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Dr. Casey Brown University of Massachusetts.  Short–Term Forecasting ◦ Predict flows throughout basin on a weekly time step ◦ Source of Information:

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Presentation on theme: "Dr. Casey Brown University of Massachusetts.  Short–Term Forecasting ◦ Predict flows throughout basin on a weekly time step ◦ Source of Information:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Dr. Casey Brown University of Massachusetts

2  Short–Term Forecasting ◦ Predict flows throughout basin on a weekly time step ◦ Source of Information: Antecedent basin conditions and weather forecast  Long-Term Forecasting ◦ Predict seasonal flow regimes 3-6 months ahead of time ◦ Source of Information: Climate teleconnections ◦ Used to determine which years are strong candidates to meet inter-annual eco-targets

3 Change in timing of peak flows in NE Rivers

4 1. Characterize the influence of basin characteristics (e.g., snow) and climate influences (e.g., NAO) on CT River streamflow 2. Develop probabilistic forecasts of streamflow at long lead times (3 – 6 months) 3. Use the “tilt of the odds” to assess conditions for achieving multiple basin objectives

5 Previous studies have found influence of North Atlantic Oscillation

6

7 Climate in Previous Season Predict Shape of Tradeoff Better opportunities for meeting eco-targets Less opportunity for meeting eco-targets

8 Weekly Streamflow Forecasts Optimization ModelSimulation Model Short-Term System Performance Under Standard Operations Short-Term System Performance Under Optimal Operations Operator Judgment Plan for weekly operations

9

10 HYDROLOGY MODELS OF SYE INDEX SITES METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AT SYE INDEX SITES SYE ESTIMATION METHOD STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AT ANY LOCATION IN THE BASIN!

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