1. Past DiscoveryProduction 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1930195019701990201020302050 Gb Oil discovery versus production: state of play

2. Future DiscoveryPast DiscoveryProduction 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1930195019701990201020302050 Gb Early Toppers’ view Oil discovery versus production: the future Late Toppers’ view …and society’s expectation

3. Regular oil topping pointOil and gas topping point Source: ASPO Future oil and gas production from all sources

4. 19651970197519801985199019952000 Source: CGES First energy crisis 1973 Second energy crisis 1979 to 1981 $ barrel Small peaks followed by recessions Past oil price peaks have all involved economic trauma 2005

5. Source: CGES First energy crisis 1973 Second energy crisis 1979 to 1981 19651970197519801985199019952000 $ barrel Small peaks followed by recessions Panic. Fear of global depression. But then… oil from new provinces oil releases from stockpiles Saudi swing production all combined to cause a glut …and prolonged low prices & poor returns, causing years of chronic underinvestment in oil and gas infrastructure What happened last time?

6. 19651970197519801985199019952000 Source: CGES First energy crisis 1973 Second energy crisis 1979 to 1981 $ barrel “Oil price threat to world economy” Headline, 5.8.04 Small peaks followed by recessions 1981 escape clauses do not apply now

7. 19651970197519801985199019952000 Source: CGES First energy crisis 1973 Second energy crisis 1979 to 1981 $ barrel Small peaks followed by recessions The great oversight 20052010 Topping point ?

8. CO 2 Concentration (ppmv) Years before present Atmospheric CO2 concentration parts per million o C difference w.r.t. end of the 19 th Century Global average near surface temperature o C 1861 - 2003 CO 2 and fossil fuel use 1861 -2100

9. Departures o C from the 1961 – 1990 avge. Surface temperatures 1000 – 2100 AD Average temperatures from a range of IPCC energy scenarios short of deep cuts in fossil fuel use Threshold of severe danger: 2 o C above pre-industrial average temperature (EU target not to exceed)