1. ICP Vegetation contributions to the LRTAP Convention on Ozone Gina Mills, Harry Harmens, Felicity Hayes, Dave Norris et al. Gothenburg Protocol review, indicators, scenario analysis Impacts on food security Impacts on C sequestration ICP VEGETATION

2. Ozone flux (POD 6 ) Gothenburg Protocol Review: Indicators AOT40SOMO35 Health index – O 3 conc. in air Vegetation index - O 3 conc. in air Vegetation index - modelled O 3 uptake by plants* * See Mills et al., 2011, Atmospheric Environment, 5064 – 5058 for a summary of flux-based critical levels for ozone

3. Gothenburg Protocol review: Ex-Post “Impacts” analysis Risk assessment – forest trees New scenarios (COB, low, low* etc.) Economic impact assessment - for crops  NAT scenario

4. 20002020 - MID2020- MFR Scenario analysis - Broad-leaf forests (e.g. beech, birch)  High risk areas reduced, but medium risk remains Low riskMedium riskHigh risk

5. % change in grid squares with high risk of damage 1 Low risk of damage 2 2020-COB-61.7+20.1 2020-Lowstar-67.1+22.9 2020-MID-69.5+24.1 2020-Highstar-70.9+26.6 2020-MFR-74.7+41.4 1 POD1 values > 30 mmol m -2 2 POD1 values >15 mmol m -2 Scenario analysis - Broad-leaf forests (e.g. beech, birch)

6. 20002020 - MID2020- MFR Scenario analysis - needle-leaf forests (e.g. Norway spruce)  Lower risk than broad leaf forests, but medium risk remains across W Europe Low riskMedium riskHigh risk

7. Field evidence of effects: ICP Vegetation Evidence Report

8. ICP Vegetation – Expert groups for ozone Expert GroupOutputs/Activities 2010 -12 Food Security*Report 2011, paper (s) C sequestration*Report 2012, paper (s) Further flux model development* Workshop TFM 2012 on national and local application O 3 and N interactionReview paper, possible workshop in 2013 Outreach activitiesFunding proposal on food security (India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan & Sri Lanka) * In close collaboration with EMEP MSC-West

9. ICP Vegetation State of Knowledge Report Report to be published in late September  How does O 3 damage crops?  By how much?  Which crops are sensitive?  Effects in N and S Europe  Case studies, including S Asia Pre-publication copies available ICP VEGETATION Costs provided are “best estimates”

10. Sensitive Moderately sensitive Tolerant Peas and beans Wheat soybean Sweet potato Orange Onion Turnip Plum Lettuce Maize Rice Tomato Alfalfa Water melon Olive Field mustard Sugar beet Oilseed rape Potato Barley Grape Strawberry Oat Broccoli Grouping of crops by sensitivity of yield to ozone Red font: Globally important staple food crops

11. Ozone flux (POD 6 ) in 2000Wheat production (2000) Quantifying impacts on wheat production * Assumes adequate soil moisture

12. Economic losses for wheat in Europe 20002020 * Assumes adequate soil moisture available Losses are in million Euro per 50 x 50 km grid square: 0 – 0.010.01 – 0.10.1 – 1.01.0 – 2.52.5 – 5.0> 5

13. 20002020 Loss in value3.2 billion Euro1.96 billion Euro Loss in production26.9 million t16.5 million t Proportion of grid squares exceeding critical level 1 84.8 %82.2% Area at risk of losses 2 24.5 million ha 1 In wheat-growing areas 2 Estimated for each grid square from the mean t/ha per country Effects on wheat in EU27+CH+NO, NAT scenario ICP VEGETATION Largest losses in France, Germany, Bulgaria and UK

14. Economic losses for Tomato in Europe 2000 2020 Economic loss in million Euro per 50 x 50 km grid square: 0 – 0.010.01 – 0.10.1 – 1.01.0 – 2.52.5 – 5.0> 5 * Irrigation assumed, squares with > 3 t production shown

15. 20002020 Loss in value1.02 billion Euro0.63 billion Euro Proportion of grid squares exceeding critical level 77.8 %51.3% Area at risk of losses*0.33 million ha0.23 million ha * Estimated for each grid square from the mean t/ha per country Effects on Tomato in EU27+CH+NO, NAT scenario ICP VEGETATION Largest losses in Italy, Spain and Greece

16. Next report: O 3 and C sequestration, including feedbacks to climate To be published, winter 2011/12  Review of current knowledge  Impacts on carbon storage in grasslands and forests for 2000 and 2040, using climate and O 3 data from EMEP to run the:: (1)DO 3 SE model (2)JULES model (Sitch et al., 2007. Nature) O3O3 Less CO 2 uptake Less C in roots Increased radiative forcing by CO 2 and O 3 ICP VEGETATION

17. 20202000 emissions, 2040 climate 2040 emissions, 2040 climate AOT40 POD1 Very provisional results! * Maps by EMEP using met data from Kjellström et al. (2010) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Tellus 63A, 24-40.

18. ICP Vegetation, ozone: Summary Gothenburg Protocol Review Recent analysis confirms that ozone impacts on vegetation extend into northern Europe, and cover a larger area of Europe than predicted for the human health indicator, SOMO35. The NAT, low, low* and MID scenarios will provide increased protection of vegetation, but losses will still be significant in 2020 e.g.2 billion Euro for wheat and medium risk of damage to broad-leaved trees over central and southern Europe Field evidence of effects Confirming evidence that:O 3 impacts found in ambient air in areas with high fluxes Food security Important staple food crops are ozone sensitive, with economic implications for food supply within the ECE region and concerns for food supply being particularly worrying for developing countries such as in S Asia where ozone concentrations are rising rapidly. Expert groups formed to further improve knowledge exchange Food Security Report published this year C sequestration report for 2011/12 Ecosystem services report for 2012/13 ICP VEGETATION

19. SPARES

20. Comparison of Scenarios: Broad leaf trees