1. Territorial Impact Assessment of Scenarios An expert judgement experiment ESPON Project EU 2050 Meeting of the TPG Milano, 7-8 february, 2013

2. The use of TIA in order to assess territorial impact of 2030 and 2050 Scenarios is considered an essential part of the ET2050 project, in the view of properly defining the 2050 Vision. Aim of the present exercise: Defining quali-quantitative impacts of the 4 Scenarios through expert judgement: - by Impact Fields - by Typologies of Regions Aims of the exercise 2

3. Territorial Impacts have to be calculated for: - the Baseline Scenario, at 2030 and 2050, -the 3 Exploratory Scenarios, at 2030 and 2050 The methodology is similar to the one utilised in the previous Espon Project TEQUILA (Espon 3.2.) and simplified in the ARTS Project. In terms of impact indicators, most of the necessary inputs are provided by the simulation procedures of the quantitative models utilised. Where this proves unfeasible, impacts are built on the basis of experts judgement, group work and discussion inside the TPG. General TIA Methodology 3

4. The assessment process of each Scenario 4

5. Driving Forces help summarising the main hypotheses underlying each Scenario and their Potential Territorial Impact Economic: macroeconomic elements, financial markets, international competition and trade, FDI, technological change Cultural/Political: international solidarity, environmental awareness, inclusiveness, migration Policies: Cohesion policies, rural development Transport policies, urban policies Driving Forces in each Scenario 5

6. 4/20 Impact Fields agreed by the Steering Committee 6 ECONOMYENVIRONMENT GDPLand consumption Employment (manufact.+ services)Emissions/pollutants in the air InnovationCongestion TourismFlood hazard AccessibilityLand erosion SOCIETYTERRITORIAL IDENTITY UnemploymentLandscape fragmentation Disposable income per capitaCreativity Road accidentsCultural heritage Risk of povertyNatural heritage Net migrationMulticulturality

7. Impact fields for the expert experiment 7 Economy GDPQuantitative: MASST+SASI Employment (manufacturing + services)Quantitative: MASST+SASI InnovationQuantitative: MASST TourismQualitative AccessibilityQuantitative: MCRIT+SASI Society UnemploymentQuantitative: MASST Disposable income per capitaQuantitative: MASST Road accidentsQuantitative: MCRIT Risk of povertyQualitative Net migrationQuantitative: MASST Environment Land consumptionQualitative (quantitative from NL) Emissions/pollutants in airQuantitative: MCRIT CongestionQuantitative: MCRIT Flood hazardQualitative Land erosionQualitative Territorial identity Landscape fragmentationQuantitative: MCRIT + POLI CreativityQualitative (quantitative from POLI) Cultural heritageQualitative (quantitative from POLI) Natural heritageQualitative Multi-culturalityQualitative

8. Impact by driving forces on fields 8 Driving forces EconomicCultural/PoliticalPolicies Macro-economy International solidarity Cohesion Transpor t Financial markets Environmental awareness Rural developme nt Urban International competition Inclusiveness FDI/trade Technological change Impact fields Sign of impact Economy Tourism Positive Society Risk of poverty Negative Environment Land consumption Negative Flood hazard Negative Land erosion Negative Territorial Identity Creativity Positive Cultural heritage Positive Natural heritage Positive Multi-culturality (urban) Positive Multi-culturality (Rural) Negative

9. Impact by driving forces on typologies of regions 9 Driving forces EconomicCultural/PoliticalPolicies Macro-economyInternational solidarityCohesionTransport Financial markets Environmental awareness Rural development Urban International competition Inclusiveness FDI/trade Technological change Typologies of regions Megas Urban Rural Eastern Northern Central Southern Coastal Mountain Peripheral Advanced Medium GDP/PC Lagging Industrial Service Tourist Others

10. a. Impacts go from 4 to 0 (very high, hi, moderate, low, nil) b. Impact signs are already indicated: don’t worry about! c. Fill first the Driving Force/Impact Field matrix, then the DrivingForce/Regions matrix d. Suggestion: start by driving force: fill the first column for the Baseline Scenario, then fill the same column in the other scenarios. These impacts have to be fully and rationally comparable! e. In each cell, put 2 scores: referring to 2030 and 2050 Instructions 10

11. Many thanks indeed for your collaboration !! THANKS 11