1. Climate Change

2. The story line Earth’s energy budget More energy? Warming? What else? What about the future? So what?

4. The climate system Involves the exchange of energy and moisture that occur among the: Atmosphere Hydrosphere Solid Earth Biosphere Cryosphere (ice and snow)

5. Natural causes for climate change Greenhouse gases Solar variation –Long term increase –11-year cycle (0.08%) Orbital variations Volcanism Plate tectonics

6. Human causes for climate change Long-lived greenhouse gases –CO 2, Methane, N 2 O Aerosols Land use Aviation contrails

7. More Energy?

13. Warming yet?

17. What else?

29. Larsen B ice shelf broken up Jan 31, 2002March 7, 2002

31. Contributions to Sea Level Rise

32. What about the future?

33. How good are climate models? Simple climate model Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) Atmosphere-ocean global circulation models (AOGCMs)

36. Temperature increase for different levels of CO 2 concentration

37. IPCC SRES Scenarios A – Economic growth –A1: more integrated and convergent world with stabilizing population at 9 billion –A2: more divided and fragmented world with increasing population B – Ecologically friendly –B1: more integrated world with stabilizing population –B2: more divided and fragmented world with slower rate of population growth

38. Emission Scenarios

40. Projected global surface warming and sea level rise at 2100

44. So what?

46. A tale of an island

47. Cape May County, New Jersey

48. Atlantic County, New Jersey

49. Mid-Atlantic States: MA-VA About 1,000 square miles of land area lies below 3 feet Within this area, about 70 square miles are developed land About 388 thousand people live in this high risk zone. Nearly 3,000 miles of roads are exposed to such high risk of inundation. Southern states have more area, people and facilities lying in high risk zones because of gentler terrain and more development along the coast CARA website

50. Do Warmer Seas mean worse Hurricanes?

51. Sea surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico, 8/28/2005

52. Total power dissipated by tropical cyclones compared to September North Atlantic sea surface temperature (Emanuel, 2005)

53. Disruption of ocean circulation?

54. Shifts in Agriculture

55. Extreme Weather Events

56. Human Health More heat-related deaths Spread of tropical diseases into temperate areas Increase of vector-borne diseases: malaria, west Niles, Lyme disease Disruption of water and food supply

57. Species distribution and diversity