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Eric Wailes University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture Dept of Agr. Econ. & Agribus. for SAEA Annual Meeting, Mobile, AL February 5, 2007 Impacts.

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Presentation on theme: "Eric Wailes University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture Dept of Agr. Econ. & Agribus. for SAEA Annual Meeting, Mobile, AL February 5, 2007 Impacts."— Presentation transcript:

1 Eric Wailes University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture Dept of Agr. Econ. & Agribus. for SAEA Annual Meeting, Mobile, AL February 5, 2007 Impacts of Trade Sanctions Case of U.S. Rice

2 U.S. Rice Trade and Sanctions Approximately 40%-50% of U.S. rice is exported Impact of Sanctions on Cuba, Iran, and Iraq Immediate and long term effects Impacts on Importers Impacts on United States

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6 Sanctions on Cuba Pre-1960, #1 export market for the U.S. 30% share of U.S. exports ~100% of Cuban imports U.S. trade resumed in 2000 but remains subject to payment restrictions Now: A 700 thousand metric ton market: Commercial value of market = $280 M ~20% of Cuban imports (Vietnam, Thai) ~5% share of U.S. long grain exports

7 Sanctions on Iran 1970s, #1 export market for the U.S. 24% share of U.S. exports 75 - 100% of Iran’s imports U.S. trade resumed in early 1990s capturing ~20% share of Iran’s market but closed since 1994 Now: A 900 thousand metric ton market: Commercial value of market = $360 M U.S.: ~0% of Iran’s imports (Vietnam, Thai, Pakistan)

8 Sanctions on Iraq 1980s, #1 export market for the U.S. 25% share of U.S. exports 90 - 100% of Iraq’s imports U.S. trade resumed in early 2004 capturing ~25% share of Iraq’s market Now: A 1.2 million metric ton market: Commercial value of market = $480 M U.S.: ~25% of Iran’s imports (Vietnam, Thai, Pakistan, India)

9 Conclusions Sanctions have hit sequentially #1 U.S. rice markets – Cuba, Iran and then Iraq 3 markets now: 2.8 million metric tons $ 1.1 billion in sales Equal to total U.S. long grain exports Cuba + Iraq account for 15% of U.S. exports

10 Summary – world without sanctions U.S. would be competitive to capture Cuban market: additional 450 thousand MT, $180 million Impact on Cuba – higher quality rice Not likely to gain more of Iraq market Could gain up to 30% or Iran’s market Additional 300 thousand MT, $120 million Cost to US rice sector from sanctions: $400 million: under utilized production & milling Effect of sanctions: high costs on U.S. rice sector and small costs on importers

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