1. Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Health Donald F. Boesch Climate Change Health Summit Washington, DC September 20, 2015

2. MVN RSM Program A Global Warming Pause?

3. MVN RSM Program 2015 Virtually Certain Temperature Record

4. MVN RSM Program Ocean Heating Has Been Steady

5. MVN RSM Program Most of the Heat Stored in Ocean

6. MVN RSM Program How Much Will it Warm? www.ipcc.ch Global average surface temperature It mainly depends on how much greenhouse gases we emit. Unrestrained growth in emissions RCP8.5 Rapid emissions reductions RCP2.6 7.2°F 3.6°F

7. MVN RSM Program Changes Will Vary Greatly RCP8.5 Scenario for 2081-2100 Annual mean surface temperature [Chesapeake region warms more than global average, up to 8°F!] Average percent change in annual mean precipitation [~10% increase in Chesapeake region, mainly winter-spring] www.ipcc.ch

8. MVN RSM Program A Warmer Chesapeake Bay

9. MVN RSM Program Extensive Effects of Ocean Warming Anomalously warm surface water in NE Pacific in 2015 Drought in California Heat waves in NW US Effects on salmon stocks Harmful algal blooms Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño

10. MVN RSM Program Sea Level Had Been Stable 2000 Years Kemp et al. 2011. Proc. National Acad. Sci 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 meters Tide gauges Paleo-reconstruction Less than 1 foot in 2,000 years

11. MVN RSM Program Recent Sea-Level Rise sealevel.colorado.edu Since 1992 sea level rising more than twice as fast as for the 20 th century as a whole.

12. MVN RSM Program Factors That Influence Sea-Level Change

13. MVN RSM Program How Much Will the Seas Rise? Horton et al. 2013 Quaternary Science Reviews 84:1 Unrestrained emissions Rapid reductions

14. MVN RSM Program Effects of Polar Ice Sheet Melting West Antarctica Greenland Expected change in sea level for a given loss of ice mass from Greenland and Antarctica. Paradoxically, sea-level rise is greatest farthest from the source.

15. MVN RSM Program Slowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea Level Based on work of Tal Ezer and colleagues, Old Dominion University J. Geophysical Research 118:685 Gulf Stream strength Tide gauge level trends

16. MVN RSM Program Vertical Land Motion--Glaciation Late Interglacial Land surfaces that were depressed by thick ice masses are now rising. Land surfaces that bulged upward because of these ice masses are now sinking.

17. MVN RSM Program How Much Will Sea Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay? climatechange.maryland.gov

18. MVN RSM Program Consequences of Sea-Level Rise Light blue Light blue: salt marshes Greens Greens: < 2 m, suscept- ible to innundation Orange-yellow Orange-yellow: 2-4 m, susceptible to storm surge Greater Bay volume, ocean influence

19. MVN RSM Program Sea-level Rise & Human Catastrophe

20. MVN RSM Program Climate Change & Tropical Cyclones Hurricane Katrina intensified as a result of warm surface waters M Tropical cyclones might actually become less frequent, but more powerful.

21. MVN RSM Program Sea-level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100 Historic (proxies & tide gauges) 100 200 300 400 0 1000 1500 2000 2300 Year Sea-level change (cm above 2000) 21 st century Adapted from Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867. RCP4.5 Stabilization without overshoot RCP3-PD Peak and decline

22. MVN RSM Program Harmful Algal Blooms Neurotoxic Paralytic Amnesic Diarrhetic

23. MVN RSM Program Coastal Ocean & Infectious Disease Warmer temperatures Enriched waters Altered ecosystems Open to invasions

24. MVN RSM Program Increase in Atmospheric CO 2 Starting point 280 ppm

25. MVN RSM Program Ocean Acidification

26. MVN RSM Program Climate Change Education K-12 Education (integrated with Next-Generation Science Standards, and Environmental Literacy Requirements) Higher Education (sustainability literacy, teacher preparation, pipeline) Informal Education (museums, aquaria, outdoor centers, media) www.madeclear.org/ Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research

27. Questions or Comments? boesch@umces.edu www.umces.edu/people/president