1. Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report
Joint NAEDEX-23 and
APSDEU-11 Meetings
Boulder, USA.
02-06 May 2011
Gilles Verner (Josée Morneau)
Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Meteorological Service of Canada
Mike Manore
Director, Monitoring Strategies and
Network Design
Meteorological Service of Canada
APSDEU-9

2. Outline Current Operational Status:
Space Based Monitoring and Satellite reception facilities
IT Infrastructure (Computers and Telecoms)
Operational NWP system at CMC, data usage
Canadian observations; migration to TDCF and some data issues
Recent NWP Changes and Future Developments:
Oct. 2010: Regional LAM 3D-Var
March/April 2011: Canadian Pcp Anal. (CaPA) + CIS 3D-Var Ice Anal.
June: Major Global improvement: (mods. to physics and more obs., SST)
June: Major EPS improvement: EnKF and model resolution, SST
July: Regional EPS
Next: Regional LAM 4D-Var
Next: Update to Sat. Obs (RARS, GPSRO, AVHRR Winds)
Future : data usage, assimilation and models
APSDEU-9

3. Space-Based Monitoring activities
Environment Canada lead: Mike Manore
understanding satellite data requirements
Environment Canada wide
meteorological, climate, ice, marine oil spill, wildlife habitat, etc,….
ensuring data access & exchange
coordination/arrangements with satellite operators and other users
gov’t-to-gov’t, gov’t-to-agency, commercial
MoU with NOAA, Agreement with Eumetsat…
all appropriate missions and sensors
operation of EC satellite data reception and processing systems
within Gov’t of Canada ‘Shared Federal Infrastructure’
EC leadership for operational meteorological missions
operate as a national network: GOES- Alfheim; HRPT – Bradley
ownership for national SAR wind system
future missions
influence future missions to meet EC requirements
Canada (CSA), International
E.G. CSA PCW mission
Chinook mission – no longer in the plan
Mike Manore est lead Space Based Monitoring
Les stations de réception (GOES, HRPT) appartiennent au Space Based Monitoring et sont gérées comme un réseau national.
Space Based est responsable (budget du remplacement).
Avant chaque région s’occupait de ses affaires.
Arne est maintenant le « life cycle manager » pour Goes.
Il n’y a toujours pas de « life cycle manager » pour HRPT.
EARS est tombé sous le chapeau Space Based.
Mike a délégué le dossier EARS à Gilles V.
APSDEU-9

4. MSC Satellite Data Reception Facilities
EARS - Eumetsat
Upgrade to Resolute HRPT site and telecoms (T1) completed in 2010
Resolute
GOES
Gander
HRPT
EARS
Edmonton (2)
Vancouver
UK MetO
Dartmouth
Capital
O&M
Winnipeg
CMC (3)
Ottawa
Three HRPT sites are METOP ready (received in Gander).
X-band capability in Edmonton (1 site).
Toronto
NOAA
APSDEU-9

5. Example of N-18 image from Resolute Bay available in Dorval 12 minutes after end of scan

6. IT - Computers and Telecoms
Current IBM status :
OPS: 121 compute nodes; R&D: 121 compute nodes
Total of 4512 P5+ processors
New 2.5 year contract signed with IBM - upgrade in Sept Plan is twin clusters, total P7 cores (~10x current capacity) OFF-SITE turnkey system
FE’s: all Linux based, new clusters soon (used for pre- and post-processing); major project in 2010
Links to NOAA-TOC (GTS), UK MetO (meteosat + GTS back-up), EUMETSAT (EARS), internet to NESDIS/NCEP
Recent discussions for link to NOAA (TOC-NCEP-NESDIS), at 45 mbps capacity. Target is Fall 2011.
Recent discussions with UK MetO – RMDCN connection
EumetCast also under consideration

7. CMC-MRD unified multi-scale model : GEM
GEM = Global Environmental Model
APSDEU-9

8. Immediate & Short-Range Weather Short-Range Air quality
GDPS
RDPS
HRDPS
AQ-RDPS
Forecast Objectives
Medium-Range Weather
Short-Range Weather
Immediate & Short-Range Weather
Short-Range Air quality
(O3 & PM2.5)
Model &
Domain(s)
GEM
global
GEM-LAM
Regional :
N. Am. & adj. waters
4 domains: West, East, Maritimes, Arctic
GEM-MACH
Canada
(Sub domain of RDPS)
Horizontal
grid
33km
800x600
15km
649x672
(glb pilot : 55 km)
2.5 km
~600x470
15 km
348x465
Vertical levels / Lid
L80
0,1 hPa
L58
10hPa
Lead Time
(Initial time)
240h
(00z & 12z)
48h/54h
(00z, 06z, 12z, & 18z)
24h
(West & East, 12z
Marit. & Arc., 06z)
48h
Analysis or initial conditions
4D-Var
T108 Inner Loops : G240x120L80
3D-Var(FGAT)
T200 Inner Loops : G400x200L80
Downscaling from 00z RDPS
boundary conditions: RDPS fcst

9. Extended-Range Weather/NAEFS
GEPS
Summer 2011
REPS
Forecast Objectives
Extended-Range Weather/NAEFS
Short Range Weather
Model &
Domain
GEM Ensemble
Global
(20 members)
global
GEM-LAM Ensemble
Regional
Horizontal
grid
0.9ox0.9o (100km)
400x200
0.6ox0.6o (66km)
600x300
0.3ox0.3o (33km)
280x287
Nested with GEPS
Vertical levels &
Lid height
L28
10hPa
L40
2hPa
~10hPa
Lid nested with GEPS
Lead Time
(Initial time)
384h
(00z & 12z)
72h
Analysis
EnKF
96 members
400x200L58
192 members
Downscaling from GEPS

10. Monthly & Seasonal forecasts Seasonal forecasts?
Emergency Response
Wave forecasting
Monthly & Seasonal forecasts
Seasonal forecasts?
Forecast Objectives
Short, Medium & Long Range Simulations and Hindcast
Short-medium wave and swell (height & period and swell directions
Long -Range Weather
(Deterministic, probabilistic)
Model &
Domain(s)
MLDP0 & MLDP1
(Atm. Transport & Dispersion Mdl)
WAM
Pacific, Atlantic and Cnd Great Lakes & Arctic
4 mdls: GEM-clim,MCGA2,MCGA3 & SEF global
Horizontal
grid
10-100km (MLDP0)
0,1-33km (MLDP1)
~0,05ox0,05o (lakes) ~0,5ox0.5o (other domains) km
Forecast Hour
(Initial time)
10-30 days (MLDP0)
12h (MLDP1)
48h regional
120h global
1 month (1st & 15th of the month)
3 months (1st of the month)
months 3, 6 & 9
Initial/
Boundary conditions
3D fields from RDPS or GDPS
10m winds from RDPS or GDPS
GDPS?

11. OPS REG-LAM 3D-Var System
Blue shows the uniform resolution section of previous variable resolution GEM
Red shows the grid of the operational REG-LAM3D
(15-km, 649x672) with
3D-Var assimilation (100 km) on the LAM domain
Boundary conditions are obtained from a uniform resolution (55 km) global GEM initialized by a 3D-Var analysis (T108, ~185 km) valid at the same time as the LAM analysis
APSDEU-9 11

12. Current Hi-Res (2.5 km) LAM windows
APSDEU-9 12

13. North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS):
Joint project involving MSC, NWS and the NMSM

14. Various configurations of Reg. EPS
Vancouver 2010
Beijing 2008
OPS-REPS
Haïti 2010/11

15. Observations assimilated at CMC
Type
Variables
Thinning
Radiosonde/dropsonde
U, V, T, (T-Td), ps
28 levels
Surface report
(SYNOP, SHIP, BUOYs)
T, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water)
1 report / 6h
Aircraft
(BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS)
U, V, T
1o x 1o x 50 hPa
per time step
ATOVS
NOAA , AQUA, METOP
Ocean Land
AMSU-A
AMSU-B / MHS
250 km x 250 km
per time step
Water vapor channel GOES 11-13
IM3 (6.7 m)
2o x 2o 3-hourly
AIRS
87 IR channels
250kmx250km/time step
ASCAT
U,V at 10 meter over ocean
100kmx100km/time step
SSM/I NIL
7 MW channels
200kmx200km/time step
AMV’s
(METEOSAT E-W, GOES E-W, MTSAT-1R)
U,V
(IR, WV, VI, 3.9μ channels)
1.5o x 1.5o
11 layers, per time step
MODIS polar winds
(Aqua, Terra, Global & DB)
U,V
~180 km boxes
11 layers, per time step
Profiler (NOAA Network)
U,V
(750 m) Vertical hourly
GPSRO (COSMIC, GRACE, GRAS)
Refractivity
830 m, per time step
U,V
APSDEU-9

16. Canadian observations - MTDCF
Two major areas of development underway for MTDCF (leads are Tony Colavecchia and Yves Pelletier)
Radiosonde data: Using Vaisala software at each site to generate both alphanumeric and BUFR bulletins (template with 4D trajectory). BUFR data from 2 sites received and validated at CMC. Awaiting telecoms upgrade for full network deployment
Surface data: Will have centralized processing (DMF initiative) using raw data formats from stations to encode in BUFR using template plus a national template extension. Data from SYNOP, METAR and SA will be in BUFR. Test data to be available at CMC during Summer 2011.
Will need a transition period when data in both BUFR and alpha. codes would be available. Some data processing adaptation to do (both NWP and forecast applications) and need to have some data to do so!
Have started to process international data fro NWP and DMF.
APSDEU-9

17. Canadian observations
Canadian radiosonde data – still alternating between Loran sondes (no wind) and GPS sondes, roughly ½ network each. To be completed by end of Summer. Issue related to large stock of Loran sondes. Additional cost to operate 100% GPS is $1M.
Canadian radar data - available at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) is operational, full volume scans available. Available to NOAA on CMC datamart but not yet in BUFR. No QPE product yet. Issue of data exchange format.
Some research wind profilers in Southern Ontario and Quebec: operated by University and private company, data now available to CMC from 8 sites and should be inserted on GTS once validated, in BUFR code (OPERA software): headers to be communicated as soon as available. Another 2 sites in 2011, but significant issues with operating funds. Data quality issues have been identified and is slowing down progress.
Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR as part of MTDCF.
Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…data now in BUFR.
Some soil TT data now available, eventually in BUFR. Alphanumeric format could be made available.
Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone.
APSDEU-9

18. Canadian observations
“Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by data problems as reported by MetOffice and NOAA : surface elevations are not available or wrong. Data should be inserted by each individual country and not by CMC.
SAR-Winds: Demonstration application generates marine sfc winds from SAR and ASAR imagery (Radarsat and Envisat). Fairly high resolution over small areas, wind direction information obtained from NWP model (LAM or REG) or from cross-polarization if available. One-year transition before full operational transition.
Canadian AMDAR – very little change to operations:
AC Jazz: data from 25 CRJ on GTS, all on GTS. Data received from 4 DHC-8 only, but retained due to ongoing problems with data quality of DHC-8.
Also obtaining data from 2 NavCanada CRJ’s, data quality is good and transmitted on GTS. Often in remote areas and low levels.
No progress with other airlines.
MSC-ADAS system and software is used for data reception and processing, in-house Linux based system. Fully redundant.
Monitoring of data is on-going and showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.
APSDEU-9

19. Canadian AMDAR coverage
APSDEU-9

20. Ontario-Québec Wind Profiler Network (OQ Net)
These are the proposed wind profilers for Ontario and Quebec. We are presently receiving 6 of them (circled in red) and Eureka. The remaining three dotted red ones should be installed this year plus another near Kapuskasing.
Courtesy of Wayne Hocking (University of Western Ontario)
APSDEU-9

21. Scatter plots (OQnet) – March 2011
Bias = 0.43
STD = 3.69
Bias = 0.38
STD = 2.48
Bias = -0.46
STD = 3.46
8000 m
10000 m
Bias = 0.21
STD = 3.98
Bias = -0.24
STD = 5.11

22. Scatter plots (NOAA) – March 2011 Wolcott, Blueriver, Woodlake, Winchester, Slater, Neligh
Bias = -0.16
STD = 2.19
Bias = 0.11
STD = 1.91
Bias = 0.02
STD = 2.05
7750 m
10000 m
Bias = -0.75
STD = 2.51
Bias = -0.36
STD = 2.75

23. Eaxple of SAR Wind - Barrier Jet - 17 Feb 2007
APSDEU-9

24. Availability of aircraft data : status
ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO – on GTS
Large increase in amount of ADS data in North Atlantic!
Alaska Airlines has joined the MDCRS in the USA

25. Availability of aircraft data : status
ADS: UANT01 CWAO – also UANT99 KDDL

26. Other data issues
SSM/I F15 – Still received and used for operational ice analysis
Future plans for Scatterometer? Availability of OceanSat?
Access to SMOS data ? Data volume (10 GB/day is problematic for NRT NWP (CaLDAS). Need a lower volume NRT product.
Would like to access direct broadcast FY-3a. Agreement signed with CMA, but still need technical information to adapt AHRPT receivers and processing software (any info. would be useful). Interested in accessing Global sounder data if available?
Collection of global ADS-Met data. Recent increase over North Atlantic appears mostly uncoordinated? What about expansion of ADS in other areas?
GeoNetcast system for Americas – with similar content as Eumetcast Ku band?
Access to other GPS-RO instruments if possible.
Issue with change in COSMIC GPS-RO in Oct 2009

27. Change in processing of COSMIC GPSRO data – 12 oct 2009
Change in Oct. 2009
Change in Oct. 2009

28. Change in processing of COSMIC GPSRO data – 12 oct 2009
Starting October 12, :00UTC, the CDAAC near real-time data products will include the changes explained in COSMIC status updates from April 16, 2009 and May 12, 2009.b
MetO not affected – not using Ps correction in adjoint

29. Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting (much delays due to Linux migration in 2010)
October 2010 – Regional LAM 3D-Var
Continental scale limited area version of GEM, same resolution
Hourly piloting (BC’s) from 55-km global system, run at same time as LAM, with its own 3DVar analysis
Using same data as previous system
Paper of Fillion et al, Weather & Forecasting, 2010.
Data assimilation support for higher resolution LAMs
4D-Var version now ready (April 2011)
March 2011 – CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis)
Optimum interpolation, 6h and 24h accumulations, NOAM domain
First guess from Reg-15 km
SYNOP, METAR, SHEF, SA, RMCQ (COOP sites) data
Requires extensive QC, particularly in Winter
Analysis must include confidence index for use
Radar QPE not yet included
APSDEU-9

30. Spin-up of REG-LAM 3D-Var
APSDEU-9

31. CaPA 6h, Z
ANALYSIS
CONFIDENCE

32. Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting
March 2011 – CIS 3D-Var NOAM Ice Analysis
Explosion in availability of SAR data in next 5 years, and rapid evolution in quantity of ice products to generate
Need to automate some labour intensive tasks at CIS
Goal is to produce automated analyses of sea-ice conditions for operational needs of MSC:
enhanced ability of CIS to deliver operational sea-ice products over larger area than currently possible
improved NWP by supplying better sea-ice analyses for initializing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the Arctic.
Using NWP-like data assimilation set-up, 5-km NOAM grid
SSM/IS and AMSR-E using Nasa-Team-2 algorithm
CIS RadarSat image analysis and daily ice chart (manual analyses)
CIS lake analysis (manual analysis)
First automated product at CIS to be Davis Strait Ice Edge
Global configuration (10-km) in preparation for operational NWP at CMC
Future: Assimilation of scatterometer, visible-infrared, SAR/ASAR and ice thickness satellite-based observations
Future: Coupling to regional and global ice-ocean-atmosphere models
APSDEU-9

33. Assimilated data: Typical data coverage
SSM/I ice concentration
AMSR-E ice concentration
CIS daily ice charts
CIS image analyses

34. Next version of global system – June 2011
Change to physics to reduce false alarms in tropical cyclones (more stable tropical BL)
New SST global analysis
Improved dynamical bias correction for radiances (same code for all)
SSM/IS (7 SSMI-like channels), F16 only
IASI (62 channels, initially planned for 150), no WV
WV AIRS channels initially included were rejected
CSR (Geo-rad) data with RTTOV – 5 GEO (includes MTSAT)
Reduced thinning for all radiance data (from 250 km to 150 km, roughly 3x more radiance data)
Moisture data from AMDAR
FASTEM bug fix in RTTOV
Increased resolution of inner loops to T180 rejected (due to timings)
Accepted for operational implementation; subjective evaluation very positive, including tropical cyclone forecasts. Small anal. differences over Pacific leading to often better medium range forecasts NOAM
Total data count increasing from 1.9M/day to 4.1M/day
All changes also included in Regional system

35. Verification against raobs – day 6
OPS
PAR
Northern Hemis.
O-F 144hr
Southern Hemis.
O-F 144hr

36. Verification: anomaly correlation
OPS
PAR
Northern Hemis.
GZ 500 hPa
Tropics
GZ 500hPa
Southern Hemis.
GZ 500hPa
RMS

37. Next version of global EPS – June 2011
GEM with staggered vertical coordinate
New SST global analysis (same as global)
EPS at higher horizontal resolution (600x300, ~66 km)
L40, top at 2 hPa
Revised stochastic parameterizations
EnKF using 192 members
Each member at same resolution as before (400x200, ~100 km) with L58 and top at 2 hpa
Incorporates AMSUA channels 11 and 12
Still using old thinning for all radiance data (from 250 km)
FASTEM bug fix in RTTOV as in GDPS
Bias correction and QC from GDPS
Still under evaluation in parallel run but approval for operational implementation expected soon; subjective and objective evaluation very positive, much improved verifications.

38. NWP changes in next few months (but IBM migration to take care of…)
Regional Ensemble Prediction System (accepted)
20 members, GEM-LAM grid, 33-km L28
72-hr fcst, initial condition from GEPS-EnKF
Boundary conditions from 20-GEPS members
Reg-LAM 4D-Var (ready for proposal)
Same grid as Reg-LAM 3D-Var
Same obs. as new global system (80% more obs than 3DVar)
TLM/AD piloting from global trial fields
Upgrade to 10-km planned for early 2012
Update to observations
GPSRO update (TerraSARX, SAC-C)
RARS AMSUA/B/MHS (EARS/AP-RARS/SA-RARS)
AVHRR Polar Winds
Satellite changes (GOES, MTSAT : CSR &AMV`s, SSMIS)
Additional AIRS & IASI channels ? RTTOV-10 ?

39. Verifications against G2 4D-Var Analyses
48-h DIFF RMSE (m)
GZ-500 hPa
Winter-2009
Blue:
4D-Var is better

40. Winter 2009 48h Forecast GZ-500 hPa SUMMER-2008 12h Forecast
REG-3D
REG-4D
Winter 2009
48h Forecast
GZ-500 hPa
SUMMER-2008
12h Forecast
UV-500 hPa

41. Longer term NWP changes and data
Global km and vertical staggering, T180 inner loops, 100-km thinning
Increase resolution in GEPS/EnKF, use of GEPS for monthly forecasting
Windsat ; NPP (ATMS,CrIS) ; Metop- 2 ; OceanSAT (scat)? GPS-ZWD (Reg-4dvar) ;
Radiosonde data in BUFR (4D profiles), similar processing as for AMDAR
CaLDAS (SMOS data, eventually SMAP, soil TT profiles)
Begin development of Regional-EnKF for REPS
Data assimilation for sea ice (3D-Var global and lam): SSMIS, AMSR, SAR
Other satellite observations as they become available (ADM-Aeolus, GPM, Sentinel, etc)
Assimilation of cloudy radiances
EC involvement in PCW if mission is approved (ground segment, data processing and products), assimilation
Assimilation of chemical constituents in GEM-MACH (R. Ménard)
Ocean modelling and assimilation (with Mercator)
Major project underway to unify the EC assimilation systems to meet requirements of both EPS and Deterministic systems
Coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice NWP/Assimilation system

42. Monitoring Web sites
User: monitoring PW: CMC
For description of nwp fields