1. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 18 th World Energy Congress Round Table 6: Sustainability (Living in One World) Wednesday, October 24, 2001  PSI scenario  Primary energy consumption reference  Kyoto scenario  Learning curve  External cost due to air pollution  The idea of an insurance fund  Proposal for an international environmental court  Conclusions Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Some Unusual Ideas Meinrad K. Eberle, Paul Scherrer Institute

2. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 Options  Reduce greenhouse gas emissions (technology, nuclear, renewables, sequestration, sinks, farming) and: consumption standards, taxation, CDM, JI, certificate trade, etc. Assuming we might get into trouble:  Establish insurance fund  Establish an international environmental court

3. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 PSI Scenario (Close to IPCC Scenario B2, Doubling of CO 2 Concentration by 2100) World Population GDP +2.8%/year Primary Energy +1.5%/year CO 2 Emissions Kyoto Reference Case CO 2 Source: PSI Dissertation L. Barreto

4. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 Primary Energy, Reference Scenario, World 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1990200020102020203020402050 Year Primary Energy (PJ) Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass Nat. Gas Oil Coal

5. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 CO 2 Emissions, Reference Scenario, Different World Regions 0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 1990200020102020203020402050 Year CO 2 Emissions (Mt C) LA+AF ASIA ECOT OECD(-) NAM

6. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 Primary Energy, Kyoto Scenario, World; Full Trade Starting 2010 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1990200020102020203020402050 Year Primary Energy (PJ) Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass Nat. Gas Oil Coal

7. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 1990200020102020203020402050 Year CO 2 Emissions (Mt C) LA+AF ASIA ECOT OECD(-) NAM Baseline

8. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 100 1000 10000 100000 0.0010.010.1110100100010000 Cumulative Capacity (GW) Nuclear, New Generation Gas Combined Cycle Gas Fuel Cell Photovoltaics Wind Coal, New Generation 1995 Wind 1997 Specific Investment Costs for Different Electricity Production Systems Depending on Installed Generation Capacity US$/kW

9. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 Region/PollutantSO 2 NO x PM 10 EU-15 (after Krewitt et al., 2000)3 6003 5007 000 Switzerland a (after Hirschberg et al., 2001)7 5009 40011 000 Asia (after Hirschberg et al., to be published) 2 0001 1002 300 South America (after Krewitt et al., 2000)150200450 External Costs (2000) Due to Air Pollution in US$ per Ton

10. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 Cost Type/Scenario Reference Scenario Kyoto Scenario, Full Trade > 2010 CO 2 Damage (Billion (2000) US$), per year 1990: 3 - 400 2020: 4 –600 2050: 5 – 900 1990: 3 - 400 2020: 3 – 500 2050: 3 – 500 Air Pollution Damage (Billion (2000) US$), per year 1990: 340 2020: 640 2050: 1 800 1990: 340 2020: 440 2050: 1 000 Cumulative Carbon Dioxide Damage, 1990 – 2050 (Trillion (2000) US$) 0.2 –380.2 – 29 Cumulative Air Pollution Damage, 1990 – 2050 (Trillion (2000) US$) 5234 Total Cumulative Damage, 1990 – 2050 (Trillion (2000) US$) 52 - 9034 – 63 Undiscounted Cumulative System Costs, 1990 – 2050 (Trillion (2000) US$) 249259

11. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 How to Feed an Insurance Fund Principle: Those who produce GHG, pay Oil: US$ 2/bbl (US$ 0.05/G gasoline) results in: US$ 2.4E12 (25y), 10.7E12 (50y) @ 5 % All fossil fuels result in: US$ 5.3E12 (25y), 24E12 (50y) @ 5 %

12. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 Legal Issues – Food for Thought  Binding emission limits per country  Enhance international environmental law  Establish an international climate agency  Establish standards under which a law suit can be brought forward  Establish sanctions for non-performance  Establish an international court  Ect…..

13. Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI WEC Oct. 01 / EM01/JA01 Conclusions  Reduce drastically primary energy consumption  Increase energy self-sufficiency through renewables  Establish an insurance fund  Establish an international environmental court  Remember e 3 : economy, ecology, equity