1. SEP Forecast Product: Data Description Only Arik Posner 1,2 (1) Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX (2) currently at NASA/HQ, SMD-Heliophysics Div., Washington, DC Research 2 Operations Workshop 10/16/2007 at CCMC/GSFC

2. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop Data Product

3. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop Forecasting Matrix  Pairs of Relativistic Electron Parameters (Slope, momentary Flux) Define Locus in Matrix  Color Coding from +1 Hour Proton Intensity  Incorporates All Data from 1996-2002  Tested in 2003-2007 Forecasting

4. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop 2003-2007 24 Proton Events beyond Threshold 10/11 Prompt Events Forecast (91%) with 122 min average warning time 9/13 Delayed Events Forecast (69%) Overall: 79%, 195 min average warning time 13 False Warning Series (10 from Decreases)

5. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop False SEP Warning: Forecast Proton Flux Factor ~100 Above Measured Flux Series of flares/CMEs in March 17/18, 2003 Characteristics: Small, Well- connected, Short-duration Events Cause: System (Matrix) is Calibrated Toward Long-lasting, More Intense Events Impact: Low, Most Events Remain Under Threshold Value, Could Cause Problems if Threshold has to be Lowered X1.5 Flare W39 Peak at 19:05UT SOHO/EIT 03/17/2003

6. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop Forecasting Output Data Description Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5 Year Files; no Header, 1-min Resolution 30-50 MeV Proton Intensity [cm 2 sr s MeV] -1 R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc

7. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop Forecasting Output Data Description Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5 Data Gaps (Status=0) R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc

8. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop Forecasting Output Data Description Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5 Ramp after Data Gap (Status=1, no Electron Increase Parameter) R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc

9. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop Forecasting Output Data Description Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5 Entries with Forecast (Status=1, all Parameters) R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc

10. Greenbelt, Oct. 16, 2007CCMC Research 2 Operations’ Workshop Yearly Proton Flux Files Day of Year Minute (Beg. Interv.) Hour Forec. Prot. Int. 301 12 20 0.27523988 301 12 22 0.26133415 301 12 24 0.16526318 301 12 26 0.55599725 301 12 28 0.75050759 301 12 30 1.5127839 301 12 32 3.1351316 301 12 34 3.5216093 301 12 36 4.1761026 Data Entries: Date (Year in Filename), Proton Flux [cm 2 sr s MeV] -1 Note: Entries in 2-min Resolution flux_p_30_50_YYYY.asc