1. ANOVA: PART I

2. Quick check for clarity  Variable 1  Sex: Male vs Female  Variable 2  Class: Freshman vs Sophomore vs Junior vs Senior  How many levels in Variable 1? Variable 2?  Keep in mind:  ‘Variable’ refers to what is being measured  ‘Level’ refers to how many groups within the variable

3. Last week(s)  Since we’ve returned from break we’ve started analyzing data by comparing groups  More specifically, we’ve compared groups using one sample-, independent-, and paired samples t-tests  Also introduced the concepts of ‘degrees of freedom’ and ‘95% confidence intervals’  Let’s take a moment to summarize when to use the different statistical tests we know…

4. When to use what… # of IV (format) # of DV (format) Examining…Test/Notes 1 (continuous) 1 (continuous) Association 1 (continuous) 1 (continuous) Prediction Multiple 1 (continuous) Prediction

5. # of IV (format) # of DV (format) Examining…Test/Notes 1 (grouping, 2 levels) 1 (continuous) Group differences When one group is a ‘known’ population 1 (grouping, 2 levels) 1 (continuous) Group differences When both groups are independent 1 (grouping, 2 levels) 1 (continuous) Group differences When both groups are dependent (related)

6. Different statistical tests…  All tests are based on calculating a test statistic  Such as a t-score, Pearson’s r, etc…  Using the test statistic, the sample size, and number of groups (degrees of freedom) we estimate a p-value  While all of these tests are useful, they do have limits  Can’t have more than 1 independent variable Except MLR  Can’t have more than 1 dependent variable  The dependent variable must be continuous

7. Where to now?  Moving forward, we’ll eliminate these restrictions:  ANOVA’s compare groups, and can be used with: Multiple IV’s IV’s with any number of levels e.g., we can compare 5 variables with 3 levels each MANOVA’s can be used with multiple DV’s  Chi-Square and Logistic Regression can make use of categorical DV’s (not continuous) e.g., can predict heart attack vs no heart attack

8. Tonight’s topic  Tonight we’ll start discussing ANOVA  Like t-tests:  ANOVA’s are a family of statistical tests used to compare groups  ANalysis Of Variance  There are (basically) 3 types of ANOVA’s  Unlike t-tests, ANOVA’s can be used to compare two or more groups (levels)  More ‘flexibility’ and options than t-tests

9. Side-by-Side Comparisont-testANOVA Can analyze group differences Yes How many levels per variable? Only 22 or more Test Statistic usedt scoreF score/F ratio P-value calculated using… t score, sample size, and number of groups (degrees of freedom) F score, sample size, and number of groups (degrees of freedom)

10. Types of ANOVA’s  1) One-Way ANOVA (basic, univariate)  Can compare one IV with any number of levels i.e., compare mean GRE scores of ISU, IWU, and UI students  2) Factorial ANOVA  Can do 1) above, plus…  Can use multiple IV’s (compare GRE by school and sex)  3) Repeated Measures ANOVA  Can compare several groups (2 or more) in related subjects (paired groups, longitudinal data, etc…)

11. Back to the same dataset  I’m re-using the fitness test and academics dataset.  Dataset has information about FITNESSGRAM fitness tests and ISAT academic test scores in a group of adolescents  Again, I’m interested to know if academic success is related to health/fitness  We’ve seen how we can compare two groups using a t-test  But, if my question becomes more complicated, I’ll need to use ANOVA

12. Example  Is academic success related to physical fitness?  The ISAT test categorizes students into 3 groups:  Exceeding Standard (very good)  Meeting Standard (good enough)  Below Standard (not as good)  If academic success is related to fitness, I should be able to compare the fitness test results between these three groups  Do kids exceeding the standard have the highest ‘fitness’

13. Example  3 Groups: Exceeds vs Meets vs Below Standard  I could use multiple t-tests to compare PACER laps between the three groups, right?  I’d need three: t-test 1: Exceeds vs Meets t-test 2: Exceeds vs Below t-test 2: Meets vs Below  However, this violates a big statistical ‘law’. This approach is frowned upon for one big reason…

14. Family-Wise Error Rate  Using several t-tests instead of 1 ANOVA is not acceptable due to the Family-wise error rate  Also known as Experiment-wise error rate  Mathematically it can be complicated to explain, but let’s think of it like this:  If I set alpha at 0.05, that means I’m willing to accept a 5% risk of Type I error (random sampling error)  So, what happens if I complete 100 statistical tests on the same sample of people? If each of my t-tests had an p-value of 0.05, odds are that I made a type I error 5 times out of 100

15. Even more simplistic explanation  Imagine I develop a pregnancy test and it is 95% accurate  Then, I have 100 women take the test.  I expect 95 tests will be correct – 5 tests will not   The theory is that it works the same way with random sampling error/Type I error.  If I’m 95% confident (alpha = 0.05) that I did not make a Type I error on 1 statistical test…  For every 100 tests, I can expect 5 to have Type I error

16. Family-wise Error  You can actually calculate this for yourself if you want to  1 – Desired Confidence^ Number of Tests = Chance of Type I error  Remember, our ‘desired confidence’ is 95%, or 0.95  If we did 1 t-test, then:  1 – 0.95^ 1 = 0.05 (notice, this is our normal chance of error)  3 t-tests = 1 – 0.95^ 3 = 0.14, 14% chance of error  13 t-tests = 1 – 0.95^ 13 = 0.49, 49% chance of error  The ‘goal’ of the ANOVA is to make multiple statistical comparisons but minimize risk of Family-wise error  By providing only one p-value

17. Back to the example  Instead of using 3 different t-tests (and 3 p-values), we use 1 ANOVA and create 1 p-value  For this example:  1 IV Academic Success, 3 levels: Exceeds, Meets, Below  1 DV PACER Laps (continuous variable)  H O : There is no difference in aerobic fitness between the three groups of academic success  H A : There is a difference in aerobic fitness between the three groups of academic success

19. Coding the IV  Here is how I coded my IV, academic success:

21. Degrees of Freedom  Recall ‘degrees of freedom’ is based on your number of groups and your number of subjects  For t-tests, we always have 2 levels so the df is always easy to calculate # of Subjects - 2  We always want to have the biggest df as possible (just like we want a large sample size) because it means we have a lower chance of Type I error

22. df in ANOVA’s  For ANOVA’s, we can have more than two groups, so pay close attention to your df – you will now have two  Degrees of Freedom 1 = # Groups – 1  Degrees of Freedom 2 = # Subjects – # Groups  Df 1 is the ‘Between Groups’ df  It refers to making comparisons between our groups (ie, comparing Exceeds vs Meets vs Below)  Df 2 is the “Within Groups’ df  It refers to making comparisons between our subjects (ie, the total subjects ‘within’ all the groups)

23. Output from One-Way ANOVA  Here is your ANOVA output:  The sum of squares and mean square (ignore them) are used to calculate the F-ratio  Note df:  ‘Between Groups’ = 2 (3 groups – 1)  ‘Within Groups’ = 242 (245 subjects – 3 groups) N = 245

24. Output from One-Way ANOVA  Here is your ANOVA output:  We use df and the F-ratio to calculate the p-value  P = 0.006, which is less than 0.05, so we can say the test was statistically significant. Reject the null:  H A : There is a difference in aerobic fitness between the three groups of academic success N = 245

25. Output from One-Way ANOVA  P = 0.006, reject the null:  H A : There is a difference in aerobic fitness between the three groups of academic success  Do you have any other questions…? You should…  Notice, the ANOVA just says there is ‘a difference’  We have no idea what groups are different… N = 245

26. Post-Hoc Tests  Our ANOVA indicates that at least one of our three groups is different from another one - but which one?  Exceeds vs Meets  Exceeds vs Below  Meets vs Below  We have to do a follow-up test, a Post-Hoc test, to determine where the significant difference(s) are  Post hoc just means ‘after this’  ‘Mini’-tests used to find differences between groups AFTER a larger statistical test (like ANOVA)

27. WARNING with ANOVA’s  Please recognize:  ANOVA’s only provide you with half of the information  If your ANOVA is statistically significant – you HAVE TO continue to complete post-hoc tests  Run more tests to find the specific group differences  If your ANOVA is not statistically significant – you can STOP  None of the post hoc tests would be statistically significant (because the ANOVA just said they weren’t)

28. Post-Hoc tests  A large group of statistical tests that function like t-tests  They compare ONLY two groups, but they do it multiple times  SPSS aka ‘Pair-wise Comparisons’  They are designed to avoid the family-wise error rate problem because they all ‘adjust’ the p-value based on the number of comparisons you make  i.e., they shrink your alpha level based on number of tests  As post-hoc tests and ANOVAs are strongly linked (you always run them together), SPSS accommodates this

29. Post-Hoc tests  LSD  Sidak  Scheffe  Duncan  They are pretty much all the same (for us)  The only one I want you to use in this class is Tukey  Perhaps the most commonly used post-hoc  Ignore every other post hoc test, unless told otherwise  Dunnett  SNK  Bonferroni  And more…  Several types of post-hoc tests you could use:

30. Post-Hoc tests  Let’s re-run our ANOVA, this time selecting a post- hoc test  If you don’t tell it to, SPSS will not automatically run it

31. NOT Tukey’s-b

32. More options  ‘Options’ can provide you with descriptive statistics

33. Descriptive Stats  The sample sizes, means, SD, and 95% CI for our three groups (dependent variable PACER Laps) individually and in total  Notice, this 95% CI is not for mean differences, but just the group mean

34. Output from One-Way ANOVA  This is the same output for the ANOVA we saw before, I just wanted to remind you of the p-value and decision  P = 0.006, reject the null:  H A : There is a difference in aerobic fitness between the three groups of academic success  Now, the post-hoc tests will tell us what groups

35. Post-Hoc: Tukey’s test, Multiple Comparisons  Now we have mean differences, p-values for each comparison, and 95% CI’s for the mean differences  Which groups are significantly different?  Remember, we are making 3 comparisons – but there are 6 tests results?

36. Post-Hoc: Tukey’s test, Multiple Comparisons  The ‘Exceeds’ group is significantly higher than the ‘Meets’ and ‘Below’ group (p = 0.034 and 0.008)  The ‘Meets’ group is NOT significantly different from the ‘Below’ group (p = 0.405)

37. Results in text  Results of the one-way ANOVA indicated that Pacer Laps were significantly different between Science Score groups (F(2, 242) = 5.17, p = 0.006). Tukey post-hoc comparisons revealed that the Exceeds group completed significantly more PACER laps than the ‘Meets’ group (p = 0.034) and the ‘Below’ group (p = 0.008). However, the ‘Meets’ group was not significantly different than the ‘Below’ group (p = 0.405).  If you wanted, you could also include the mean differences or means with 95% CI’s, but usually this is reported in a table since it can get complicated Questions on One-Way ANOVA?

38. A few more notes on ANOVA  SPSS also provides you with another output called ‘Homogenous Subsets’  This feature is supposed to make it easy to see which groups are significantly different (or rather - which groups are the same, or homogenous):

39. A few more notes on ANOVA  SPSS also provides you with another output called ‘Homogenous Subsets’  The problem with this feature is that it uses a slightly different method to calculate the p-values  It will sometimes give you different results! Ignore this! In our example, this output actually conflicts with what we found from the Tukey pairwise comparisons!

40.  Statistical assumptions for the ANOVA are the same as those for the t-test!  1) Normally distributed data  2) Sample is representative of the population  3) Homogeneity of variance  Unlike the t-test, we will not be using Levene’s test of Homogeneity – please ignore this as well A few more notes on ANOVA

41.  Our example compared 1 variable with 3 levels:  Exceeds, Meets, and Below  We had 3 post-hoc comparisons Exceeds vs Meets; Exceeds vs Below; and Meets vs Below  Keep in mind what happens if you change the variable to have more levels:  For example, NHANES (a national health database) codes race as a 5-level variable: Black, White, Mexican American, Other-Hispanic, Other  Assume we wanted to compare average blood pressure between these groups using a one-way ANOVA… A few more notes on ANOVA

42. Multiple Comparisons Grow Quickly  Post-hoc tests would include several pair-wise comparisons:  Black, White, Mexican American, Other-Hispanic, Other Black v White Black v MexAm Black v Oth-Hisp Black v Other White v MexAm White v Oth-Hisp White v Other MexAm v Oth-Hisp MexAm v Other Oth-Hisp v Other This would be 10 comparisons Be mindful of how you organize your groups and variables, ANOVA’s can quickly get out of hand

43. Upcoming…  In-class activity  Homework:  Cronk complete 6.5  Holcomb Exercises 49, 50, and 53 (on 95% CI’s)  More ANOVA next week  Factorial ANOVA!