1. Air Pollution Risks The Causality Loop of Human Activity and its Consequences Brandon Gustafson

2. Causality Loop Human activity and its associated risks operate in a loop Populations engage in activities to maximize their welfare These activities spur a chain of events that leads to elevated risk which diminishes welfare Recognizing the environmental consequences of human activities, corrective actions are taken to mitigate the negative effects. These corrective actions change the environment itself and the cycle repeats This presentation will detail the steps of the cycle and provide an example Using the example we will estimate ways to reduce the risks Finally we offer some commentary and analysis

3. Causality Loop- Human Side Given Population Participates in activities which increase welfare Goods and Services are in demand to provide for these activities Goods and services require materials

4. Causality Loop- Nature Side Materials flow causes pollution of varying concentrations Pollutants at varying concentrations have varying effects Each effect posses different risks to humans

5. These risks in turn effect our welfare Our welfare being effected causes us to develop policy for action These actions lead to a changes in our activity Causality Loop- Action

6. Quantification of Risk Assign coefficients to each node Able to quantify risk

7. Example: Conceptual and Specific Start with a given population “P” Engages in “a” activities per person Which requires “g” goods and services per activity In turn requires “m” materials per good and service required In California: People like to consume electricity They use it to increase their personal utility or welfare everyday To meet the demands power companies have to generate enough electricity Factories require coal to produce electricity Mercury: Activities that use electricity, batteries or paint contribute to mercury emissions Power Plants use coal that contains mercury Incineration and disposal of garbage emits mercury to the environment

8. Example: Conceptual and Specific The use of materials produces pollution with concentration “c” per mass flow of material The concentration level has effect “e” per concentrate Which produces risk “r” per effect In California: 33.9 Mil. people used 78 TWh of residential electricity in 2000 Pollution effects range from mild to severe Particularly affected are the young, the old, and the asthmatic Brown, Richard E. and Jonathon G. Koomey, “Electricity Use in California: Past Trends and Present Usage Patterns” May 2002 UC-Berkley Hg lbs daily/person CA2.66x10 -10 Mercury: Concentrations accumulate up the food chain Effects depend on exposure Brain and kidney damage risk for adults High neurological risk for fetus’s

9. Risk = a*g*m*c*e*r*P The coefficients are multiplied to find the overall risk This effects welfare and action is taken To reduce risk action can be taken at any node affecting the coefficient associated with it and thus the overall equation Simple 5% reductions at each node lead to an overall decrease of 26.5% 0.95a*0.95g*0.95m*0.95c*0.95e*0.95r*P = 0.735(a*g*m*c*e*r*P) => 26.5% reduction

10. Welfare to Action Governmental agencies set pollution limits Due to regulation mercury mobilization dropped dramatically in the 1990’s Mercury in products was replaced or an alternative product was used Today, largest mercury mobilization comes from coal The shift to low-sulfur coal in the west meant an increase in mercury content

11. Types of Actions To increase welfare and/or reduce risk Reducing the population would reduce risk Reducing activity will decrease risk but may also decrease welfare Use less materials i.e. be more efficient Output lower concentrations of pollutants Output pollutants that have less effect and associated risk

12. Mercury Summary The use of electricity, batteries, paint and some instruments leads to mercury being emitted Industry attempts to make products with lower and lower concentrations of mercury although western coal use has increased mobilization People’s treatment of mercury products leads to either mercury emitted in the air or stockpiled in a dump Once it is emitted nature takes control and humans are left with the effects of their actions These effects depend on exposure but can be fatal and are very harmful to the pregnant mother and unborn child Knowing the risks legislation has been put into effect Restrictions placed on mercury containing resources => Forced industry to use different materials i.e. fungicides Restrictions on mercury in products => Forced to use less concentration of mercury in products i.e. batteries

13. Comments and Analysis Each action is made through a single individual decision However, the consequences to these actions are borne by all !!! This is known as an externality People are not aware of the full environmental and other costs of conducting their action and therein lies the problem To remedy this problem the community can educate people to make them aware of the full cost of their actions Taxation can also be used provided the unseen costs can be quantified Improvement can be made at any node However, it is likely greater factory efficiency will be hard to come by The big improvements need to come from a change in human activity More activity does not always mean greater welfare but it does mean greater risk Moreover, in the long run a shift to a cleaner energy source is a must

14. Summary The Causation Loop of Human Activity is a cycle Human welfare is adjusted up and down by human activity and associated risk The cycle is composed of nodes. Each individual decision at each node effects everyone collectively By making small 5% improvements at each node an overall reduction of 26.5% could be achieved People need to be educated on the true affects of their actions In the short run, improvements will come from a shift in human activity In the long run a cleaner energy source and alternative fuels are essential