1. Low carbon scenarios for the UK Energy White Paper Peter G Taylor Presented at “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios”. 29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen

2. Overview of presentation The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution report on “Energy - the changing climate” The UK Energy White Paper Modelling approach to scenario work Results and conclusions

3. Royal Commission Report - topics covered Scenarios for future energy demand & supply; Environmental implications of such scenarios; Scope for reducing demand; Potential contributions to energy supplies; Assessment of alternative energy technologies; Role of government & markets; Effectiveness of present institutions in framing & delivering energy policies.

4. Royal Commission Report - conclusions on CO 2 objectives Further action required from both developed & developing nations Global climate agreement based on contraction & convergence, with emissions trading. An upper limit on CO 2 concentrations of 550 ppmv, with convergence by 2050. UK CO 2 emissions should reduce by about 60% by 2050 and by 80% by 2100.

5. UK Energy White Paper

6. Goals of new UK energy policy to put the UK on a path to cut the UK’s CO 2 emissions by 60% by about 2050, with real progress by 2020 to maintain the reliability of energy supplies to promote competitive markets in the UK and beyond to ensure that every home is adequately and affordably heated.

7. Aims of low carbon scenario work to develop bottom-up baseline carbon dioxide emissions projections to 2050 to identify potential technical options for carbon dioxide abatement to investigate the cost of reducing carbon emissions

8. Modelling approach Bottom-up technology model Size and timing of changes Spread of action between supply and demand Apply emissions constraints Estimate system costs Sensitivity analyses

9. Overview of model

10. Scenarios Baseline World Markets Global Sustainability Exploring a range of possible futures covering both economic and social change Many sensitivities also examined

11. Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation - Baseline scenario

12. Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation - 60% CO 2 reduction in 2050 (limited energy efficiency)

13. Energy Use in Transport - 60% CO 2 reduction in 2050

14. Annual cost of reducing emissions by 60 % in 2050 £bn/yr

15. Sensitivities to look at costs under different assumptions

16. Main conclusions Diversity of technology options for reducing CO 2 emissions Energy efficiency is central, but not sufficient, to achieve 60 % CO 2 reduction Abatement costs are highly uncertain, but effects on growth are likely to be relatively small Innovation & technical progress are essential Key technology groups: end-use energy efficiency, renewable energy, carbon capture & storage, hydrogen & nuclear power