1. IdMRC THEME Design Information & Knowledge Estimating and Managing Through Life Costs Presenter Linda Newnes L.B.Newnes@bath.ac.uk

2. Design Information & Knowledge 2/22 Agenda Cost Modelling – basic summary of techniques. Aim of TLC at Bath Through Life Cost Modelling at the University of Bath Industrial survey - findings Example projects Future Activities

3. Design Information & Knowledge 3/22 Cost Modelling Approaches – two of the basic techniques Generative Cost Modelling (as design progresses detail improves and cost models e.g. material, processes etc – lots of detail required). Parametric Cost Modelling (using past knowledge to predict cost e.g. weight of material used in aerospace and injection moulding). Within these models uncertainty is important

4. Design Information & Knowledge 4/22 Aim of TLC Modelling at Bath Our focus is on concept design through to disposal. Emphasis on knowledge information and management for cost modelling. Importance of servitisation cost modelling. Companies we work with include e.g. Airbus, GE-A, Supplier Engagement Team at MOD, Renishaw. The overall aim is to provide methods and tools for managing TLC from concept design to in-service/disposal.

5. Design Information & Knowledge 5/22 Through Life Cost Modelling 50-70% Cost in-built at the concept design stage

6. Design Information & Knowledge 6/22 Industrial Survey – Findings (electronics sector) From concept design to in-service – aim of survey to assess approaches used and where. Findings –90% did not use proprietary software (e.g. SEER, PRICE, Relex etc.) –Majority using spreadsheets. –75% said considered risk. –35% considered uncertain parameters in their cost models. –Estimates used for pricing, budgets and negotiation - WIN Business. –All stated their estimates could be improved – mainly to improve their handling of bids. –Major problem limited data/information.

7. Design Information & Knowledge 7/22 Observations from industrialists OEMs now outsourcing design, manufacture and service. Unsure if getting fair price from suppliers. Want to manage the uncertainty in their predictions/models. Want to be able to use cost models to assess supplier bids. Want to undertake effective modelling to decide bid/no bid.

8. Design Information & Knowledge 8/22 Example projects Low Volume Long Life Electronic Products. Using quality improvement techniques at the concept design stage. Uncertainty in cost modelling (next presentation).

9. Design Information & Knowledge 9/22 Low volume long life electronic defence products Joint research with the University of the West of England*. Funded by the IdMRC and IeMRC. Focus is on through-life cost modelling. Industrial partners Supplier Engagement Team (old PFG), MOD and GE-A. Research Team: Dr Linda Newnes, Professor Tony Mileham, Dr Wai Ming (Denny) Cheung, Dr Jon Lanham* and Dr Robert Marsh*.

10. Design Information & Knowledge 10/22 Low Volume Long Life Electronic Products Innovative Low Volume Complex Defence Systems Conventional approaches are unreliable Aim and Objectives Develop effective methods for TLC. Provide a hybrid top- down and bottom-up approach. To support a rough-cut cost estimate. To accept greater detail to improve the accuracy of the cost estimate and enhance decision making at the early stage. e.g. a standby display unit

11. Design Information & Knowledge 11/22 Product Exemplar – Modular Approach Conceptual design Detailed design Upgrade, Replacement and Design refresh Top Down Bottom Up

12. Design Information & Knowledge 12/22 Low volume long life electronic products

13. Design Information & Knowledge 13/22 Rules for Data-Driven TLC

14. Design Information & Knowledge 14/22 Long life low volume electronic defence products Using data from in-service to feedback into design decisions considering e.g. –MTBF –Reliability data –Obsolescence. –Refresh (reasons customer, obsolescence etc). Using actual costs from historical product. Same process used today. Modelling in terms of modules and impact of selections. Completion September 2009.

15. Design Information & Knowledge 15/22 Using quality improvement techniques in cost modelling Aim is to make better use of the information available at the concept design stage. Model cost and impact of specification on cost for informed design decisions – at concept design stage. Using taguchi design of experiments (process capability modelling etc). Pilot study completed. Industrial case study - Renishaw. Completion October 2009. Research team – Dr Linda Newnes, Professor Tony Mileham and Mr Mo Saravi (PhD Student).

16. Design Information & Knowledge 16/22 Matrix to Select the Most Appropriate Concept Normally designers do not consider cost as a factor to select the final concept. aim of this research is to add cost to this matrix to help designers to use cost to select the final concept.

17. Design Information & Knowledge 17/22 Target Specification for Fluid Dispenser – Pilot Study The aim of this project was to design a new fluid dispenser for elderly people. The requirements were translated to engineering terms and a target specification was created.

18. Design Information & Knowledge 18/22 Taguchi Method in Design of Experiment Taguchi method in DOE helps designers to determine parameter values that are least sensitive to noise factors. This technique can be used to improve the confidence level of cost estimates.

19. Design Information & Knowledge 19/22 Design of Experiment Assume four concepts have been created for the new dispenser. Cost model created for each concept. Used Delphi method to prioritise factors and their impact on cost. (A-E) are factors which have the greatest impact on cost of the product.

20. Design Information & Knowledge 20/22 Adding Cost to the Screening Matrix

21. Design Information & Knowledge 21/22 Current Status Fluid dispenser Pilot study Used the Delphi method to identify factors which have the greatest impact on cost of the product. Used DOE to assess cost for different values of the specification to find the optimum solution (the lowest possible cost for each concept) with highest confidence level. Using these result in the Screening Matrix to help designers to consider cost as a factor to select the final concept. - as well as importance of attribute of spec. Industrial case study Completion October 2009.

22. Design Information & Knowledge 22/22 Visit to the IdMRC & Mechanical Engineering Welcome to come and see the research at the University of Bath. Any Questions