1. Eocene Climate Modelling, and the causes of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 1)Introduction to the PETM 2)Modelling the PETM 3)Modelling the Eocene – a model intercomparison and model-data comparison 4)Sensitivity studies

2. Zachos et al, Nature, 2001 Orientation…

4. Zachos et al, Science, 2005

5. Dunkley Jones et al, 2010

6. Nunes and Norris, 2006

7. Bice and Marotzke, 2004

8. Topography Veg Eocene: (1) boundary conditions Palaeogeography + CO2 Zachos et al, Nature, 2008

9. Winguth et al, 2010

11. Lunt et al, Geology, 2010 Heinemann et al, Climate of the Past, 2009 Winguth et al, Journal of Climate, 2010 Huber et al, PPP, 2006 Roberts et al, EPSL, 2009 Panchuk et al, Geology, 2008

12. Eocene: (2) MIP results

14. 280 560 1120 2240 4480 ppmv

15. What are the reasons for the differences…? Heinemann et al, 2009

16. Eocene FAMOUS Boundary conditions: 2 x CO 2 0.4% decrease in solar constant palaeogeography uniform vegetation/soil everything else modern Initialised from previous simulation and then ran for 1000 years

17. Control climate (after 1000 years)

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19. Perform 100 simulations for the Eocene, varying some key model parameters. Do any of these simulations result in a good (i.e. warm pole) simulation? –What parameters most influence the warm climates? –Do any of the warm pole models correspond to good simulations of the modern too? First step towards including Eocene in probabilistic predictions of climate sensitivity?

20. Methodology Select 10 poorly defined parameters Select reasonable possible ranges for each parameter Vary them together (using a latin-hypercube sampling method) Clouds: Threshold of relative humidity for cloud formation (RHcrit) Precipitation ice fall out speed (VF1) Conversion rate of cloud liquid water droplets to precipitation (CT) Threshold value of cloud liquid water for formation of precip. (CW) Convection : Convective roughness length over the sea (Z0FSEA) Gravity wave parameters (WAVE) Sea ice low albedo (ALPHAM) Diffusion in ocean and atmosphere Range of values from literature (Murphy et al. 2004)

21. Perturbed Physics Simulations 100 simulations performed, each simulation set for 1000 years. –59 simulations failed within 100 years! –4 further simulations failed to complete 1000 years. –Hence only 37 simulations completed to 1000 years. Of these, 19 failed to complete 4000 years But 18 have completed 10,000 years

22. Range of Global Mean Temperatures FAMOUS Control Good present day models give: 3 models 24-26C 2 models 26-28C 2 models 31-34C

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25. Sensitivity to boundary condition uncertainties: Effects of Open Arctic: Change in climate due to opening Arctic connections to rest of ocean DJF JJAANN

26. Sensitivity to Orbital Parameters Change in surface air temperature due to orbital parameter changes Orbital parameters similar to 9kyr BPObliquity = 25.5 o (c.f. 23.5 o )