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Company Presentation June 1, 2010 Jiying Wang YongHui Wu
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Agenda Recap of Recommendations Sector Summary NII Holding Analysis Verizon Analysis Conclusion
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Recap of Recommendation Increase SIM holding by 30 basis points to bring it to 4% Sell Verizon by 101 basis points Increase NIHD by 131 basis points
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Sector Summary SectorS&P 500 WeightSIM Weight+/- Consumer Discretionary10.55%10.44%-0.11% Consumer Staples10.91%11.71%0.80% Energy11.18%9.76%-1.43% Financials16.47%11.41%-5.07% Health Care11.55%14.63%3.07% Industrials10.76%13.10%2.34% Information Technology18.91%20.18%1.27% Materials3.45%1.64%-1.82% Telecommunication Services 2.73%3.70%0.98% Utilities3.48%2.10%-1.38% Cash0.00%1.26% Dividend Receivables0.00%0.08% 100.00% 0.00%
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Sector Holdings CurrentRecommended+/- SIM Holding3.7%4%0.3% NIHD2.69%4%1.31% VZ1.01%0%-1.01%
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Target Prices CompanyCurrent PriceTarget PriceDividendUpside Potential NIHD$36.70$60N/A64% VZ$27.52$326.8%16%
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NIHD Overview Funded in 1995 as Nextel International, Inc. and changed its name to NII Holdings, Inc. in December 2001 Providing fully integrated mobile communication services in selected Latin American markets Currently operating in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Chile
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NIHD Business Analysis Market Cap of $5.71b High Beta of 2.09 Company in growth phase –High growth rate –Heavily financed through debt Possible factors to affect performance –Exchange rate –Interest rate
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NIHD Financial Analysis
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NIHD DCF Analysis
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NIHD Sensitivity Analysis Discount rate = 10% Terminal growth rate =3% Current price$36.7 Implied equity value/share $66.0 Upside potential80%
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NIHD Valuation Analysis Average price = $60
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Potential Catalysts & Risks Catalysts Global economic recovery Growth of emerging markets Expansion of 3G markets Risks Exchange rates Possible double dip recession
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Brazilian Real to USD
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Chilean Peso to USD
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Mexican Peso to USD
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Argentine Peso to USD
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Peruvian Nuevo Sol to USD
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Verizon Overview The largest mobile operator in the States. The second largest US-based telecom company. Two major business lines: Domestic wireless Offer wireless voice and data products, and other value-added services, as well as sells equipment. Wireline Provide voice, Internet access, broadband video and data, next generation Internet protocol (IP) network services, network access, and long distance services to consumers, carriers, businesses, and government customers.
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VZ Business Analysis Market Cap of $77.79b Beta: 0.62 Company in mature phase –Slow growth rate of wireless unit –Wireline unit is slightly decreasing Possible factors to affect performance –GDP growth –Consumer confidence –Unemployment rate –Interest rate
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VZ Financial Analysis
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VZ DCF Model
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VZ Sensitivity Analysis Current price $27.52 Implied equity value/share $31 Upside potential12.65% Discount rate = 9.5% Terminal growth rate =3%
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VZ Valuation Analysis Absolute Valuation HighLowMedianCurrent#Your Target Multiple *Your Target E, S, B, etc/Share Your Target Price (F x G) A.B.C.D.E.F.G.H. P/Forward E17.611.112.912.7132.3330.29 P/S1.50.81.20.8138.27 P/B2.71.72.22.12.513.8334.58 P/EBITDA5.222.693.503.033.59.5933.57 P/CF6.03.64.33.648.0732.28 Average price: $34
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VZ Summary Catalysts: 4G Technology Verizon iphone! Risks: Its Wireline unit declines year by year and offsets the benefits generated from Wireless unit. Changes of regulation Increased competition Verizon’s financial performance is not very satisfactory.
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NIHD vs. VZ Five Year Stock Comparison
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Conclusion Verizon is a good stock but NIHD just performs better. So we decide to: Sell Verizon (101 BP) Buy NIHD (131 BP to 400 BP) Total Telecom sector holdings – 400 BP (an increase of 30 BP)
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Q&A
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