1. - chronic poverty in rural Ethiopia Laura Camfield, UEA and Keetie Roelen, IDS

2. Big drops in poverty rates However – Disparities between regions Seasonal fluctuations Persistent group of chronically poor and food insecure 1994/952004/052009/10 poverty rates 49.5%38.7%29.2% Source: MoFED, 2010 2DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen

3. categoryR1R2R3 ultra-poor78.68.4 poor49.82417.2 nearly poor35.655.541.8 not poor7.71232.6 Transition analyses show that 13% of households have been poor across all three rounds (2002-9) 3DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen

4. Ethiopia (rural sites and older cohort only) 3 rounds of quan data: 2002, 2006, 2009 Qual data from 8 sites in 2008, 2009 4DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen

5. QUAL QUAL QUAN QUAN developing classification of an emic children and households taxonomy (ultra-poor, poor, nearly poor, not-poor) Papers: Roelen and Camfield, 2012; Camfield and Roelen, 2012a; Camfield and Roelen, 2012b 5DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen

6. Factor Total no: of households reporting factor (n=32) No: of female headed households reporting factor (n=8) No: of older household heads reporting factor (n=6) Climate (e.g. drought, timing of rains, storms) 3076 Family illness2465 High food prices1745 Own illness1724 Death of animals1724 Exclusion from PSNP1633 Disputes (e.g. neighbours, criminal authorities) 1653 Cost of fertiliser and seeds 1515 Lack of labour1363 Bad debt912 Low prices for produce710 6DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen

7. Causes of poverty Most common combination of causes (41% of cases) were: i) climate, typically lack of rainfall ii) family illness iii) lack of labour iv) high food prices 7DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen

8. Female household head Young household head (<35 years) Disabled household head Divorced, single or widowed head More female than male labour within the household Education of household head appeared to have no effect 8DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen

9. No single theory, but some common elements Structure and agency Tactics/ getting by vs. strategies Critique of life stages (age norms, biographical scripts, other life courses) Heyman (2009) – the waged life course vs. generational sequencing in Sonora, Mexico Lives characterised by turning points, fateful or critical moments, vital conjunctures (zones of possibility) DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen9

10. Individuals and their social connections (families, peers, etc.) Macro level change and institutions Mayer – transition of former soviet countries, Elder – great depression, USA Influence of early life; cumulative effects (e.g. Rutter and childrens resilience) ORand, 1996 - stratification over the life course Timing of events matters (and interventions?) DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen10

11. Subjunctivity (Whyte) what people as subjects are trying to do - what they are hoping for, how they deal with their life conditions, and how things unfold for them over time (p171) Social navigation (Vigh) relationship between choices and the social bonds in which they are embedded in a volatile and interactive environment Relationality (Bledsoe, Lamb, Locke) inherently relational, made up of networks of ties that they share with other people, places and things (Lamb, 1997:297) Chance (di Nunzio, Cooper, others...) promises reversibility of trajectories of marginalisation and exclusion but can be illusory Managing (Langevang) or bricolage DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen11

12. Socio-cultural institutions Education ended early due to marriage Conflict with neighbour over land State institutions Healthcare – asset sale, drop out from school Excluded from PSNP Events Husbands health affected by Eritrean war Two years of crop failure DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen12

13. Quantitative analysis flags risk (female household head) and cumulative disadvantage We also see effects of institutions (social protection, healthcare, attitudes to womens education and landowning) and historical events (Eritrean war) And the timing of her husbands death while her children were still young She is embedded in relationships, but has few social resources Still, she is managing and pursuing a hoped for if uncertain future through her childrens education DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen13