1. Charting the Course Developing Effective Plans for the Future Youth Violence Reduction: Making the Case for Evidence Based Strategies

2. Presented by: Karl Bertrand, L.M.S.W

3. “Evidence-Based Models” Guide HOW You Serve “Evidence-Based Targeting” Guides WHO You Serve

4. Need to Target Limited Resources Option 1: Wait Until Kids Get Arrested Option 2: MOVE UPSTREAM

5. 54 Risk Factors! Being Male Being Poor Being a Gang Member

6. We Need Weighted Risk Factors

7. The Standard Approach Survey Your Community Identify the Most Common Risk Factors Choose Which of the Most Common Risk Factors to Target

8. The Standard Approach is WEAK!

9. To Maximize Effectiveness DON’T Target the Most Common Risk Factors Target Those UNCOMMON Risk Factors (Or Combinations of Risk Factors) Most Closely Associated With Crime

10. The Challenge How To Identify the Most Significant Risk Factors

11. The Yonkers JCEC Database Uses Unique IDs to Maintain Confidentiality Unique IDs Based on System Used for HIV Records Cross-References Multiple Data Sets

12. Police Data School Data Social Service Data Census Data The Yonkers JCEC Database

13. Police Data Juvenile Arrests

14. School Data Truancy Suspensions Serious School Incidents Special Education Status

15. Social Service Data Foster Care

16. Census Data Gender Age High Poverty Census Tracts (>20%)

17. The Pyramid of Risk 4 333,893 All Youth Aged 7-15 7 517,168 Males Aged 7-15 10 76,614 Aged 10-14, High Poverty 36 21709 Grades 7-8, 20+ Absences 38 24690 Grades 1-12, 3-Day Suspension 49 41170 Aged 11-13, Arrested in 2003 128 6141 Grades 6-8, 20+ Absences AND 3-Day Suspension # Arrests (Per 100, 3 Years) # Arrested (Per 100, 3 Years) Group Size Risk Factor

18. Recommendations for Providers 1.Target the Highest Risk-Groups HOW?  Use the Pyramid of Risk

19. 2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS! HOW?  Provide One-On-One Services  Mentoring  Functional Family Therapy  Scatter in Pro-Social Groups Recommendations for Providers

20. 3. Track Arrests (The Ultimate Outcome Measure) HOW?  Preserve Confidentiality  Obtain Parental Consent  Give Program Participant Names to Police  Get Back ONLY Aggregate Number of Arrests Recommendations for Providers

21. 4. Use Yonkers Data as “Estimated Baseline” HOW?  See “Sample Program Outcomes Form” Recommendations for Providers

22. 5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented HOW?  Calculate Yonkers Baseline for Your Group  Compare Your Results to Estimated Baseline  Calculate Estimated Number of Arrests Prevented  Divide Costs By Number of Arrests Prevented

23. Recommendations for Providers 1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups 2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS 3. Track Arrests 4. Use Yonkers Data as “Estimated Baseline” 5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented

24. Recommendations for Funders 1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups 2. Measure % of High-Risk Groups Now Served 3. Make Funded Programs Report Arrest Rate 4. Compare Arrest Rates Across Similar Programs 5. Use Yonkers Data as Estimated Baseline 6. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented 5. Join PD&D’s Proposed Research Project

25. Questions