R. Rose, UNDERSTANDING POST-COMMUNIST TRANSFORMATION: A BOTTOM UP APPROACH (Routledge, 2009, paperback)F Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

6. 6. THRESHOLD FOR EU ADMISSION, 2004 How citizens of 8 formerly Communist countries evaluated their governance Lowest reply *Overthrow of political regime unlikely 83% Poland *Do you think people like yourself are treated equally and fairly?19% Hungary *Respect of government for human rights 42% Czech R *Getting by economically without borrowing, spending savings 59% Poland Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

7. 7. ENLARGEMENT COUNTRIES: WHAT THEIR CITIZENS THINK Popular evaluation of citizens by Copenhagen criteria BulgariaRomaniaCroatiaTurkey (percent) No threat overthrow govt. 89878789 People treated equally19284553 Respect for human rights45305165 Coping economically6856na72 All applicants at or above the 2004 threshold Source: New Europe Barometer, 2004/5' Turkish Election Study, 2007 Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

8. 8. CORRUPTION, A CHALLENGE TO SOME OLD AND NEW EU MEMBERS Transparency International Corruption Index Denmark, Finland 9.4 Sweden 9.3 Netherlands 9.0 Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4 Austria 8.1 Germany 7.8 OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6 Ireland 7.5 France 7.3 Belgium 7.1 Spain 6.7 Portugal 6.5 Italy 5.2 Greece 4.6 6.6 Slovenia 6.5 Estonia 5.8 (Malta) 5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus) 5.2 Czech Republic 5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU 4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania 4.2 Poland 4.1 Bulgaria 3.7 Romania Old EU members New EU members 1 Most corrupt 10 Highest integrity Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007, www.transparency.org. Accessed 20 May 2008. Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

9. 9.PROBLEMS OF MULTI-LEVEL AND MULTI-FUNCTIONAL GOVERNANCE Democracy essential COUNCIL OF EUROPE: 41 members. Democratic governance and freedoms, subject to occasional political pressures. EUROPEAN UNION: 27 members. Democratic governance and single Europe market. Money EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK: 12 members. Common currency, interest rates EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT: 61 countries financing development from Central Europe to Central Asia + Turkey. Guns NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization): 26 members + ? American-led security alliance against Soviet Union. OSCE (Organization for Security & Cooperation in Europe). 55 members from Albania to USA and Uzbekistan. Conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict management in Europe. Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

10. 10. CLUSTERS OF INSTITUTIONAL INTERDEPENDENCIES DEMOCRACY, MONEY & GUNS. Some old member states of European Union, e.g. ITALY, France, Germany and Benelux countries are all in EU, ECB, and NATO. DEMOCRACY & MONEY (belong to EU and ECB) but NO GUNS (Not NATO). Austria, Finland, Ireland. DEMOCRACY & GUNS (EU and NATO) but not in Eurozone. Britain, Denmark, + new EU member states which are supposed to join Eurozone DEMOCRATIC but outside EU and ECB: Norway (in NATO). Switzerland (outside NATO) Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09

11. 11. BALANCING NATIONAL, EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL INTERESTS OECD. Includes Japan, Australia, Korea, USA, Mexico and Turkey. WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. Global in scope. Alliances very sensitive to products, e.g. grain, cheap textiles, steel as well as geography. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. A central banker to central banks from Britain to the poorest countries. WORLD BANK. Economic aid for middle and low income countries promoting economic growth and human development. Becoming concerned with governance. UNITED NATIONS. Median member state is partly free. No economic powers. Security council vetoes limit peace-keeping role. Strozzi4-2009.ppt 18.4.09