1. 1 SCEC Broadband Platform Development Using USC HPCC Philip Maechling (maechlin@usc.edu) 12 Nov 2012

2. Presentation Topics 1.Studying Earthquakes In California 2.Using Computer Simulations to Study Earthquakes 3.Establishing the Value of Seismic Forecasts 4.SCEC Broadband Platform Development

3. Southern California in 1857 The most recent ‘ big one ’ in southern California

4. Southern California in 2012 Over 23 million people Fastest growing areas are close to the San Andreas

5. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center M8 Science Impact For the purposes of this Act, an active fault is defined by the State Mining and Geology Board as one which has “had surface displacement within Holocene time (about the last 11,000 years)” (see Appendix B, Section 3601).

6. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center M8 Science Impact For the purposes of this Act, an active fault is defined by the State Mining and Geology Board as one which has “had surface displacement within Holocene time (about the last 11,000 years)” (see Appendix B, Section 3601).

7. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center M8 Science Impact Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault- Zoning Act Rupture Hazard Zones near Long Beach, CA.

8. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center M8 Science Impact Fault-Rupture Hazard Zones near Long Beach, CA.

9. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center M8 Science Impact Fault-Rupture Hazard Zones near Long Beach, CA.

10. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center M8 Science Impact Fault-Rupture Hazard Zones near Long Beach, CA.

11. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center M8 Science Impact Fault-Rupture Hazard Zones near Long Beach, CA. I-405 and Long Beach Airport Signal Hill Town Center Shopping Center Long Beach City College Signal Hill Oil Storage Facility Community Hospital of Long Beach Long Beach State University Stadium

12. Presentation Topics 1.Studying Earthquakes In California 2.Using Computer Simulations to Study Earthquakes 3.Establishing the Value of Seismic Forecasts 4.SCEC Broadband Platform Development

13. Characteristics of Scientific Simulations The reasons seismologists and earthquake engineers want to make better use of simulations are shared with other domains.

15. Types of Seismic Hazard Forecasts with Commercial or Governmental Market SCEC research is improving each forecast type. Seismic Hazard Forecast TypesForecast Users Earthquake Early Warning ForecastPublic, Press, City, State, National Governments Scenario Earthquake Seismograms Forecasts Engineering Companies, Insurance Companies, State, National Governments Short-term earthquake ForecastsPublic, Press, State and National Governments Long-term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Forecasts Engineering Companies, Building Code Developers, Insurance companies, State and National Governments,

16. Presentation Topics 1.Studying Earthquakes In California 2.Using Computer Simulations to Study Earthquakes 3.Establishing the Value of Seismic Forecasts 4.SCEC Broadband Platform Development

17. 17 Example Ground Motion Simulation Objectives Goal: Characterize the seismic vulnerability of nuclear power plants in the United States. Approach: Use computer simulations to determine how strong ground motions might affect existing structures.

18. 18 Topics

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21. 21 Topics

22. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Introduction Validation = comparison against observations vs. Verification = comparison against theoretical predictions SCEC has established a Technical Activity Group (TAG) focused on GMSV in order to develop and implement testing/rating methodologies via collaboration between ground motion modelers and engineering users. “SCEC Technical Activity Group on Ground Motion Simulation Validation,” N. Luco, USGS March 7, 2012 Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform Meeting

23. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Initial Recommendations “SCEC Technical Activity Group on Ground Motion Simulation Validation,” N. Luco, USGS March 7, 2012 Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform Meeting (2) (1)(4)(3) V s Input Rock Att. G/G Max D  Output (From C. Goulet)(From F. Zareian)

24. Presentation Topics 1.Studying Earthquakes In California 2.Using Computer Simulations to Study Earthquakes 3.Establishing the Value of Seismic Forecasts 4.SCEC Broadband Platform Development

25. 25 Broadband Platform Usage Modes SCEC Broadband Platform Capabilities: Use Case 1: Calculate Historical Seismograms –User selects a validation event and the platform calculates broadband synthetic seismograms at selected locations and compares synthetic seismograms to observed data. Use Case 2: Calculate Scenario Seismograms - User defines parameters for a scenario earthquake, selects modules to use, and calculates broadband seismograms for the event.

26. 26 Broadband Platform Development History  2006 – Scripted and Pegasus Version Developed  2008 – Python Version Developed (First Hanging Wall Problem)  2010 – First Supported Software Release of Platform  2011 – Current Version Released (v11.2.2) (Second Hanging Wall Problem)  2012 – Planning next Broadband Platform version

27. 27 Broadband Platform Development Support PGE and SCE funding for 2012-2013 –Improve scalability by prepare code to run on Cluster –Add new validation event data sets –Add new validation processing and GOF –Run large scale simulations –Add new modules SCEC NSF-SI2 project funding of ~2.5M over three years. –Prepare open-source scientific software distribution –Use modern software engineering development techniques –Add new modules –Increase scalability of scientific software

28. 28 Broadband Platform Users UCI ETH Stanford PEER UCB University of Pavia URS Model Developer groups UCSB, SDSU, USGS

29. 29 Broadband Platform Overview Broadband Platform Software Distributions: Source Codes and Input Config Files : 2G (increases as platform runs) Data Files (Greens Functions) : 11G (static input files)

31. 31 Increase Scale of Broadband Platform We have developed a new version of SCEC Broadband platform configured to run on SCEC server and on USC Cluster, so that it is capable of running large ensembles of simulations.

32. Rupture Generation (optional) Converts user-provided simple earthquake description into SRF (extended rupture description) file Two implementations Optional module (can supply SRF) 32 MAGNITUDE = 6.67 FAULT_LENGTH = 20.01 DLEN = 0.2 FAULT_WIDTH = 25.01 DWID = 0.2 DEPTH_TO_TOP = 5.0 STRIKE = 122 RAKE = 90 DIP = 40 LAT_TOP_CENTER = 34.344 LON_TOP_CENTER = -118.515 HYPO_ALONG_STK = 6.0 HYPO_DOWN_DIP = 19.4 DT = 0.01 SEED = 3092096 Source DescriptionRupture with slip

33. Data Products 33 SRF Plots Velocity and acceleration seismograms Station and fault trace maps

34. Comparison Data Products 34 Spectral response comparison Seismogram comparison Goodness-of-fit

35. Evaluation Criteria Qualitative evaluation of velocity time series and Husid plot based on Arias intensity

36. Spectral Acceleration Goodness of Fit R i = ln(O i /S i ) Bias = (1/N) S R i s = [(1/N) S (R i – Bias) 2 ] 1/2

37. Supported Broadband Platform Software Release 37

38. Questions? 38