1. Post-Processing at DWD Post-Processing at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE) Grid-based forecasts COSMO, GME - derived products (thunderstorm ind., weather-related elements, vorticity, advection of temperature, …) - cross-sections through model domain - meteograms at selected grid points - prognostic temps at selected grid points COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009 COSMO-EU, COSMO-DE, GME, IFS (ECMWF)

2. Grid-based or rural district based probability forecasts - COSMO-DE interpretation (smoothing/calibration: Neighbourhood method) - SRNWP-PEPS (Ensemble of 23 European regional models incl. COSMO-EU) - BlitzMOS (GME, Germany) - WarnMOS (GME and IFS, Germany) Object-related forecasts - CellMOS (GME, Germany) COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009

3. Location forecasts DMO → stations (COSMO-EU, GME) - transformation into time series “optimized” DMO (site-specific properties altitude, mountain, coast, sea, …) OOG (Objective Optimized Guidance) - model combination and weighting (MOS, COSMO-EU, -DE, GME, IFS) - corrections for model deficiencies: nowcasting systems, current observations COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009

4. AutoSWIS (Road Weather Information System) - forecasts of weather and road surface conditions (MOS, COSMO-EU, GME) energy balance model (observations at stations and automatic systems at the roads) Aviation-related products - MOS-AUTOTAF (GME, Germany+) - Toptherm intensity of thermal lift (COSMO-EU vertical profiles, temperature, wind, humidity, radiation and precipitation) - ADWICE Advanced diagnostic and warning system for aircraft icing environments (COSMO-EU, observations, radar) Location forecasts (cont.) COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009

5. Standard Model Output Statistics (MOS) at DWD Model forecasts (long-term time series) Observations at stations (long-term time series) Multiple Linear Regression (minimize RMSE) MOS coefficients Development MOS forecast Operational forecast current model forecasts current observations

6. MOS approaches at DWD Station data (Standard MOS) GME-MOS IFS-MOS MOSMIX (mixing of IFS- and GME-MOS) AUTOTAF (forecasts for airports based on GME-MOS) Station data to rural districts WarnMOS (weather warning guidance based on GME and IFS) At grid points BlitzMOS (lightnings and thunderstorms) At moving systems CellMOS (thunderstorm detecting and tracking) Kind of MOS forecasts: Deterministic Probabilistic Derived elements (e.g. weather conditions)

7. Bernhard Reichert, DWD Project AutoWARN Automatic Warning Process: Overview COSMO-DE Observations Lightning, BlitzMOS CellMOS / KONRAD Radar / RADVOR-OP WarnMOS PEPS MOSMIX ASG AutoWARN Status Generator  Automatic Warning Status Proposal ASE AutoWARN Status Editor  Manually Modified Warning Status, Export External Product Generation and distribution Within AutoWARN Project Outside of AutoWARN AutoMON Automatic Monitoring  Warning Events