1. Summary And Transition: Past, Present And Future Climates Western Interior Paleontological Society Paul E. Belanger, Ph.D. WIPS 1 ST VP

2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bob Raynolds Jonathan Bujak Dag Nummedal Ian Miller Peggy LeMone Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit Global Warming/Climate Change – Resource Issues – Alternatives Study Group: FTP SITE: https://sslaccess.elkresources.net/files/

3. THE PRESENT IS THE KEY TO THE PAST (LYELL) IS also THE KEY TO THE FUTURE

4. THE PAST

5. FROM CSI TO GSI: GEOLOGICAL SAMPLE INVESTIGATION LET THE EVIDENCE SPEAK FOR ITSELF

6. WE CALL THIS EVIDENCE “PROXY” DATA

7. Strandlines/shorelines Moraines Till Kettle lakes, etc. SOME OF THE EARLIEST PROXY DATA WAS FROM TERRESTRIAL DEPOSITS We may know what caused these today, but imagine back then?

8. IT’S THE INTERPRETATION THAT’S NOT ALWAYS CORRECT Darwin observed ancient Alpine shorelines: interpreted as ocean shoreline Agassiz – later correctly interpreted as ice- dammed lake-shore strandlines/shoreline

9. Jean Louis R. Agassiz “Father” of Glaciology 1807-1873 Paleontologist Glaciologist

10. Photographic proxy data/evidence Ruddiman, 2008

11. EARLY PROXY DATA: TREE RINGS

12. Pollen & Lake core data Ruddiman, 2008

13. PROXY DATA: POLLEN DATA

14. PROXY DATA: LEAVES

15. Tree rings, corals, ice cores Ruddiman, 2008

16. PROXY DATA: ICE CORES

17. TERRESTRIAL DATA North American: Wisconsin Illinoian Kansan Nebraskan European: Wurm Riss Mindel Gunz

18. LATER EVIDENCE CAME FROM THE MARINE RECORD NOT WITHOUT IT’S PROBLEMS, BUT MORE COMPLETE

19. Cesare Emilani: Paleontologist, Chemist Father of Paleoceanography

20. Other Paleoceanographers Wally Broecker Thermal-haline “conveyor” belt of circulation

21. Bill Ruddiman Nick Shackleton Other Paleoceanographers

22. John Imbrie: CLIMAP

23. PROXY DATA: CORE DATA

24. PROXY DATA: BENTHIC FORAMS

25. PROXY DATA: PLANKTONIC FORAMS

26. Deep Sea Coring Ruddiman, 2008

27. Wikipedia Proxy data: stable isotopes

28. - SO – WHAT CONTROLS CLIMATE

29. Gerhard et al., 2001

30. OF HUGE IMPORTANCE: DISTRIBUTION OF CONTINENTS WITH RESPECT TO LATITUDE OCEAN CIRCULATION OPENING OF THE DRAKE PASSAGE: ISOLATING ANTARCTICA BARRIERS TO EQUATORIAL CIRCULATION: CLOSING OF ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 3-5 Ma

31. bipolar glaciation geologically rare possibly unique we think of this as ‘normal’…but

32. Icehouse Earth

33. Milankovitch cycles (forcing factors)

34. MILANKOVITCH CYCLES ARE REFLECTED IN THE GEOLOGIC RECORD

35. Wikipedia Cenozoic Climate Record

36. Wikipedia Climate Changes from Ocean Sediment Cores, since 5 Ma. Milankovitch Cycles

37. Brook, 2008 Nature The Ice Record: Milankovitch Empirical Interpreted

38. Gerhard et al., 2001

39. BUT IS THIS CORRECT? Does CO 2 always have a lesser role in controlling climate?

40. HERE’S THE LONG TERM RECORD Shellito Fricke Jacobs

41. Snowball Earth ~650 Ma

42. WHAT CONTROLS THE LONG-TERM RECORD? IS IT STRICTLY CONTINENTAL POSITIONS AND OCEANIC CIRCULATION?

43. TODAY WE SAW EOCENE EVIDENCE OF A WARMER CLIMATE

44. Ballantyne Shellito Fricke Jacobs

45. In particular we saw a VERY DRAMATIC increase in temperature in an environment of already HIGH CO 2 VALUES when there was an additional spike of Methane and CO 2

46. Wikipedia Proxy data: stable isotopes

48. Fossil Lotus Courtesy K. Johnson

49. Living Lotus Courtesy K. Johnson

50. BUT MARY KRAUS DIDN’T TELL US ABOUT THIS GUY!

51. RECENT FIND IN COLUMBIA

52. HERE’S NEW COMPELLING DATA FROM THE EOCENE

53. Early Eocene supergreenhouse was followed immediately by abrupt global cooling What forced this change? Bujak, pers. Comm.

54. ACEX – ARCTIC CORING EXPEDITION Expedition 302 - Arctic Coring Expedition August-September 2004

55. Lomonosov Ridge

56. P/E World No Polar Ice Caps From Blakey (2007)

57. ARCTIC EVENTS PROXY DATA Brinkhuis et al,, 2006 Moran et al., 2006

58. THE EVIDENCE DOCUMENTS AN 800,000 YEARS SEQUESTRATION EVENT CALLED THE AZOLLA EVENT

59. ACEX results 1400 ft (420m) cored section good Paleocene Eocene section recovered cored the “Azolla event” cored the PETM Bujak, pers. Comm.

60. ACEX Azolla core >8 metre ACEX core with 90% Azolla Azolla occurs as laminated layers indicates Azolla deposited in situ bottom-water anoxia at ACEX site Bujak, pers. Comm.

61. ? Azolla event base middle Eocene 49 Ma Bujak, pers. Comm.

62. the massive decrease in atmospheric CO2? Bujak, pers. Comm. UNPRECEDENTED DROP IN CO 2

63. the fastest growing plant on the planet! it can double its biomass in 2 to 3 days Bujak, pers. Comm.

64. the key is in Azolla’s leaf structure source: Carrapiço, 2002 Bujak, pers. Comm.

65. Not unlike the increase GHGs at Paleocene-Eocene causing a significant warming, there appears to be a strong suggestion that this Azolla sequestration of carbon GHGs for a period of about 800,000 years correlates to an ensuing cooling of the globe. That is NOT to say tectonic events like the opening of the Drake Passage are not also of great significance – particularly in the isolation of Antarctica and its subsequent glaciation and contribution to global cooling.

67. HERE’S THE LONG TERM RECORD Shellito Fricke Jacobs

68. FOR LONG-TERM CLIMATIC CHANGES THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS:

69. Royer et al., 2003 Geologic cycles: Climate through the Phanero- zoic— carbon is the culprit

70. IMAGINE THIS: IT’S ALSO TRUE FOR OTHER PLANETS

71. No sinks: Runaway Greenhouse Effect 97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric acid clouds Temperature: >800°F – more than twice as hot as Mercury Venus

72. The Many Time Scales of Climate Change Daily to several years: Weather – not Climate 1 o UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF solar, El Ninos, volcanism, INCREASE IN GHGs, etc. Century: the climate change the IPCC and people everywhere are worried about, because it affects the economy of society, and tracks man’s direct impact Centuries to millennia – Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles; Heinrich events 1 o UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MILANKOVITCH CYCLES, although abrupt & rapid changes in CO2 (as occurred at the PETM) can be influential 20Ka to 400 Ka years – Milankovitch cycles - insolation due to earth’s orbital changes 1 o UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CO 2 1Ma to many millions (Ma) years – Pennsylvanian ‘ice house’ and Cretaceous ‘greenhouse’ due to plate tectonic cycles of continental assembly and break-up and vertical movements. Cycling of CO 2 into and out of earth

73. The Many Time Scales of Climate Change (cont.) Unique events: “Snowball earth” in late Proterozoic (and more?) Large volcanic eruptions (OAE-2 at C/T boundary) PETM – major heat spike release of methane clathrates Message : Don’t confuse the causes of climate change at one time scale with the drivers of change at another.

74. The Long-term carbon cycle and Earths climate: Carbon cycles: Long-term carbon cycle (millions of yrs) Driver of long-term climate changes along with continental and ocean-circulation changes Responsible for Icehouses/Greenhouses Short-term carbon cycle (~1,000s to 1,000,000 yrs) CO2 currently amplifies glacial-interglacial contrasts Long-term carbon cycle and today: Burning fossil fuels is like setting off volcanoes >100 times faster than present eruptions rates Running a global experiment, which in not analogous to glacial-interglacials – BUT MAY BE ANALOGOUS to the PETM.

75. THE PRESENT (and near future)

76. THE PRESENT So what’s going on today? What’s going to happen in the short-term?

77. Today’s Unique Event: Anthropogenic Global Warming Today CO 2 for the past 400 ky Pliocene levels of 385ppm

78. 1946 – 1950 svs.gsfc.nasa.gov

79. 2002 - 2006 Temperature svs.gsfc.nasa.gov

80. Arctic Sea Ice Extent If sea-ice continues to contract rapidly over the next several years, Arctic land warming and permafrost thaw are likely to accelerate. David Lawrence, NCAR Satellite imagery of sea ice extent in September 1979, and at a record low in September 2007. Source: NASA

82. NOAA web site archives & Peter Tans The State of Affairs

83. Wikipedia Distribution of Warming: Polar/Cold Regions

86. HOWEVER: THE LATEST DATA THRU 2007 SUGGESTS GREEN HOUSE GASES ARE MATCHING AND OVERTAKING TSI VARIATIONS NCAR: Caspar Amman, 2007

87. LOWER VS. UPPER ATM.

90. Wikipedia Solar irradiance: 680 W/m 2 Solar irradiance: 342 W/m 2

91. CHOICES DO NOTHING and adapt (there WILL be a REAL cost here too) MITIGATE (or attempt to) and adapt: –Sequester –Alternate energy sources –Geo-Engineering options –Etc. Promote population control: “wear a condom at every ‘conceivable’ moment” THINK about it But ultimately: CHOOSE WHAT TO DO IN LIFE BEFORE LIFE CHOOSES WHAT YOU DO

92. THE FUTURE (Beyond the Anthropomorphic Period)

93. FUTURE CLIMATE? Crowley & Hyde, 2008 PAST FUTURE

94. FUTURE CLIMATE? Crowley & Hyde, 2008 PAST FUTURE Higher Lower - - - - Glacial Interglacial PAST FUTURE Higher Lower - - - - Glacial Interglacial

95. FUTURE CLIMATE? Crowley & Hyde, 2008 PAST FUTURE

96. Look at the Trend: Any reason to think it might not continue? Time, Ma

97. IN SUMMARY: THE PAST PRESENT AND FUTURE

98. Ballantyne Shellito Fricke Jacobs

99. TOMORROW (AS IN 14 HOURS FROM NOW)

100. Western Interior Paleontological Society Founders Symposium Sunday, March 15 th 2009 NCAR/UCAR:NOAA:

101. NCAR/UCAR GUIDES (Coordinated by Peggy LeMone) BE THERE AT 8:30 a.m. / 1:00 p.m. 2 Groups Kyle Ham Current Position: Education Specialist and Bilingual Educator University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Office of Education and Outreach Teri Eastburn, Coordinator, Public Programs University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Office of Education and Outreach

102. NOAA ( National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration) (Coordinated by Dan Winester) BE THERE AT 8:30 a.m. / 1:00 p.m. Groups of 3 Don Mock, William Murtagh, George Sharman, & Sandy MacDonald: NOAA; ESRL (Earth Systems Research Lab); SWPC (Space Weather Prediction Center); NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center)

103. NOAA (cont.) SOS: Science on a Sphere. This a 3D display of global (and astronomic) projected onto a large sphere. The audience can view and walk around the sphere to bet a global view of data sets. NOAA has over 200 data sets, including time-varying ones. Such data sets as atmospheric processes, plate tectonics, topography, lights at night etc. (40 minutes) ESRL and other NOAA (Earth Systems Research Lab): (40 minutes) Greenhouse gas lab weather forecast office Wind profiler High performance computing center Ozone chemistry SWPC: Space Weather Prediction Center (20 minutes) Effect of solar storms on electrical transmission, broadcasts, animal navigation Geomagnetic disturbances NGDC: National Geophysical Data Center (20 minutes) Large array storage Night time lights Paleoclimatology (Tree rings, ice cores, geologic cores)

104. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bob Raynolds Jonathan Bujak Dag Nummedal Ian Miller Peggy LeMone Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit Global Warming/Climate Change – Resource Issues – Alternatives Study Group: FTP SITE: https://sslaccess.elkresources.net/files/

105. Western Interior Paleontological Society QUESTIONS?