1. Scenarios and Extreme Events Ernestine Fu | CEE 129

2. Presentation Outline Global Climate Change and Extreme Events Scenario Planning Issues in Analyzing Extreme Events Uncertainty Multiple and Compound Extremes Impacts Dependent on the Local Situation Scenario Hurricane Ernestine on Gulfport

3. “Climate change will further magnify disaster risk. There is major concern that increased frequency and intensity of extreme hydro- meteorological events will result in a corresponding increase in the number or magnitude of disasters.” - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

4. Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Severity of Event Frequency of event

5. Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Severity of Event Frequency of event X Y1Y1

6. Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Severity of Event Frequency of event X Y1Y1 Y2Y2

7. Hurricanes: Predicted Increase

8. Hurricanes: Observed Increase

9. Solution? Adaptation and Mitigation. Adaption: reactively adjusting to the impacts of changing climate Mitigation: attempts to low the process of global climate change by lowering GHG levels in the atmosphere

10. Scenario: “a story about what happened in the future”

11. Issues in Analyzing Extreme Events 1.Uncertainty 2.Multiple and Compound Extremes 3.Impacts Dependent on the Local Situation

12. Issue: Uncertainty in Data

13. Issue: Uncertainty in Terminology “Events that are “rare* at a particular place and time of year.” “Rare” = the highest or lowest 10%. Hurricanes Floods Storm Surges

14. Issue: Multiple and Compound Extremes

15. Issue: Impacts Dependent on Local Situation

16. Hurricane Ernestine on Gulfport Category 4

17. Case Study: Hurricane Katrina August 2005 Category 5 175 mph winds 25-28 feet storm surge 1,200 fatalities $90.9 billion (2011 USD) damage

18. Case Study: Hurricane Katrina

21. Hurricane Ernestine (Category 4) Impacts Winds: 131-155 mph | Catastrophic damage Damage to warehouses Debris and containers washed inland impact the city and surrounding area Structural damage to top floors of apartment buildings Power outages for weeks to possibly months Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies destroyed Very high risk of injury or death to people due to flying objects and falling debris

22. Gulfport Storm Surge

23. Scenario: Gulfport Storm Surge

26. There’s no benefit to inaction.