1. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE co-chairs

2. © Crown copyright Met Office What is WGNE? The Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), jointly established by the WCRP and the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), has the responsibility of fostering the development of atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing and resolving shortcomings.Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Terms of reference 1.Advise the JSC and CAS on progress in atmospheric modelling. 2.Review the development of atmospheric models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all scales, including the diagnosis of shortcomings. 3.Propose numerical experiments aiming to refine numerical techniques and the formulation of atmospheric physics processes, boundary layer processes and land surface processes in models. 4.Design and promote coordinated experiments for: validating model results against observed atmospheric properties and variations; exploring the intrinsic and forced variability and predictability of the general circulation of the atmosphere on short to extended ranges; assessing the intrinsic and forced variability of the atmosphere on climate timescales. 5.Promote the development of data assimilation methods for application to numerical weather and climate predictions, and for the estimation of derived climatological quantities. 6.Promote the development of new methods for numerical weather prediction and climate simulation. 7.Maintain scientific liaison with other WCRP and CAS groups as appropriate. 8.Promote the timely exchange of information, data and new knowledge on atmospheric modelling through publications, workshops and meetings.

4. © Crown copyright Met Office In short…… Development of atmospheric models – all space and time scales Advice, liaison Co-ordinated experiments Workshops, publications, meetings

5. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities in light of a model development framework Model Overall assessment and verification Diagnostics to identify causes of model error Perform process studies (model + observations) Definition and design of suitable process studies Develop model improvements Application NWP; seasonal; climate Jakob, BAMS, in press

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Current activities

7. © Crown copyright Met Office Enhancing routine forecast verification  Many activities largely carried out in strong collaboration with the Joint WWRP/WGNE Working Group on Forecast Verification Research  A very good example of the long-term successful collaboration between WWRP and WGNE.  WGNE has been instrumental in the establishment of a Climate Model Metrics Panel (members from across WMO activities) 24-h FC-Error of location of rainfall systems in SE Australia Courtesy BOM

8. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose AMIP II (WGNE/WGCM)  Exercise climate models in NWP mode  Enables diagnosis of parametrization behaviour under realistic flow conditions.  Project entering Phase 2 -> Focus on YOTC year(s) -> 64 coordinated forecasts  2 sets of analyses  Data will be available through PCMDI  6 centres committed Rainfall forecasts at ARM SGP Seamless research in action http://hadobs.metoffice.com/tamip/news.html

9. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose AMIP II – diagnostic subprojects MJO dynamics in the Transpose-AMIP II hindcasts: (PI: Mitch Moncrieff) Water budget analysis (PI: Gill Martin) Comparison of methodologies (initial tendency using own analysis vs 5-day forecast using alien analysis) (PI: Mark Rodwell) Cloud regimes (PI: Keith Williams) Relationship between short and long timescale model errors (PI:TBD) Regional investigation into model tendencies (PI: TBD) Comparison of current climate and NWP models (PI:TBD) 2009 SE Asian monsoon analysis (PI: TBD) ……..

10. Cloudy infrared radiances: Intercomparison exercise Sponsored by ISSWG and WGNE Coordinators: Lydie Lavanant, Florence Rabier Contributors: Arlindo Arriaga, Thomas August, Sylvain Cros, Nadia Fourrié, Antonia Gambacorta, Sylvain Heilliette, Fiona Hilton, Min-Jeong Kim, Tony McNally, Hidenori Nishihata, Ed Pavelin, Ben Ruston, Claudia Stubenrauch

11. 11 Comparison of IASI Cloud Products for cloudy radiance assimilation Rationale: IASI data for temperature and humidity sounding are now assimilated in clear conditions at many operational meteorological centres. However, a large amount of situations, more than 80% on the whole globe, are covered by clouds. The first step is to detect and characterize the clouds in the footprint of the sounder. Experimental settings: All methods are applied to a 12-h global acquisition on 18 Nov. 2009.

12. 12 First results over the globe The grey color corresponds to clear situations or undetermined cloud heights. The main meteorological structures have been retrieved by all the schemes but the cloud heights can be very different.

13. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE-THORPEX PDP effort on model diagnostics  WGNE and THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes (PDP) WG have agreed to jointly strengthen research activities in forecast error diagnostics in support of model development.  Cross-representation at each others meetings (A Brown / T Jung)  Joint expert meeting on “Diagnosis of Forecast Errors” held in Zurich, July 2010  State of the art models still suffer from substantial errors  Diagnostic work (+dynamical expertize) has potential to inform developers at process level to guide development  Future activities on application of diagnostic techniques to monsoon problems and cyclonic systems

14. © Crown copyright Met Office Other activities on model development and enhancement  Parametrization -> with GMPP (GCSS, GLASS, GABLS)  High-resolution (km-scale) NWP  Cross-representation at WWRP Mesoscale Working Group Meetings  Possible coordinated project on effects of resolution near convection- resolving scales  Atmospheric composition  WGNE-25 had a series of invited talks  Members will provide input on current status of operational AC prediction  Coupled atmosphere-ocean NWP  Increased collaboration with GODAE OceanView (workshop / project?)  SURFA project to compare NWP near surface fields and fluxes to buoy data

15. © Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF and DWD cf WHOI flux buoy at 20S 85W

16. © Crown copyright Met Office Physics / model development workshop WGNE in collaboration with all WCRP and WWRP partners is planning to hold a workshop on “Physics in Global and Earth System Models”. Aim: Define 4-5 key areas for model development in the next 5 years (e.g. build on results of WGNE/WCRP initiated survey) Charge the workshop to draw up a plan of attack for each of the areas. Likely time-frame: September 2011

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Summary and Challenges  WGNE hosts a wide range of activities in support of model evaluation and development.  Enhanced collaboration with WWRP/THORPEX.  Meso-scale group, THORPEX PDP and DAOS, YOTC, JWGV,...  Enhanced links to WCRP (SPARC, WGCM, WGSIP)  Model and DA development remains at the heart of better forecasts at all ranges and needs to remain a high priority!  New activities need to be carefully integrated into the group’s functions without the loss of focus on atmospheric model and DA development, which defined the group’s success over the last 25 years!  Possible impact of WCRP restructuring?

18. © Crown copyright Met Office Questions?

19. Who? To: - NWP and Seasonal Forecasting Centres (WGNE) - World Climate Modelling Centres - WGCM and associated MIPs (PMIP, CFMIP, C4MIP, etc) - CLIVAR modelling groups (WGOMD, WGSIP) - CLIVAR regional and monsoon panels - US CLIVAR panels and working groups - WCRP Task force on Regional Climate Downscaling - WCRP Projects (CLIC, SPARC, GEWEX) - WWRP, THORPEX - IGBP/AIMES From: Sandrine Bony, Gerald Meehl, Anna Pirani (WGCM), Christian Jakob, Martin Miller (WGNE), Ben Kirtman (WGSIP), Stephen Griffies (WGOMD), Tony Busalacchi (WCRP)

20. The questions : Q1. Please state your particular area of interest (e.g. global/regional climate modelling, NWP,...) Q2. Given your interest, what would you consider/identify as the KEY uncertainties/deficiencies/problems of current models ? What do you think should be evaluated/improved as a priority in models in terms of parametrization and/or interactions among processes? Q3: Do you see a particular gap (in knowledge, in observations or in practice) that would need to be filled, or a particular connection between different modelling communities or between modelling, process studies and observations that should be made a priority? Q4: Do you see any particular resource or opportunity within the modelling/process study/observational/theoretical community (e.g. new results, new observations) that would be particularly useful and should be exploited to tackle this problem? Q5 What would best accelerate progress on the topics raised in questions 2-4? Do you have suggestions for new initiatives (new process studies, field campaigns, or new collaborative approaches, eg international Working Groups, Climate Process Teams)? Q6: Any other suggestions/issues to be raised?

21. Some highlights so far Key issues/deficiencies (Q2): Tropical biases and variability (double ITCZ, cold tongue, ENSO, MJO,...) Clouds, moist processes and associated feedbacks Carbon cycle and land surface/ocean - atmosphere coupling in general Troposphere-stratosphere interaction Physics in high-resolution modelling

22. An early attempt at synergy Promote growth of the model development community Organize coordinated investigations into the link between model error and prediction error Reduce the gaps between modelling, process and observations communities Reduce the gaps between NWP/seasonal/climate communities Observation-related issues: maintain networks, simulators, field experiments Facilitate sharing of resources (cf. CMIP)