1. Population Growth

2.  What does Texas look like today?  What are the implications of migration?  What does this mean for Texas?

3. Total Population Growth  1970 -- 11.2 million  1990 -- 17 million  1994 -- 18.4 million  2000 -- 20.3 million

4. Recent Growth (2000)  Texas -- grew by 380,975  Immigrants -- 35.4% (Mexico and Latin America)

5. Murdock Report 1996  Reasons: –Increase in size of population –demand for public programs –budgetary implications

6. Other Reasons  California Proposition 187  anti-immigration sentiment  use of public funds for some programs: –education –health care  Federal government to pick-up tab  Guest worker program

7. Net Migration  Cohort component: –Anglos (non-Hispanic whites) –Blacks (non-Hispanic Blacks) –Hispanics of all races –others (all others not Hispanic)  Movement into and out of state from other nations and states

8.  Assumes current migration rate  Program costs (1990 - 1995): –labor force rates –incarceration rates –householder rates –Welfare user rates

9. Immigration  Key determinants of growth –immigrants from other states in U.S. –immigrants from other nations –their descendents

10. Increased Diversity  Anglo -- increase by 20.4%  Black -- increase by 62 %  Hispanic -- increase by 257.6 percent  other == 648.4 %

11. Results  Reduces relative growth rate of labor force due to an aging population  Lowers the educational attainment and skill level of labor force  reduces wage and salary level of labor force

12. Policy Implications  Increased growth in human services, job training, and educational programs for older persons and minority groups

13.  Lower socioeconomic resources due to more minority households (poorer)  faster projected growth of minority populations

14.  Reduces the overall socioeconomic welfare of state –decreased consumer expenditures –decreased tax revenues

15.  Study resulted in Closing the Gap initiatives for Texas universities –Minority students –First-generation students

16.  Types of immigrants: –refugees –temporary labor migrants –without documents –all other kinds of legal immigrants

17. Eligibility for Public Services  Refugees eligible upon arrival  permanent resident aliens not immediately eligible  illegal migrants -- lowest probability of seeking public assistance due to fear to deportation