1. Young Expert‘s Workshop

2. Berlin: Hertie School of Governance

3. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Berlin: Hertie School of Governance

4. Migration Birth Death NGO ? Population Structure Demography

5. Fertility Behavior in Russia and Germany

6. Relevance

8. Fall of Berlin Wall Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1989 1990 1991 Legal Unification Relevance “Jetzt wächst zusammen, was zusammengehört.” Willy Brandt, 10. Nov. 1989

9. Constitutional „Right to Work“ „Labor Market Integration“ of Women Secularization Relevance

10. Fertility Trends

11. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980199020002010 Total Fertility Rate West Germany

12. Fertility Trends 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980199020002010 Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany

13. Fertility Trends 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980199020002010 Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany

14. Monthly Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93 + 9 months Fall of Berlin Wall East Germany West Germany Fertility Trends

15. Monthly Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93 + 9 months Fall of Berlin Wall East Germany West Germany Fertility Trends

16. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980199020002010 Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany

17. Fertility Trends 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980199020002010 Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany

18. Fertility Trends 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980199020002010 Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany Replacement Level

19. Fertility Trends Life Expectancy Men Russia East Germany West Germany Life Expectancy Women Russia East Germany West Germany Source: HMD

20. Fertility Trends Our population is declining … we need to raise the birth rate! (Putin 2006) The challenge of family policies is to facilitate family formation. (Deutscher Bundestag, 2006)

21. Fertility Trends Parental leave benefit reform Expansion of public day care Cash benefits for higher order births

22. Fertility Trends 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980199020002010 Total Fertility Rate Russia East Germany

23. Fertility Trends 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980199020002010 Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany

24. Data

25. Data: Generations and Gender Survey

26. Name of Survey:Generations and Gender Survey Interview mode:Face-to-face Sample:Ages 18-79 Sample Size:10,000 per country Design:Panel Study (in several countries, incl. Russia) Data: Generations and Gender Survey

27. Wave 1Wave 2Wave 3 2005 2007 2011 Name of Survey:Generations and Gender Survey Interview mode:Face-to-face Sample:Ages 18-79 Sample Size:10,000 per country Design:Panel Study (in several countries, incl. Russia) Data: Generations and Gender Survey

28. Family Structures

29. A Child Needs a Home with Mother and Father to Grow Up Happily Source: GGS, weigthed estimates 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Agree Undecided Disagree Family Structures

30. West Germany East Germany Russian Federation Married80%69%67% Divorced8% 17% Single12%22%10% Widowed1% 6% Total100% Marital Status of Mothers Note: The sample includes women who live with a child age 16 or younger in same household. Source: GGS – first wave Family Structures

31. West Germany East Germany Russian Federation Full-time22%43%64% Part-time35%23%3% Unemployed5%23%7% Other37%12%26% Total100% Employment Status of Mothers Note: The sample includes women who live with a child age 16 or younger in same household. Source: GGS, first wave Family Structures

32. Fertility Dynamics by Parity

33. Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1820222426283032343638404244 Cohort 1950-59 Cohort 1960-69 Cohort 1970-79 East Germany First Birth

34. Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) Cohort 1950-59 Cohort 1960-69 Cohort 1970-79 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1820222426283032343638404244 Age of Woman Russia First Birth

35. Cohort 1970-79 Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) West Germany East Germany Russia 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1820222426283032343638404244 Age of Woman Source: GGS – First wave Birth Survey 2006 First Birth

36. Second Birth

37. Cohort 1960-69 Share of Two-Child Mothers by Age of First Child (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) Source: GGS – First wave Birth Survey 2006 Russia East Gemany West Germany 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0246810 Age of First Child Second Birth

38. Realization of Second Birth Intentions

39. 2005 Realization of Birth Intentions Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years?

40. 2005 2007 Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized?

41. Intention to Have Second Child Within Next 3 Years, Cohorts 1970-85 Source: GGS, weigthed estimates No Do not know Yes Has 2 children 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Realization of Birth Intentions

42. Intention to Have Second Child Within Next 3 Years, Cohorts 1970-85 Source: GGS, weigthed estimates No Do not know Yes Has 2 children 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Realization of Birth Intentions

43. 2005 2007 Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized? Economic worries?

44. Financial Situation (Household Makes Ends Meet) Source: GGS, weigthed estimates 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Easy Somewhat difficult Difficult Realization of Birth Intentions

46. ? 2005 2007 Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized? Economic worries?

47. Data: The German Family Panel

48. 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Name of Survey:German Family Panel Interview Mode:Face-to-face, CAPI & CASI Sample:Birth cohorts 1971-73, 1981-83, 1991-93 Sample Size:13,000 (anchor) respondents Type of Survey:Multi-Actor Panel Study Data: German Family Panel

49. Multi-Actor Anchor Data: German Family Panel

50. Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Data: German Family Panel

51. Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Children of Anchor FatherMother Data: German Family Panel

52. Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Children of Anchor FatherMother Data: German Family Panel 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

53. Many thanks for your attention!

54. Fertility Desires IDYEAR IDEAL Anchor #120090 #120110 #120120 #120132 #120142

55. Fertility Desires IDYEAR IDEAL Anchor IDEAL Partner #120090no partner #120110no partner #1201202 #1201322 #1201422

56. Source: GGS, weigthed estimates Realization of Birth Intentions Note: Unlike Table 1, this figure contains all respondents, irrespective of whether they were partnered in wave1. Positive indicates that the respondent had positive intentions to have a(nother) child within the next three years in wave 1. Uncertain & positive long term indicates that the respondent was uncertain to have a(nother) child within the next three years. but in general plans to have a(nother ) child. Negative & positive long term indicates that the respondent did not want a(nother) child within the next three years in wave 1. but in general plans to have a(nother ) child. Negative & negative long term indicates that the respondent did not want a(nother) child within the next three years and generally does not want any (further) children. Source: Russian GGS 1 and 2 waves; own calculations. Realization of Birth Intentions between 2005 and 2007, Russia