1. www.hsl. gov.uk An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive www.hsl. gov.uk An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Scanning the Horizon Small Business Trade Association Forum Roger Brentnall

2. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Agenda Horizon Scanning Background Socioeconomic Trends –Shape of Industry –Demography –Working Patterns Technology Snippets Scenarios for 2017 http://www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm

3. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Scanning the Horizon What about the future?

4. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Horizon Scanning …the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends. Definition of Chief Scientific Advisers Committee, September 2004 Looking Ahead – Looking Across

5. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Horizon Scanning To: inform strategic thinking, planning and target setting; identify possible changes of direction and emphasis and assist in formulation and delivery of HSEs strategic programmes. By: systematically anticipating, identifying and preparing for new or changing risks in workplaces and work activities, which may appear on a 3-10 year horizon.

6. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Key Drivers Science and technology The workplace and working practices Socio-economic trends that affect the labour market Trends in public attitudes towards risk The UK political agenda The European Union International developments (globalisation)

7. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Hot Topics CO 2 Capture & Storage Complex Working Practices Cyber Security Demographics Flexible Working Patterns Future of Keyboards Gene Therapy Human Performance Enhancement Hydrogen Economy Nanotechnology New & Emerging Pests Obesity Pervasive Computing Rapid Manufacturing Recycling Robotics Solvents Directive Sustainability TeraHertz Technology

8. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive SocioeconomicTrends

9. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Topics Shape of Industry –Growth in SMEs –Sectoral Trends Demography –An Ageing Workforce –Impact of Migrant Workers Changing Working Patterns –Increasing Flexibility/Precarious Working

10. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Growth in SMEs Of the 4.3 Million Businesses in the UK 99% Have <50 Employees Number of SMEs is Growing at Around 50,000 p.a. –Business Services, Leisure, Catering, Construction Challenges for HSE –Effective Communication –H&S Management –Appropriateness of Guidance

11. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Sectoral Trends Source: BERR Enterprise Directorate

12. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive An Ageing Workforce Population Trends –By the Late 2020s 40% of Population Will be Over 50 and 28% of Population Will be Over 60 Staying in Employment –Those Who Enjoy Work & Wish to Carry on vs. Those Who Will be Forced to Continue for Economic Reasons Workplace Trends –Employment Rate for Workers Over 50 has Increased by 8% Since 1993 –Projected that by 2020 there will be 775,000 People Economically Active Over 65 (33% Increase from 2005)

13. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Age-Related Performance No Evidence for Deterioration in Most Types of Work at Least up to Age 70 (DTI, 2003) Some Functions such as Knowledge & Reasoning May Improve with Age (Ilmarien, 2001; Griffiths, 1997) Detection, Recall & Recognition Tasks Tend to Become Less Reliable with Age (Bell, 2005) Wide Individual Differences in Changes in Cognitive Ability with Age (Wilson, 2002) –Other Factors Likely to be Involved (Diet, Exercise etc.)

14. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Migrant Workers Recent Influx from Accession 8 Countries –Poland Heads Top 5 Sources of Migrant Workers: –Over 80% Under 34 Years of Age –Broader Geographical Spread –Range of Occupations but Tending to be Low Paid Source: DWP NI Data

15. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Migrant Workers Economic and Other Benefits Recognised Research Report RR502 –No Evidence to Suggest Higher Risk per se –Migrants More Likely to Work in Sectors with H&S Concerns Health & Safety Implications –Language Skills –Lack of Familiarity with Industry/Type of Work –Different H&S Culture –Access to H&S Training –Knowledge of Rights Foreign Language Guidance Dedicated Webpages

16. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Working Patterns Flexibility Increasing –Home/Tele-working, Part-Time, Shift Working, Second Jobs Employment more Precarious –Short-Term Contracts, Agencies, Temporary Workers, Self- Employment

17. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Implications Need to Ensure Effective (H&S) Training Increased Risk of Injury to Part Time & Temporary Workers ? Clarify Responsibility for Management of H&S –Agency vs. Employer Flexible/Precarious Working –Greater Personal Control, Productivity –Increased Stress, Social Isolation & Work/Life Blurring Monitoring/Ensuring the Safety of Remote Working Locations

18. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Technology Developments

19. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Hydrogen Economy Combustion or Fuel Cells Vehicular and Stationary Applications (CHP) Flammability Storage (High Pressure, Adsorption) Distribution Public Perception

20. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive RFID - H&S Applications Healthcare –Patient ID, Medication (Quality/Administration), Equipment Tracking Personnel Tracking/Monitoring –Nuclear Industry, Mine Safety, Care of the Elderly, Access Control Personal Protection –Collision Prevention, Inspection Tracking Process Safety –Process Monitoring, Harsh Environments, Transport Applications

21. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive HPE HAL-5 Bionic Exoskeleton –Self-Powered –Doubling of Lifting Capacity –Applications for Care Workers & the Military Cognitive Enhancing Drugs –Eugeroics – Modafinil –Stay Awake/Alert for 36 Hours –Foresight Drug Futures Predict Common Use by 2011

22. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Rapid Manufacturing A manufacturing revolution which will change society as we know it !! Extension of Rapid Prototyping technologies –Stereolithography, Laser Sintering, 3D Printing, Fused Deposition Early adopters in medical, automotive, aerospace industries Offers the capability for mass customisation

23. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive HSE Scenarios for 2017

24. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive HSE Scenarios for 2017 Decreased UK global competitiveness Increased UK global competitiveness Personal responsibility, pro-active adoption of technology, management of risk Blame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of risk Tough Choices Boom and Blame Digital Rose Garden A Virtue of Necessity

25. An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive Summary Horizon Scanning Background Socioeconomic Trends –Shape of Industry –Demography –Working Patterns Technology Snippets Scenarios for 2017 http://www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm