1. Economic Development Framework for Interpreting Local Housing Markets in Small Town Canada Laura Ryser 1, Greg Halseth 1 & David Bruce 2 1 University of Northern British Columbia 2 Mount Allison University

2. Overview Rural Restructuring and Housing Linkages Defining Rural and Small Town Places Clustering Places by Economic Activity Framework for Understanding Change Case Studies –Port Clements, BC –Gold River, BC Discussion

3. Rural Restructuring and Housing Housing investments based on projected future Employers may face difficulty with housing shortages or lack of affordability Lenders / insurers concerned about ability to recover losses on property in default

4. Defining Rural and Small Town Places Definitions link to why / what people are exploring in rural and small town places Census Subdivisions (CSDs) –Relatively stable –Facilitate comparisons over time No MIZ and Weak MIZ used Places selected: –Population 50 - 4,999 –First Nations reserves excluded

5. Distribution of Places by MIZ Designation & Population Group Population Group MIZ CodeTotal No MIZWeak MIZ 2,500-4,999 % within population group3.7% 96.3%134 50-2,499 % within population group47.3% 52.7%1,298 Total Count % within population group43.2% 56.8%1,432 Source: Derived from Rambeau, S. and K. Todd. 2000. Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ) with Census Data. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

6. Clustering Places by Economic Activity Threshold: 25% of labour force employed in a sector or 25% age 65+ SIC=Standard Industrial Classification 1980 Economic sectors include: –agricultural –fishing –forestry –mining –tourism –manufacturing 1 Dynamic services = transportation & storage, communication & utility, wholesale, finance, real estate & business 2 Non-market services = government, education, health, and social services –dynamic services 1 –non-market services 2 –retirement –dual specialization –non-specialized

7. Models of Community Development Lucas (1971) –Construction –Recruitment –Transition –Maturity Bradbury (1988) –Winding down –Closure Halseth and Sullivan (2002) –Alternative futures

8. Framework for Understanding Change in the Local Economy Start-up Growth Plateau Decline Alternative Futures –Transform into another economic sector and grow –Transform and plateau at a similar level –Transform and decline –Function in same sector at a lower plateau –Decommission / closure

9. Socio-economic Characteristics to Indicate Change in Community Development Population Household Migration Income Labour Force Participation Housing

10. Summary of RST Population Change All Communities with 1991 Population 50-4,999, 1991-2001 Source: Statistics Canada 2001, 1991. CategoryTotal Lost%Total Gained %N= All communities95471.038829.01342 Agricultural23684.94215.1278 Fishing2195.514.522 Forestry969.2430.813 Mining2388.5311.526 Tourism650.06 12 Manufacturing9080.42219.6112 Dynamic2754.02346.050 Non-market14354.012246.0265 Retirement3071.41228.642 Dual specialization21772.88127.2298 Non-specialized14465.27734.8221

11. Case Studies I Purposeful sampling methodology 11 case studies reflect the 11 sectors Case studies drawn from database Triangulation –Newspaper archives, reports, gov’t publications, community websites, etc.

12. Case Studies II

13. Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline I Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities Decline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities Population Characteristics % Pop’n changeDecrease % Pop’n 0-14Decrease % Pop’n 15-24Decrease % Pop’n 25-44Decrease % Pop’n 45-64Increase % Pop’n 65+Increase Household Characteristics Change in % lone parent familiesIncrease Change in % one-person households Increase Change in % families with childrenDecrease Change in youth dependency ratioDecrease Change in elderly dependency ratioIncrease

14. Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline II Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities Decline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities Income Characteristics Change in % employment incomeDecrease Change in % gov’t transfer paymentsIncrease Change in % other incomeIncrease Labour Force Characteristics Change in % employed in forestry/manufDecrease Change in LF Participation rate 15+Decrease Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+ Decrease Change in % commute outside CSDIncrease Housing Characteristics Change in % built last 5 yearsDecrease % Change in average dwelling valueDecrease

15. Forestry: Port Clements Decline period: 1996-2001 –1996: 44% employed in forestry –2001: 33.3% employed in forestry No MIZ status –42 kms to Masset –6 hour ferry ride to Prince Rupert

16. Port Clements I: 1996-2001 Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities Port Clements 1996-2001 Population Characteristics % Pop’n changeDecrease-7.5% % Pop’n 0-14Decrease-17.9% % Pop’n 15-24Decrease-6.7% % Pop’n 25-44Decrease-30.0% % Pop’n 45-64Increase12.5% % Pop’n 65+Increase16.7% Household Characteristics Change in % lone parent familiesIncrease14.4% Change in % one-person householdsIncrease4.6% Change in % families with childrenDecrease-15.2% Change in youth dependency ratioDecrease-2.1% Change in elderly dependency ratioIncrease2.5%

17. Port Clements II: 1996-2001 Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities Port Clements 1996-2001 Income Characteristics Change in % employment incomeDecrease0.9% Change in % gov’t transfer paymentsIncrease1.2% Change in % other incomeIncrease-2.5% Labour Force Characteristics Change in % employed in forestryDecrease-11.3% Change in LF Participation rate 15+Decrease-1.9% Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+Decrease11.7% Change in % commute outside CSDIncrease-36.5% Housing Characteristics Change in % built last 5 yearsDecrease-16.1% % Change in average dwelling valueDecrease18.5%

18. Port Clements: Context for Change Challenges –Isolation –Softwood Lumber Dispute –Crown land controlled by large corporations –Aboriginal land claims –Regionalization of services in Terrace

19. Port Clements: Context for Change Alternative Futures / Opportunities –Non-market service sector growing –Broadband Internet access –Off-shore oil and gas –Cinola mine site –Community forest

20. Manufacturing: Gold River Decline period: 1991-2001 –1991: 47.1% employed in manufacturing –2001: 2.7% employed in manufacturing –2001: 28.9% employed in non-market services Weak MIZ status –90 kms from Campbell River

21. Gold River I: 1991-2001 Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Manufact. Towns Gold River 1991-2001 Population Characteristics % Pop’n changeDecrease-37.3% % Pop’n 0-14Decrease-52.9% % Pop’n 15-24Decrease-52.4% % Pop’n 25-44Decrease-56.3% % Pop’n 45-64Increase25.0% % Pop’n 65+Increase600.0% Household Characteristics Change in % lone parent familiesIncrease-2.3% Change in % one-person householdsIncrease7.1% Change in % families with childrenDecrease-26.5% Change in youth dependency ratioDecrease-10.1% Change in elderly dependency ratioIncrease9.7%

22. Gold River II: 1991-2001 Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities Gold River 1991-2001 Income Characteristics Change in % employment incomeDecrease-15.6% Change in % gov’t transfer paymentsIncrease5.8% Change in % other incomeIncrease10.0% Labour Force Characteristics Change in % employed in manufacturingDecrease-44.4% Change in LF Participation rate 15+Decrease-10.2% Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+Decrease-0.5% Change in % commute outside CSDIncrease3.4% Housing Characteristics Change in % built last 5 yearsDecrease0.0% % Change in average dwelling valueDecrease-13.1%

23. Gold River: Context for Change Challenges –Poor newsprint prices –High fibre, transportation, and energy costs –High bank interest –Increase in stumpage rates –Economic slump in Asia –Mill closure

24. Gold River: Context for Change Alternative Future / Opportunities –Commercial / tourism fishing re-opened in 1997 –Gold River Housing Corporation – sale in 1999 –Provincial funding to maintain services / ease burden of lost tax base –Epcor power plant

25. Discussion I Housing is an important commodity and service Decisions must be taken with care and appropriate information Mortgage insurance providers, investors, and policy makers need to look beyond the current state of the economy

26. Discussion II Framework to understand trajectory of economic development in RST places 11 types of economic sectors Socio-economic characteristics provide mechanism for tracking change Case studies reasonably consistent with framework Inconsistencies demonstrate that places are unique – context matters

27. 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, Canada V2N 4Z9 http://www.unbc.ca/cdi Dr. Greg Halseth, Acting Director Phone: (250) 960-5826 Fax: (250) 960-6533 Email: halseth@unbc.ca Community Development Institute (CDI)