1. Amanda Graning Amy Henry Mike Bettwy Carol Christenson Dan Miller Dean Melde Peter Parke Edward Flenz Greg Frosig Tom Lonka Kevin Donofrio Declan Cannon WFO Duluth, Minnesota

3. Vision: "Keeping America SAFER by understanding and integrating societal impacts into NWS products and services; to enhance public awareness and readiness associated with weather, water, and climate." Societal Applications For Enhanced Readiness

4. My office is full of deadbeats Assessing the Threat of Winter Events I have a few ideas, but… Couldn’t get off ground No one was interested …stuck in their ways How do I get people motivated?

5. Not Perfect Not a Human Behavior Expert Personal Experiences

6. Assessing the Threat of Winter Events

7. Weather Forecasting Office Duluth, MN There are situations where the physical science can be perfect, but its utility is greatly reduced where there is not adequate attention to the societal aspects Motivation An effort to create a historical reference for use in assessing the threat of snowfall cases that may or may not fall into the National Weather Service (NWS) defined criteria for winter weather advisories or warnings Goal

8.  Develop a "checklist" of factors that are given values  Weather and non-weather  Values are added to result in a Danger Degree (threat level) for that event  Theory: Higher the score, greater the potential impact

9.  Specific Location  Duluth, MN  International Falls, MN  Event Criteria  Snowfall of >2”  Looked at Daily Climate Report (LCDs)  Weather & Societal Factors  METARs  Sum Each Section

10. MEA Weekend  Start Tribune,. Bob Von Sternberg “At Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, this long weekend [ MEA ] is as busy, or busier, than Thanksgiving” HS State Tournament Data  MN State High School League

11. 2006 October 11-13th DLH 3 2 6 5 14 First >2 of winter SN began 400 am Mixed Phases Gusts 30-35 kt for 24 hrs Began: 36 F & Rain SN ended for 4 hrs - then continued. Snow Total = 3.5” 2.3” in 24 hr period.

12.  Caution! Assigning Values to Event Not Intended to Categorize Storms (like Hurricanes)  A Tool for Addition Perspective  May miss “Big Picture”  Adapted to other Areas & Hazards

13. 91% 60%

17. Several Warnings with Danger Degree Values < 5  Low potential Impact Events with Danger Degree > 14 with No Headline  High Potential Impact

19. Emailed the Staff

20. Voluntary

21. Clear Vision

22. Flexible

23. Trust

24.  Communication Flexible Several Meetings Clear Expectations Updates Intranet page "There's nothing more demoralizing than a leader who can't clearly articulate why we're doing what we're doing.“ --James Kouzes and Barry Posner

25. Amanda Graning Amy Henry Mike Bettwy Carol Christenson Dan Miller Dean Melde Peter Parke Ed Flenz Greg Frosig Tom Lonka Kevin Donofrio Declan Cannon

26. Amanda.Graning@noaa.gov